Mar 20, 2026
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“The longest way must have its close – the gloomiest night will wear on to a morning.” ― Harriet Beecher Stowe
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
A negative week is on pace to finish with a negative session as the S&P 500 looks to finish lower for the fourth week in a row and the sixth down week in the last seven. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are both down about 0.5% but off their overnight lows. Where we close, though, will depend almost entirely on the price of oil, which is down 1% to $95.15 per barrel. Treasury yields are modestly higher, with the 10-year yield just under 4.3%, while gold is up 1.3% and Bitcoin is holding above $70K.
In Asia overnight, most major equity indices in the region were lower, although the KOSPI rallied 0.3% to finish up 5.4% for the week. In Europe, we’re seeing more muted performance to close out the week. The STOXX 600 is down 0.1%, which would put it down more than 2% for the week, but Spain has bucked the negative trend, rallying 1% today and putting it into positive territory for the week.
There’s no economic or major earnings data on the calendar today, so geopolitical headlines will dictate the market’s performance.
Heading into today’s session, the S&P 500 is down nearly 4% this month, which is unsurprising given the war in the Middle East. It’s only natural in times of geopolitical uncertainty for investors to move out of riskier assets into the safety of treasuries or even gold, the ultimate port in geopolitical storms. So, how are those two asset classes doing this month? Long-term treasuries, as proxied by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT), are down 3.7%, which is basically in line with the S&P 500, while gold (GLD) is down more than triple either of the other two, with a decline of 11.9%. Just when you think you have it all figured out.
Gold’s double-digit percentage decline this month is on pace for the largest monthly decline in the commodity since June 2013 and, if it holds, would rank as the eighth largest one-month decline in gold since at least 1975. What’s even more interesting is that this month’s decline follows a double-digit percentage gain in February.
The chart below shows gold’s performance since 1975, and each red dot shows months when it declined 10% or more. Most of these declines occurred either early on or well into longer-term downtrends. There were some exceptions, though. The decline in October 2008 occurred right near the low for that period, and after the decline in November 1978, gold more than tripled over the next year.
Looking at just the periods when gold declined by at least 10% following a double-digit percentage gain. Here, the sample size is much smaller, with just three other occurrences. The two most recent, in 2011 and 1983, were followed by years of weakness, while the one other occurrence in 1978 was the one period where gold quickly tripled.
Mar 19, 2026
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“If you don’t understand what the professor is saying, don’t dismiss the possibility that he might be wrong.” – Paul Volcker
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a relatively strong start to the week, where it looked like the market would be able to look past the spike higher in energy prices, continued tensions in the Middle East and the stubbornly high level of crude oil prices have pushed the S&P 500 back into the red for the week, with further downside in store for today. S&P 500 futures are trading down 0.4%, which would put the S&P 500 below its 200-day moving average (DMA). The Nasdaq, which already closed below its 200-DMA yesterday, is expected to add to that breakdown with a decline of 0.5%.
International markets had a terrible night, with most major averages in the region down at least 2% and in most cases much more. That’s the same trend in Europe as well, with the STOXX 600 down over 2%, as is the case with most indices in the region.
As we’ve been pointing out all along, the declines are all about energy prices, and this morning, they’re not helping out as WTI trades up 2% to more than $98 per barrel, while Brent trades up by nearly 7% to $115 per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI is now a monstrously high $16+ per barrel.
Treasury yields are moving higher as investors fear the inflationary impacts of rising energy prices, and the 10-year yield is now testing 4.3%. Gold prices are plunging more than 5% to under $4,700 per ounce, and Bitcoin is back below $70K.
The economic calendar is relatively busy this morning with jobless claims and Philly Fed at 8:30, while New Home Sales and Wholesale Inventories will hit the tape at 10 AM. Jobless claims came in lower than expected on an initial basis but slightly higher than expected on a continuing basis, while the Philly Fed was actually better than expected. With everything going on in the Middle East, though, the data is basically meaningless.
As the quote of the day notes, in many aspects of life, change has a way of happening slowly and then all at once. For months, the S&P 500 has been trading in a sideways range, consolidating the gains from the April lows. Then, all of the sudden we have a day like yesterday where the S&P 500 sells off a not necessarily dramatic 1.4%, but then all of the sudden, we’re looking at an S&P 500 whose 50-day moving average (DMA) has just started to slope downward just as the index is on the verge of trading below its 200-DMA for the first time since last spring. Steady uptrend to sideways range and now a potential downtrend? Change happens slowly until it doesn’t.
