Jun 3, 2021
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“We caution you against investing in our Class A common stock unless you are prepared to incur the risk of losing all or a substantial portion of your investment” – AMC Entertainment
When a company files to sell more than 11 million shares of stock, you wouldn’t expect to see the above statement connected to the offering, but that’s what accompanied the news this morning from AMC Entertainment that it would be selling 11.55 million shares of stock. Did Yogi Berra write the offering documents? At a current share price of about $60, AMC will be able to raise $693 million in this equity offering. To put that in perspective, AMC’s market cap at the start of the year was less than half that at $302 million.
In markets this morning, it’s not looking like a positive day for equities. Futures have been drifting lower for much of the night, but the pace of declines accelerated right around 6 AM. Whether it was a coincidence or not, that also coincided with the release of news that Russia would cut its holdings of US dollar assets from its Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including a recap of some notable economic data out of Asia and Europe, a recap of moves in the crypto space, and the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
Today kicks off a number of data reports for the week concerning employment, and after April’s weaker than expected Non-Farm Payrolls report, there will be a lot of attention on these numbers. The ADP Private Payrolls report kicked things off on a positive note as the headline number blew away expectations (although April’s reading was revised lower). Jobless claims were mixed relative to expectations with Initial claims slightly below forecasts and continuing claims coming in higher than forecasts. Layoff announcements from Challenger Gray and Christmas also were encouraging. Total job cut announcements came in at 24,586, which was slightly higher than last month’s reading of 22,913, but it was also the fifth lowest reading since at least 1999.
Jun 2, 2021
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“Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong.” – Jesse Livermore
It’s a quiet morning as there’s little in the way of major economic releases today. There were a handful of earnings reports overnight from the likes of Advanced Auto (AAP), Hewlett Packard (HPE), and Zoom (ZM). Futures have been trading with a modestly positive bias all night and remain that way this morning. In politics, President Biden is scheduled to meet with Republicans today to try and reach some sort of consensus on infrastructure so we’ll be watching this afternoon for any updates on that front.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including a recap of some notable earnings reports, major economic data out of Asia and Europe, a discussion of the Chinese Property market, and the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
Relative to where they opened yesterday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had disappointing closes finishing near their lows of the day. The small-cap Russell 2000, however, was a different story. While it also experienced a small pullback from its opening levels in early trading, it rebounded and finished near its highs of the day.
From a longer-term perspective, yesterday’s late-day strength in the Russell 2000 sets the stage today for a test of its downtrend from the early March high as it closed yesterday just below its downtrend line. In pre-market trading right now, the Russell 2000 is slightly positive, so as long as those gains can hold, the technical picture for small caps will look incrementally better.
Jun 1, 2021
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“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.” – John Bogle
June is coming in like a bull this morning as equity futures are all trading firmly in positive territory. Generally positive economic data out of Asia and Europe has been the catalyst, and investors will be looking for that trend to continue in the US with the Markit Manufacturing and ISM Manufacturing surveys of the US economy as well as Construction Spending at 10:00 and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report at 10:30.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including a recap of some notable earnings reports, major economic data out of Asia and Europe, and the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
The month of May closed out on a positive note for most sectors. Last week, eight of eleven sectors finished the week in positive territory. Leading the way higher, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Real Estate, and Industrials all traded up over 2% while Utilities, Health Care, and Consumer Staples were the only three sectors to finish the week lower. With last week’s gains, the majority of sectors head into June at overbought levels, although Consumer Discretionary, which was the top-performing sector on the week, is one of just two sectors below its 50-DMA.
May 28, 2021
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“Focus on the 20 percent that makes 80 percent of the difference.” – Marc Benioff
It seems weird to say that a 5% rally in Salesforce.com (CRM) is driving the Dow higher today, but since it was added to the index late last August, Marc Benioff’s company is on pace for one of its largest one-day gains accounting for about half of the Dow’s pre-market gains this morning.
In economic data, it’s been a busy morning but so far there hasn’t been much in the way of surprises. The only other releases on the calendar are Chicago PMI at 9:45 and Michigan Confidence at 10 AM. With the holiday weekend on the horizon, look for this afternoon’s trading to be on the quiet side.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including a recap of some notable earnings reports, major economic data out of Asia and Europe, and the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
Although equity futures are higher this morning, the crypto space is under pressure heading into the long weekend following some cautionary comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda (who says crypto isn’t uncorrelated?). It’s been an interesting week for bitcoin and ether. Throughout the week, they made multiple attempts to break above short-term resistance, but each one was met with selling. In bitcoin’s case, the resistance level was right around $40,000 while for ether it was $2,900. After several unsuccessful attempts at sealing the deal, it looks like traders in both crypto assets have given up heading into the weekend.
May 27, 2021
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“I have thought it my duty to exhibit things as they are, not as they ought to be.” – Alexander Hamilton
We’ve just received a slug of economic data, and it was a mixed bag. Durable Goods Orders saw a pretty big miss at the headline level (-1.3% vs 0.85) but were slightly better than expected after stripping out Transportation (1.0% vs 0.7%). Jobless claims came in better than expected on both an initial (406K vs 425K) and continuing basis (3,642K vs 3,680K). The second look at Q1 GDP was unchanged at 6.4%, but the Price Index and Core PCE both came in higher than expected.
Despite the stronger than expected inflation data, futures have actually seen a modest bounce following the data.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including a recap of some notable earnings reports, major economic data out of Europe, and the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
The charts below come from page seven of our Morning Lineup and show the daily COVID case trends for various regions around the world. The country that stood out more than any others in recent weeks has been India, but the daily number of new cases has nearly been cut in half as the surge part of the recent wave burns itself out. Looking at other major countries/regions, most have been on the decline, but there has been a modest uptick in cases in both Brazil and Chile although neither country is close to its highs from the Spring. Meanwhile, here at home the daily number of new cases continues to shrink and is now below 100 new daily cases per million.
May 26, 2021
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“The history of mankind is the history of money losing value.” – Milton Friedman
It’s been a quiet news morning, but that hasn’t kept futures from rallying. Treasuries are essentially flat, equities are modestly higher, and bitcoin is bouncing in a big way and back above the $40,000 level (for now).
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including a recap of some notable earnings reports, major economic data out of Asia and Europe, and the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
After an initial surge in the early days of COVID, the dollar has been on the defensive for the last year now. We saw a modest bounce earlier this year, but the rally in the Bloomberg Dollar Index stalled out in March just shy of its 200-DMA and is now back to testing 52-week lows from earlier this year.
Current levels for the Bloomberg Dollar Index represent an important line in the sand as it’s nearing the lowest levels in more than five years. Looking at the Bloomberg Dollar Index on a longer-term basis, we can see just how important the 1,100 level is. From 2005 through late 2014, there were only a handful of days where it ever traded above that level, but after breaking above 1,100 in 2015, it hasn’t looked back since. If that level does not hold going forward, it could mark an important turning point from a strong to weak dollar environment, and that would have implications on many asset classes and investment strategies.
