Mar 25, 2021
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“Experience is a good school. But the fees are high.” – Heinrich Heine
It’s not looking like a particularly positive day for risk assets extending what has already been a painful week. Equity futures were higher earlier but have given up all of their gains are now firmly in the red. Bitcoin prices have also been on the decline falling by more than 7%. Oil prices are lower and the 10-year yield is unchanged. There’s a lot of economic data and Fed-speak on the calendar today, so be on the lookout for headlines related to these events.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events from the US and around the world, including a discussion of recent confidence surveys from major global economies, the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
It’s been a rough week in the equity market as all of the major US indices are down by a minimum of 1.5% over the last five trading days. Indices holding up the best have been the Dow and S&P 100, which is comprised of the 100 largest stocks in the market. At the other end of the spectrum, small-cap stocks have been hit hard. The Russell 2000 is down over 8%, and the Micro-Cap Index is down nearly 11%.
Within individual sectors, there hasn’t been much shelter either. Energy has been the leading sector YTD with a gain of over 30%, but it has also declined more than 4% in the last 5-trading days. Along with Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services haven’t been nearly as strong YTD, but that hasn’t made them immune to weakness as both sectors are down over 3%. The only areas of strength in the last five trading days have been the defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples which have both managed to rally more than 1%.
Mar 24, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, it’s how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” – George Soros
Nasdaq futures are leading the way higher this morning as yields stabilize. Crude oil is also rebounding and bitcoin is on the rise as we head into the final week of the quarter.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events from the US and around the world, including a discussion of Intel’s announcement last night, an update on the latest Markit flash PMI readings for the month of March, equity performance in Asian benchmark indices, the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
Tuesday was a brutal day for the Russell 2000 as it fell more than 3.5% for its worst day in nearly a month. With that decline, the small-cap benchmark also closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since the end of October.
At 96 trading days, the Russell 2000’s streak of closes above its 50-day moving average was the second streak of more than 90 trading days in the last year and also the longest streak in a decade (March 2011). As shown in the chart below, while streaks of 90 or more trading days have been relatively uncommon in the last decade, prior to that there were numerous streaks lasting much longer than 100 trading days.
Mar 23, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“In a wicked world, relying upon experience from a single domain is not only limiting, it can be disastrous.” – David Epstein – Range
US equity futures are shaping up a lot like Monday where the Nasdaq is leading the way, although unlike yesterday where all three major averages were higher on the day, so far it’s just the Nasdaq. Treasury yields and crude oil are both trading lower to start the day as rising COVID cases in Europe have dampened risk appetite.
In Fed news, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan was on CNBC earlier and said he sees inflation for 2021 coming in at a rate of 2.25% to 2.50% but sees the rate of price increases declining again in 2022. Kaplan is only the first of many Fed officials, including Powell, scheduled to speak today, so expect a lot of headlines on that front.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events from the US and around the world, including a discussion of the recent moves in rates, equity performance in Asian benchmark indices, the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has been in a relatively steady downtrend since its high in early February. Last week the SOX briefly traded and closed above that downtrend but quickly reversed back below. Yesterday, the SOX’s rally to kick off the week not only brought the index back above its 50-DMA and downtrend line, but it was also the first time that the index opened and traded above that downtrend line for the entire trading session. The SOX has still underperformed the broader market by a relatively wide margin over the last month, but if it’s going to get back on track, it has to start somewhere.
