Apr 5, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“If the end doesn’t justify the means, what does?” – Robert Moses
After one of those rare instances where an economic report was released on a day when the equity market was closed, the stock market is finally getting its opportunity to react to Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment report. While most major equity indices around the world remain closed for the Easter holiday, US futures are higher across the board to the tune of roughly 0.5%. The one exception is small-caps where the gains at the open will likely be well over 1%.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including the latest US and international COVID trends as well as our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
Heading into the new week, we wanted to provide a quick snapshot of each S&P 500 sector’s price chart over the last 12 months. Two things about the charts immediately stand out to us. First, all eleven sectors are comfortably above their 50-DMAs which is a sign of healthy breadth across the market spectrum. Secondly, even though every sector is above its 50-DMA and the S&P 500 hit a record high on Thursday, the only sector that also traded at a 52-week high was Real Estate, which accounts for less than 2.5% of the entire index. To us this is a reflection of the healthy rotation we continue to see where when one sector starts to lag, others are there to quickly pick up the slack. In fact, there are currently no sectors that are even 10% from a 52-week high and only two (Energy and Utilities) that are down more than 5% from their respective 52-week highs.
Apr 1, 2021
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“If the end doesn’t justify the means, what does?” – Robert Moses
One day after President Biden outlined his plans for infrastructure, we thought it fitting to turn to Robert Moses, the ruthless modern-day master of infrastructure, for today’s Quote of the Day. During the New Deal, when the Federal Government was looking for ‘shovel-ready’ projects, unlike most cities around the country that had ideas but no plans on how to implement them, Robert Moses was prepared and had both the ideas and the plans drawn up and ready to lay them out. As a result, New York City and the surrounding region received a large share of distributed funds. Ideas a good, but plans to implement them are just as, if not, even more important.
US futures are trading higher to kick off Q2 with Asia trading higher overnight and Europe also strong. Economic data from international markets has been strong as Manufacturing PMIs for the month of March continue to surge. The only US economic data so far today has been jobless claims, and on both an initial and continuing basis, the latest figures came in higher than expected.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including a recap of manufacturing economic data from around the world, a recap of international markets, the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
The first quarter of 2021 was a positive one for US stocks, but the quarter, like the majority of days in it didn’t end on a positive note. The S&P 500 finished the day in positive territory, but a last-hour sell-off clipped those gains considerably. Wednesday’s pattern was a microcosm of the pattern all year, where stocks open higher, rally throughout the trading day, and then sell-off in the last hour and into the close. How weak has the last hour of the trading day been? Well, throughout Q1, despite the S&P 500 trading higher on 54% of all trading days, the last hour was only positive 31% of the time! Relative to all other hourly intervals throughout the trading day, the last hour has been, by far, the least consistent to the upside.
Mar 31, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“End? No, the journey doesn’t end here.” – J.R.R. Tolkien
The first quarter is nearly in the books, but the year has only just begun, and with GameStop and Archegos already, it doesn’t look like 2021 will be a snoozer. Futures are inching higher this morning with the Nasdaq leading the way higher.
Economic data has generally been positive overnight with Chinese PMI and South Korean Industrial Production topping expectations, while inflation data in Europe remains relatively tame.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including a discussion of quarter-end trends, events in Brazil, a recap of international markets, the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
For all the churning in the market lately, it sounds hard to believe that every sector in the S&P 500 is on pace to finish Q1 in the black for the year. Granted, the gains aren’t evenly distributed, but it’s still impressive to see every sector positive on the year. Leading the way higher, Energy’s (XLE) 31% surge tops the list, but the double-digit percentage gains from Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) are nothing to scoff at. Defensive-oriented sectors are unsurprisingly at the bottom of the list as Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Consumer Staples (XLP) are all up 3% or less.
The most surprising sector to some, though, is Technology (XLK) which is at the absolute bottom of the list and just barely hanging on to positive territory for the year with a gain of under 1%. XLK is the only sector below its 50-DMA, and while it’s indicated to open higher today, closing out the quarter above its 50-DMA is going to be tough.
Mar 30, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“The window to the world can be covered by a newspaper.” – Stanislaw Jerzy Lec
It’s more of the same this morning as futures are modestly negative, but higher interest rates are acting as a weight on the Nasdaq and growth stocks in general. The economic calendar is relatively light, with a report on home prices coming out at 9 AM eastern and Consumer Confidence at 10 AM. Crude oil and gold are both down sharply, but bitcoin is higher. In political news, President Biden will speak on Infrastructure this afternoon. In terms of the latest COVID trends, national declines have been inching higher, but the key as we discuss in the Morning Lineup is that among populations that have been widely vaccinated, case counts have remained contained.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including a discussion of the move higher in rates, a recap of international markets, some strong survey related economic data out of Europe, the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
Gold just hasn’t been able to get out of its way this quarter. Despite concerns over inflation, the yellow metal has been weak as interest rates rise. This morning alone, gold is trading down over 1.5% after trading down over 1% yesterday and on the verge of testing its recent lows.
With the quarter coming to a close tomorrow, gold is on pace for a double-digit percentage decline this quarter, making it the worst quarter in nearly five years and just the tenth quarterly decline of more than 10% in the last 45 years.
Mar 29, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.” – Warren Buffett
Media stocks are in focus this morning as the unwind of the Archegos hedge fund that began last week continues today. In today’s Morning Lineup, we provided a rundown of the situation and the key factors that will shape how things play out, so make sure to check that out (pg 4).
Futures are lower as financials that have been caught up in the liquidation look to open lower. Keep in mind also, that despite the weakness at the open, US equities saw major surges into the close on Friday.
Also in today’s report, check out updates on the latest market news and events from the US and around the world, including a summary of the Archegos hedge fund blow-up and its potential impact, profits in China, the rates market, the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
One bank being hit especially hard from the blow-up in the media stocks over the last week has been Nomura. Nomura has seen a lot in the last forty years. From the bursting of the Japanese stock bubble in 1989, the 1987 stock market crash, the failure of Long-Term Capital in the 1990s, and then the credit crisis just over 10 years ago, the bank has faced a number of crises. This morning, the Japanese bank disclosed that it faces $2 billion in losses tied to margin calls, and compared to those prior periods, $2 bln doesn’t have quite the shock value that it used to.
Don’t tell that to the stock though. Overnight, shares of Nomura fell more than 16%, which is the largest one-day decline the stock has experienced in at least 40 years.
Mar 26, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“‘Experience’ is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted.” – Howard Marks
Futures are indicated mostly higher this morning, although Nasdaq futures have been under pressure as yields on the 10-year rise. It’s been a busy morning of economic data, but so far there have been no major outliers relative to expectations.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events from the US and around the world, including a discussion of Chinese Current Account, Japanese Inflation, German sentiment, the latest US and international COVID trends including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.
Within some of the major US indices, it’s a mixed picture with respect to their charts heading into the weekend.
The Russell 2000 broke below its 50-DMA moving average for the first time in over four months earlier this week, and while it bounced at support yesterday, it remains in a bit of limbo heading into today as it sits right between support below and its 50-DMA above.
The Nasdaq 100 has been having a much rougher go of it lately. With yields remaining temperamental, QQQ has been bouncing around in a range below its 50-DMA. Yesterday, it made a lower low relative to earlier in the week, so for now it remains in a tenuous position if you’re a bull on the index.
Lastly, while a number of other indices have been under pressure, the S&P 500 continues to chug along. Yesterday, SPY bounced right at support coinciding with its 50-DMA and uptrend. Bulls will want to see some follow-through after yesterday’s bounce, but if the weakness in the QQQ continues, it will be hard for SPY to maintain its immunity.