With the S&P 500 slowly (and now more suddenly) trending lower, investor sentiment has also been on the decline. In the latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment declined from an already low level of 31.9% to 30.4%, which is the lowest level since last September, as the uptrend in sentiment since the lows early last year has been firmly broken.
With this week’s decline, bullish sentiment has now declined for a record seven straight weeks. That’s now tied with the seven-week streak from May 1993 for the longest weekly losing streak in the survey’s history. Behind these two streaks, there were three others (Feb 2000, Jan 06, and Jan 2025) that lasted six weeks. Based on how the market traded yesterday, if we don’t see an improvement in the next couple of days, we would expect that this current streak could move into first place all on its own.
Mar 18, 2026
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“If you don’t understand what the professor is saying, don’t dismiss the possibility that he might be wrong.” – Paul Volcker
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC Overtime yesterday to discuss the sideways trending market and volatility underneath the surface. To view the segment, click on the image below.
Futures are still green, but they have given up most of their earlier gains as we approach the opening bell. It appears some of the weakness may be tied to reports of a strike on some Iranian energy facilities. Conversely, oil prices are lower but have erased most of their earlier losses. Treasury yields are basically unchanged, gold is down close to 2%, while Bitcoin is down over 2% and back below $73K.
Equities in Asia had a very strong session overnight, with the Nikkei up 2.9%, while South Korea surged 5.0%. Other major indices in the region were also green but by less than 1%. Catalysts behind the move include a lack of continued upside in oil prices, stronger-than-expected export orders in Japan, and positive comments from Samsung related to AI chip demand being strong.
European stocks have also started the day on a positive note, with the STOXX 600 up 0.6%, led higher by Spain, Italy, and France, which are all up over 1%. Besides lower oil prices, February CPI also rose less than expected (0.6% vs 0.7%). Tomorrow, we’ll also get policy decisions from the ECB, BoE, and SNB.
The economic calendar is busy this morning with PPI at 8:30, followed by Factory Orders and Durable Goods at 10 AM Eastern. After that, attention will shift to the FOMC, where Powell & Co are widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 2 PM. Investors will be focused on the press conference and summary of economic projections, but with all the uncertainty around oil supplies, take them with a grain of salt. The PPI just hit the tape and the numbers were much higher than expected, so that has pushed futures into negative territory.
In our FOMC meeting preview report sent out yesterday, we highlighted some of the key trends surrounding Fed days. The report included an overview of the market’s performance leading up to meetings and how it performs on the day of the announcement, how the market performs based on what the FOMC does (or doesn’t do), as well as how it performs on an intraday basis based on different scenarios.
One of the charts included showed the performance of the S&P 500 between FOMC meetings, and heading into today’s announcement, the S&P 500 is down about 4% since its last meeting in January. As shown, that ranks as the worst inter-meeting performance in a year and also ranks in the 15th percentile of all inter-meeting periods since 1994, when the Fed first started announcing its rate decisions on the day of its meetings. It gets worse than the last six weeks, but not much worse!
The market is currently pricing in a greater than 99% likelihood of no change in rates by the Fed today, and with the war in Iran taking center stage, there is not likely to be nearly as much attention put on Powell’s penultimate press conference this afternoon. When it comes to policy, though, there have been some major shifts in market expectations for policy between now and the last meeting for 2026 in December.
The chart below shows the change in expectations for various policy levels since the Fed last cut rates in December. While the market is currently pricing in an almost one in three chance of no change in rates between now and December, less than three weeks ago, the market was pricing in a less than 5% chance of no change in rates. Instead, the odds were heavily on cuts with a 41% chance of two cuts, a 29% chance of three cuts, a 15% chance of four cuts, and just a 17% chance of only one cut. Today, the trend has completely reversed. There’s now a greater than 70% likelihood of one cut or less, and barely more than a one in four chance of two or more cuts.
To show the shift more clearly, the chart below shows the change in market pricing for no change in rates versus two or more cuts. For three months, market expectations were pretty steady, but then that quickly changed at the end of February with one word – Iran.
