May 20, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Software is eating the world, but AI is going to eat software.” – Jensen Huang, May 2017
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures have been moving higher all morning, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are indicated to open firmly higher. Treasury yields are modestly lower, with the 10-year yield still at 4.65%, while crude oil falls over 2% to $101.80. Gold is basically flat, and Bitcoin is up 1% to $77,500.
Overnight, Asia was lower across the board with the Nikkei down 1.2%, while other countries in the region were down by smaller amounts. In Europe, the tone has been more positive with the STOXX 600 up 0.4%, led higher by a 0.7% gain in France. The gains have been fueled by reports that the EU has reached a trade agreement with the US to sidestep additional tariffs.
There’s no data on the calendar today, but we will hear from a few Fed speakers before the main event after the close when Nvidia (NVDA) reports results. While the company’s embrace of AI has been a major contributor to the stock’s rally, we were struck by the quote above regarding AI and software. AI’s impact on software may have only been realized by the market in the last six months or so, but Jensen Huang was warning of its impact all the way back in 2017!
Just given its roughly 7.5% weight in the S&P 500, how NVDA reacts to earnings will have a material impact on the market’s performance tomorrow. NVDA has been on a roll heading into the report as the stock rallied more than 33% off its March low and closed yesterday more than 11% above its 50-day moving average (DMA).
You’ve probably heard people saying, “as goes Nvidia, so goes the market,” and while the magnitude of the stock’s move has been larger than the S&P 500, the patterns of the two over the last two years have been remarkably similar.
Since the launch of ChatGPT, NVDA’s relative strength versus the S&P 500 has followed a steady upward trend with periods of sharp outperformance followed by periods of consolidation. After trading sideways versus the market for nearly a year, since the March low, the stock appears to be attempting a new leg of outperformance. How the stock reacts to today’s earnings report could go a long way in determining if the latest attempt is successful.
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
May 19, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The future starts today, not tomorrow.” – Pope John Paul II
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures have been losing steam as we approach the opening bell, with the biggest recent winners leading the losses. S&P 500 futures are indicated to open nearly 0.5% lower, while the Nasdaq is poised to gap down 0.75%. Treasuries aren’t doing much this morning as the 10-year yield is modestly lower but still above 4.6%. Crude oil is little changed but elevated as the Middle East is on edge over whether the US will launch a new round of attacks on Iran. Gold and Bitcoin are both fractionally lower.
In Asia, it was a mixed session with the Nikkei down 0.5% following a modestly stronger than expected GDP report, while China was up nearly 1%. With AI-related stocks coming under pressure yesterday, South Korea fell 3.3%.
With tech and AI-related stocks leading the selling pressure, European stocks are much more immune, and the STOXX 600 is bucking the trend of weakness with a gain of 0.8%. Germany is leading the way higher with a gain of 1.4%, while Italy lags with just a marginal gain.
In the US today, it’s a quiet day for data with Pending Home Sales at 10 AM. On a housing-related note, though, shares of Home Depot (HD) are trading marginally lower after reporting earnings this morning. Management noted that while the consumer continues to “defer their spending on larger projects…consistent with what they’ve told us the last few years,” they remain engaged.
Divergent market breadth usually gets the most attention when the S&P 500 trades higher, but the net number of stocks trading higher on the day is negative. Yesterday was the opposite, where the S&P 500 traded lower, but most stocks in the index finished the day higher. At the sector level, yesterday was also net positive as seven sectors traded higher while just four traded lower. With Technology being one of those sectors that traded lower, though, it dragged the entire market into the red with it.
For all the talk recently about how narrow breadth has been, the YTD picture of sector performance is also surprisingly positive. While the S&P 500 is 8.1% higher YTD, seven sectors have outperformed the index on a YTD basis, while just four have declined.
Where the big breadth divergence has occurred is since the low on 3/30. In the seven weeks since then, the S&P 500 is up 16.7%, but just two sectors – Technology and Communication Services – have outperformed. What really stands out is how many sectors have outperformed the S&P 500 by A LOT since 3/30. As shown in the chart, besides Technology and Communication Services, the only other sector that is even close to performing in line with the index is Consumer Discretionary.
Comparing the performance of the market cap and equalweight S&P 500 so far this year, while the market cap-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed, it’s not as though the divergence has been all that wide. While there have been times throughout the year when one version has significantly outperformed the other, in the bigger picture, they have largely cancelled each other out.
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
May 18, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The future starts today, not tomorrow.” – Pope John Paul II
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Last week’s Trump-Xi summit, which failed to produce any meaningful results, coupled with data suggesting inflationary pressures in the economy, has left stocks facing an uphill battle. That pressure has continued into the new week. S&P 500 futures were firmly lower but have rebounded on reports from Iran that the US will offer a temporary waiver on Iranian oil sanctions. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were indicated to gap down by about 0.5% at the open, but are now just modestly negative, while the 10-year yield is fractionally lower. Crude oil prices are modestly higher, and gold and Bitcoin are lower, with the latter trading back down below 77K.