Mar 22, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“The road to success and the road to failure are almost exactly the same.” – Colin R. Davis
It’s been a while since we’ve had a “vaccine Monday” but today’s supplier of positive headlines is AstraZeneca (AZN). The company announced earlier that its vaccine was 79% effective against symptomatic COVID-19 and 100% effective against severe disease. More importantly, AZN also reported no safety concerns such as the blood clotting issues that had been reported in the EU last week. Unlike prior vaccine Mondays where equity futures have typically surged in reaction to the news led by the DJIA and S&P 500 while the Nasdaq lagged, this morning’s picture is the complete opposite. DJIA futures are actually lower heading into the opening bell, the S&P 500 is flat, Nasdaq futures are up half of one percent, and the 10-year yield is actually lower. With AZN likely to now enter the fray, it’s only a matter of weeks before vaccine shortages in the US turn to gluts.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events from the US and around the world, including a discussion of the chaos in Turkey after its Central Bank chief was fired for raising rates last week, data on Korean Exports, Eurozone Current Account, the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
Also, if you weren’t able to catch it earlier this morning, make sure to check out our interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
Tomorrow marks the one-year anniversary of the S&P 500’s COVID low and what an impressive run it has been. The chart below shows the performance of each of the S&P 500’s components since the close on 3/23/20. Of the 500 names shown, the average gain through Friday’s close has been just over 100%! Even more amazing is the fact that only three stocks in the entire index are down during this span. The worst of the three has been Gilead (GILD). With a decline of just over 10%, the maker of Remdesivir, which originally rallied on the promising prospects of its potential COVID treatment, has been a dog ever since.
On the other end of the spectrum, the top-performing stock has been ViacomCBS (VIAC). Since the close on 3/23. VIAC has rallied nearly 800%. Behind VIAC, four other stocks are up 500% (TSLA, LB, ETSY, and FCX). Notably absent from the list of top performers is the Technology sector. Of the top 50 performing stocks in the S&P 500 since 3/23, only one stock from the Technology sector (Enphase- ENPH) made the cut.
Mar 19, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“If football taught me anything about business, it is that you win the game one play at a time.” – Fran Tarkenton
If football taught us anything, it’s that TV networks (and now streaming services) are still willing to pay an arm and a leg for the rights to broadcast games!
In markets today, futures are hesitantly higher as the major indices look to pick up the pieces from yesterday’s weakness. Obviously, the focus will once again be on US Treasury yields, but economic data won’t have an impact as the calendar is entirely clear.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, an update on Japanese inflation, capital flows in China, UK Consumer Confidence, the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
2021 is shaping up to be one of those years. Yesterday’s 3% decline for the Nasdaq was the fourth daily move of 3%+ up or down already this year. The trading year is only 52 days old, but would you believe that there have only been 15 years in the last 50 that saw more 3% days in an entire year? While this year has been volatile already, keep in mind that last year the Nasdaq experienced 30 3%+ days (the most since 2008).
Through just the first 52 trading days of every year since 1971, there have only been seven other years that saw as many or more than four 3% days in the first 52 trading days of the year. Again, last year at this time there had already been 12 different 3% days, and the record was 16 in both 2001 and 2009.
Mar 18, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.” – John Kenneth Galbraith
After yesterday’s FOMC rate decision and Powell press conference, investors appeared to be comfortable with the Fed’s plan going forward. That sent treasury yields lower and equity futures higher. After sleeping on it, though, investors are having second thoughts. This morning equity futures are in the red with the Nasdaq especially feeling the pain, and Treasury yields are surging. In fact, Nasdaq 100 futures are currently well over 1% lower and threatening to take out their lows from Wednesday morning.
Economic data today was relatively busy with Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed just coming out and Leading Indicators scheduled to come out at 10:00 AM. Initial and Continuing Claims both missed expectations coming in higher than expected. Philly Fed was an enormous beat relative to expectations with the headline reading coming in at 51.8 and one of its highest readings ever and the best since 1973. Prices Paid was also extremely elevated, though, so that won’t help quell concerns over inflation.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, an update on economic data out of Asia and Europe, a recap of all the major central bank announcements since the close yesterday (there were a lot!), the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
The chart below encapsulates the drama in markets that surrounded the FOMC meeting. Yesterday, yields were sharply higher ahead of the meeting and started to come back in leading up to and after the announcement. Overnight, though, the rally in Treasuries and drop in yields subsided, and this morning, no one wants anything to do with US Treasuries as the 10-year yield has risen well above yesterday’s high and 1.7% to its highest levels since January of last year.