Mar 17, 2026
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“Competitive golf is played mainly on a five-and-a-half-inch course… the space between your ears.” – Bobby Jones
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As hard as the bears have been working to push futures lower overnight and this morning, the luck of the Irish won’t quit and has pushed futures on the S&P 500 and the Dow into the green. The Nasdaq isn’t quite there, but it is well off its overnight lows. Treasuries are modestly higher, pushing yields slightly lower, while crude oil rebounds more than 2% to $95 per barrel. Gold prices are fractionally higher, and Bitcoin is basically flat.
It’s a quiet day for economic data today, with Pending Home Sales and Leading Indicators the only two reports on the calendar, and both will be released at 10 AM.
In international markets, Asian stocks were mixed overnight, while Europe is mostly higher, with the STOXX 600 up 0.5%. Those gains come despite ZEW Economic Sentiment Indices coming in significantly weaker than expected, as concerns over the war in Iran weigh on sentiment.
Can it get any worse for airline stocks? After already dealing with the government shutdown where TSA agents aren’t getting paid, the war with Iran has caused jet fuel prices to double and raised the threats of terrorism, which, at the margin, causes travel plans to decline. Since its peak in early February, the US Global Jets ETF (JETS) has plunged more than 20%, effectively erasing the gains from late last year after it broke out of a multi-month trading range. At $24.58, the ETF closed yesterday right near support at the low end of that prior range.
With all the headwinds facing the sector, it’s not looking like the Q1 earnings season is a period that airlines are looking forward to. Despite that backdrop, it was surprising to see comments from Delta CEO Ed Bastian this morning where he said that despite the negative impact of rising energy prices on company margins, the weakness has been completely offset by exceptionally strong demand. In his interview on CNBC, Bastian noted that “We’ve seen eight of the top 10 sales days in our history this quarter, and five of those just within the last two weeks, within just the last week of March”. With demand like that, we can only imagine what the company’s quarterly results would have looked like had there not been a war!
Looking at the airline stocks from a longer-term perspective, the timing of the Iran war couldn’t have been worse. At its recent peak in February, the JETS ETF traded above $31 and was within a dollar of its pre-Covid highs. It’s been a long slog for the sector, but after more than six years, it’s almost back to even.
Mar 16, 2026
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“Philosophy is common sense with big words.” – James Madison
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s been a tough few weeks for equities. After months of trading in a sideways range, the war in Iran has put an added weight on the bearish side of the scale, pushing stocks lower. All of the major US indices are below their 50-DMAs, and the 200-DMAs are now starting to come into play as well. The short-term key has been and will continue to be oil prices. With no spike this morning, equities are taking the opportunity to rally, and we’ve been picking up steam as the morning drags on. The S&P 500 is on pace to gap up 0.75% as the open, while the Nasdaq is up closer to 1%. Now, let’s see if the gains can hold!
Outside of equities, treasury yields are falling with the 10-year yield down 5 bps to 4.24%, and crude oil falls almost 2% to just under $97 per barrel. Gold prices are down just over 1% and barely hanging on to $5,000, while bitcoin is up nearly 3% and above $73K.
Asian stocks were flat to higher to start the week on the optimism that oil prices didn’t spike more after the weekend. Japanese stocks traded down 0.1% while China was down 0.8%. Hong Kong, India, and South Korea, however, all rallied more than 1%. The declines in China came despite better-than-expected February data for Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Investment.
European stocks have taken a more muted start to the week. The STOXX 600 is down 0.1% while Germany is up 0.3% and Italy drops 0.3%. It will be a busy week for central banks on the continent as the ECB, BoE, and SNB all have meetings.
It’s a relatively busy day for economic data this morning, with the Empire Manufacturing report for March hitting the tape at 8:30, followed by Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15. Homebuilder sentiment will come out at 10 AM. Another area of focus today will be on Nvidia (NVDA) as CEO Jensen Huang will give the keynote speech at his company’s GTC conference at 2 PM Eastern. Looking ahead, the Fed will announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday.
The S&P 500 has declined for four straight weeks now, but still hasn’t even declined 5% from its closing high in late January, so while it’s been a slump, it could be worse. Even with the relatively modest declines, as we discussed in Friday’s Bespoke Report, it still finds itself in what we consider ‘extreme’ oversold levels as it closed more than two standard deviations below its 50-DMA. Along with the S&P 500, the majority of other US index ETFs also finished off last week in extreme oversold territory, and the ones that aren’t are still in oversold territory.