In Asia, it was a mixed session with Japan and Hong Kong both down 1% while South Korea had a fractional gain of 0.3%. Economic data in China disappointed with April Retail Sales rising just 0.2% while Industrial Production missed forecasts by close to two full percentage points (4.1% vs 6.0%).
In Europe, the STOXX 600 is down 0.4% with Italy down close to 2% after reporting a smaller-than-expected March trade surplus. The UK is trading 0.3% higher as reports suggest PM Starmer is planning to step down.
Last week ended on a down note with the S&P 500 declining through the last two hours of the trading session to finish down near the lows of the day. It was a close call at the end of the day on Friday, but the S&P 500 managed to clock its seventh straight week of gains. That’s the longest winning streak since a 9-week streak of gains in December 2023 and the 34th streak of at least seven weeks since WWII.
While the S&P 500 may have finished last week higher, breadth remains weak. As of Friday’s close, just 44% of stocks in the S&P 500 were trading above their 50-day moving average, which is hardly the type of reading you would expect to see with a market right near record highs. After a sharp rebound off the April lows, the percentage of stocks above their 50-DMA has been steadily declining for a few weeks now, even as the index has continued higher.
It doesn’t officially start for another month, but the unofficial start to summer kicks off this weekend, just after the unofficial end to earnings season on Thursday, when Walmart (WMT) reports. In the week leading up to the summer season, stocks have tended to have a modestly positive return. Since 1971, when the last Monday of May became the official observance of Memorial Day, the S&P 500’s median performance during the week was a gain of 0.29% with positive returns just under two-thirds of the time. That said, last year’s decline of 2.6% leading up to Memorial Day weekend was the worst pre-holiday performance for the S&P 500 since 2007, and the fifth worst since 1971. Who wants a hot dog with their burger!
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
May 15, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I always like to look on the optimistic side of life, but I am realistic enough to know that life is a complex matter.” – Walt Disney
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It may be Friday, but investors are in no mood to celebrate as equity futures are sharply lower. The Nasdaq is leading the losses, declining 1.28% while the S&P 500 is poised to open down by just under 1% (-0.90%). Treasury yields continue to march higher as they have all week, and in the commodity space, WTI crude oil is spiking 3% to just under $104 per barrel while gold is down over 2.5%. Bitcoin is also lower, falling by just 1%.
The weakness in US futures follows a lousy night in Asia. The Nikkei fell 2%, China was down over 1%, and South Korea plunged over 6%. Following these declines, all of Asia’s major indices finished the week lower. Higher yields contributed to the negative tone, and in South Korea, a potential labor strike at Samsung pressured that stock.
Weakness in Asia worked its way into Europe, and stocks are likewise lower across the board with declines of more than 1%. Here again, the primary culprit is higher yields, although CPI in Italy rose less than expected.
Getting back to the US, there’s not much in the way of earnings reports this morning, but at 8:30, we’ll get the release of the May Empire Manufacturing report, followed by Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15.
With inflation headlining the week’s economic data, and much of it surprising to the upside, yields have been an unavoidable and uncomfortable focus for investors. Almost across the entire yield curve, we’ve seen yields move higher this week, pushing the prices of the underlying bonds lower.
The snapshot of Treasury ETFs across the yield curve shows the story. Except for the shortest duration treasuries, prices have moved lower over the last five trading days (since last Thursday’s close), and the magnitude of the declines increases the further you go out on the curve. The magnitude of the declines hasn’t been extreme, but any treasury ETF with a duration of more than a year is currently oversold and will only get more oversold at the open today. YTD, it’s also been a year to forget, with declines nearly across the board.
Of all the points on the yield curve, the 30-year is probably at the biggest crossroads. For nearly three years now, right above 5% has been a level the 30-year has flirted with multiple times, but each time it got there, the sellers didn’t have the firepower for a meaningful breakout. This week has been the third major test of that level as the yield pushes up towards 5.10% this morning. Will the third time be the charm or a strikeout?
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is the opposite of the 30-year yield. Prices plunged during 2022 and into early 2023 as the Fed hiked rates and inflation surged. As price pressures eased, yields and treasury prices stabilized, and while there was a rally off the 2023 lows into mid-2024, momentum quickly stalled out. Ever since then, prices have been stuck in the mid-80s, and this morning, TLT is trading down over 1% and testing support right around $84. It’s been a multi-year bear market for fixed income in the post-COVID era, and if these support levels don’t hold, the sector could be in store for a new leg lower.
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
May 14, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Chinese restaurants in America today outnumber the five largest fast food chains in the US all combined.” – Donald Trump
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures are in rally mode this morning as strong earnings from Cisco (CSCO) push that stock to record highs. The S&P 500 is on pace to open higher by about 0.3% while the Nasdaq is up 0.2%. Dow futures are leading the way, gaining 0.81%, which would put the index back above 50,000. The picture for US markets is positive now, but there’s a busy schedule of economic data on the calendar, kicking off with jobless claims and Retail Sales at 8:30.
Treasury yields are pulling back a bit with the 10-year yield down 4 bps to 4.44%. Oil prices are modestly lower, but WTI remains above $100. There have been no major developments out of the Middle East. Both gold and Bitcoin are little changed.