Last week, there was a little bit of rotation in the market where the indices that had been performing the best YTD (small and mid-caps) experienced the largest declines, while large caps, which had been the weakest, were down less. It’s all relative, though, as even the best-performing US indices last week were still down over 1%.
Similar to the relative outperformance of large caps versus small caps last week, US stocks outperformed their global peers once again last week, further digging out of their relative hole on a YTD basis. While the S&P 500 was down 1.5%, European stocks traded down by 2.5% last week, putting them into ‘extreme’ oversold territory with the US. The only areas of the world not oversold heading into the new week are Latin America (ILF) and Asia Pacific (VPL).
With equities under pressure, investors must be taking shelter in the safety of gold, right? Not really. Physical gold hit a speed bump last week, falling more than 2.5%. Despite the decline, though, it’s still up over 16% YTD and above its 50-DMA, so don’t shed too many tears for the gold bugs. One area of surprising strength last week was in Bitcoin (IBIT). While it’s still down close to 20% this year, it managed to rally more than 4.5% last week. As they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Mar 13, 2026
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“Don’t let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do.” – John R. Wooden
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The market has one more day to salvage what’s been a negative week for stocks, and so far, it’s making a valiant effort. Futures on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all up 0.39%. With today being both Friday the 13th and the last day of trading into a weekend, it’s surprising to see equities catching a bid. Treasury yields are modestly lower, with the 10-year yield at 4.25%, and oil prices are down 2% to $93.50 per barrel. Gold prices are also pulling back, but Bitcoin is trading up close to 3% and above $72K.
Asian stocks ended what was already a down week on a negative note. The Nikkei was down over 1%, which took its weekly decline to over 3%, while China finished the week with a 0.7% decline, and India was down over 5%. Higher oil prices are a major pain point for the Asian economy, so the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains cut off, the more pressure it will put on these economies.
Equity performance has been more muted in Europe. The STOXX 600 is little changed for both the day and week, and no major index in the region is up or down more than 0.5% on the day. Industrial Production for January fell 1.5% versus expectations for an increase of 0.6%. Weaker growth, coupled with increasing inflationary pressures from rising energy prices, is the type of cooking markets would prefer not to see on the menu.
The economic calendar is jam-packed this morning with most of the reports (Personal Income, Personal Spending, GDP, PCE, Durable Goods) hitting the tape as we send this out, but at 10 AM Eastern, we’ll also get Michigan Confidence and JOLTS.
With the S&P 500 down 1% on the week heading into today, we’re on pace for the eighth negative week in the first eleven weeks of the year. With just three positive weeks, it’s been one of the weakest starts to a year for the S&P 500 in the post-WWII period. If the S&P 500 doesn’t rally more than 1% today, it will be the eighth year since 1945 that it has had three or less positive weeks to start a year. Ironically, last year also started weak, and while the market remained shaky through early April, it ended up being a good year. Before last year, the last time the year started out this inconsistently was in 2009, and the only year where there were fewer positive weeks to start a year was in 1982.
Two groups you would expect to benefit from the war in the Middle East are energy and defense stocks. Right out of the playbook, Energy stocks have rallied since the war broke out, but defense stocks have taken a sell-the-news response.
The chart below shows the performance of the iShares US Aerospace and Defense ETF (ITA) over the last year. While the ETF has surged over the last 12 months, it has struggled since the first missiles were fired. While ITA gapped up the Monday after markets reopened for trading after the war started, it’s been drifting lower ever since. Yesterday, it closed below its 50-DMA for the first time this year, and as Bloomberg noted in a news story overnight, the ETF had the largest outflow of assets in its history yesterday. Understandably, investors would take profits after the rally of the last year, but it’s interesting to see it follow the opposite path of Energy stocks.
Below, we show the ten largest holdings in the ITA ETF and where each one closed relative to its trading range yesterday. Over the last week, all ten stocks are lower and some by a lot. General Electric (GE) and Boeing (BA) are the ETF’s two largest holdings, and both stocks are down more than 6% in the last week alone. For BA, that decline has taken it more than 12% below its 50-DMA and into ‘extreme’ oversold territory (2+ standard deviations below 50-DMA).