Asian markets were mixed overnight, with Japan down 1%, while Chinese stocks fell 1.5%. South Korea, meanwhile, bucked the trend, rallying 1.8%. The meetings between Trump and Xi and their entourages are obviously the major story of the day, and investors will be looking for any headlines coming from those meetings. In Europe, equities are higher across the board with the STOXX 600 up 0.6%, led higher by a 1.5% rally in Germany.
With all the attention shifting to China over the last 24 hours, investors rotated into Chinese stocks yesterday as the KraneShares China Internet ETF (KWEB) rallied just under 5% on strong volume for its best day since late January. Despite the rally, the stock finished yesterday’s session just below the downtrend line that has been in place since last October. KWEB has clearly stabilized since early April following steady losses over the preceding six months, but for bulls to get excited, they’ll need to see that downtrend get broken.
Chinese tech and US stocks have followed interesting paths over the last decade. While the performance was a close race between the world’s two superpowers in the last half of the last decade, in the post-Covid era, the two ETFs have followed diverging paths. Five years ago, the performance of KWEB and SPY in the prior five years was nearly identical. Since then, they have moved completely in opposite directions. As a result, the trailing 10-year performance of SPY is a gain of over 250% compared to a decline of 15% for KWEB! You can debate all you want about which world leader has the upper hand on a diplomatic basis heading into this summit, but from a market perspective, Trump is holding the nuts.
The relative strength of KWEB versus SPY further illustrates the sharp contrast. Chinese tech stocks fell off a cliff (almost literally) in the second half of 2021 and haven’t recovered since. Just in the last two weeks, the relative strength of KWEB versus SPY hit a record low.
At the individual stock/ADR level, Chinese stocks have experienced mixed returns this year. The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows where nine of the largest/most active Chinese ADRs are trading relative to their trading ranges. YTD, some of these ETFs have seen big gains while others are down double-digits.
On a short-term basis, practically all these ADRs are doing well, as Pinduoduo (PDD) is the only one trading below its 50-DMA, while Trip.com (TCOM) is the only other ETF on the list that is not currently at overbought levels.
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
May 13, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“We should keep on going along the path of globalization. Globalization is good… when trade stops, war comes.” – Jack Ma
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street on Tuesday to discuss markets, semis, and inflation. To view the segment, click on the image below.
It’s hard to call yesterday’s decline (-0.16% in the S&P 500 and -0.71% in the Nasdaq) a dip, but investors have stepped in to buy it this morning as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are poised to erase yesterday’s losses at the open. Treasury yields are little changed, crude oil is fractionally lower, gold is higher, and Bitcoin is modestly lower but still above $80K.
The positive tone in US futures follows an up night in Asia as the Nikkei rallied 0.8% and South Korea jumped 2.6%. Chinese stocks are up 0.7% as Air Force One is touching down in Beijing as we type this.
In Europe, the tone is mixed with the STOXX 600 up 0.3% as Germany leads (+0.6%) and France and Spain decline fractionally. GDP in the Eurozone increased 0.1%, which was inline with expectations, while employment increased slightly more than expected, although French unemployment unexpectedly increased from 7.9% up to 8.1%.
The only economic report on the calendar this morning was April PPI, and boy, was it a clunker. Headline PPI surged 1.4% – not y/y but m/m while the core reading surged 1.0% versus estimates for an increase of just 0.3%. The headline index was only forecast to increase 0.5%. PPI tends to be more volatile than CPI, but these numbers are hot, hot, hot. As you would expect, the immediate response in the futures market was for yields to spike higher while equities erased half of their pre-release gains.
It was bound to happen at some point. After seemingly going up every day lately, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) declined just over 3% yesterday after falling as much as 6.7% on an intraday basis. Even for semis, swings and declines of that magnitude are notable, but looking at the chart, you can barely see them. Even after that drop, the SOX is still 31% above its 50-day moving average.
We were curious to see how common it is for the SOX to fall more than 2.5% just one day after closing at an all-time high. Since 1995, it’s happened 23 other times. You know when the last occurrence was? Last Thursday! It was also the fourth occurrence this year.
The chart below shows each prior occurrence with a red dot. While there were certainly other occurrences spread sporadically over the years, the only other time they were as frequent as the last five years were during the mid-1990s, right up to the 2000 peak. That’s a parallel that has come up a lot lately, with the trillion-dollar question being where we are in that comparison – 1998 or early 2000.
We’ve discussed the lack of strong market breadth on up days several times in recent weeks, but yesterday we saw the opposite as the S&P 500 declined even as its net advance/decline line was positive. That divergence marked the third straight day and the 28th time this year that price and breadth moved in opposite directions.
The chart below shows the frequency of days by year when price and breadth diverged. Over the last ten years, we’ve seen a steady increase in the number of occurrences, and in both 2024 and 2025, the S&P 500 saw a record number of divergent days. As mentioned above, we’ve already seen 28 occurrences this year. If that pace continues, this year’s total would spike up to 77, far eclipsing the records of the prior two years.
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
