May 22, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The president wants lower rates… He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that.” – Scott Bessent
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Equity futures have been weakening all morning as yields have risen. Oil prices are lower as OPEC+ mulls another production increase, and Bitcoin is above $111K. The House passed its tax bill, and we’re approaching a slew of economic data about to be released after what has to this point been a quiet week for data.
The President and Treasury Secretary may want and be focused on the level of yields, but that’s not what they’re getting. While the 10-year US Treasury yield still hasn’t reached a new high for the year, the 30-year yield broke out above resistance yesterday, trading as high as 5.11% and then adding to those gains this morning and reaching a yield of 5.14%. From a technical perspective, the move higher in yield looks like a textbook breakout, and if that pattern played out, it would suggest higher rates ahead.
From a longer-term perspective, 5.11% was an important level for the 30-year yield. Looking at a two-year chart, it represents the high from Q4 2023, and if current levels of 5.14% hold, we could be in for a new leg higher in yields, which would spell more headaches for equities.
May 21, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Zeroing in on the best sectors or the best regions of the world is great, but zeroing in on the very best individual stocks is the key to making truly impressive profits.” – Lou Navellier
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Below is a link to our recent appearance on Lou Navellier’s show — Market Buzz — where we had a nice conversation about stocks! Please watch when you have a chance.
It’s not a good day to be a bull this morning as S&P 500 futures are down about 0.50%. It was a steady move lower right up until around about 6:30 AM Eastern when there was some stabilization and even a modest bounce.
There’s not much in the way of catalysts driving the market weakness, but yields are higher as the 30-year treasury ticks up above 5% while the 10-year yield jumps back above 4.5%. As Republicans look to pass the Big Beautiful Bill, there has been some headway made in the SALT Cap negotiations with Speaker Johnson confirming that the cap will be lifted to $40,000, and the deficit implications of that agreement could be helping to drive the move higher in yields.
The economic calendar is light once again today, and in terms of earnings reports, since the close yesterday, some of the more notable reports have come from Palo Alto (PANW), Toll Brothers (TOL), Lowe’s (LOW), and Target (TGT).
After missing EPS forecasts yesterday, Home Depot (HD) broke a streak of 19 straight quarters of exceeding bottom-line forecasts, which was the longest streak of EPS beats for the stock since at least 2001. This morning, HD’s largest competitor, Lowe’s (LOW), reported earnings, and unlike HD, it was able to beat EPS forecast and extended its record streak of EPS beats to 24. That’s six years!
The chart below shows historical streaks of EPS beats for both stocks, and while they’re in identical industries, their streaks of earnings beats haven’t followed the same trajectories. While the current period has seen a longer streak of EPS beats for LOW, over the last 20+ years, HD has done a better job of managing expectations and then beating them, as evidenced by the fact that it has seen several more extended streaks of EPS beats than LOW.
Just because both stocks have done a good job of beating EPS forecasts over the last five years, doesn’t mean it has translated into their stock prices. While both stocks are higher now than they were five years ago, they have both been dead money for the last 3+ years. Coming out of the COVID lows, both stocks rallied sharply through late 2021, but then as the Fed started talking about rate hikes, they cratered and have been trading sideways ever since. While LOW’s managed to make a new high late last year, it has pulled back since then and is back below its 2021 high.
The culprit behind the relative weakness in both stocks has been rising interest rates. The chart below shows the 10-year yield since the start of 2020, and the peak in both stocks came right before the 10-year yield started to surge in early 2022. While yields have essentially been sideways for the last 2+ years, until yields start to move lower, it will be hard for both home-improvement stocks to move higher. Think of it as a scale. For one side to go up, the other has to go down.
May 20, 2025
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“Every man who says frankly and fully what he thinks is so far doing a public service.” – John Stuart Mill
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Is it summer already? Summer doesn’t officially start for another month, and the unofficial start isn’t until this weekend, but we’re in the doldrums regarding futures. Depending on the index, futures are slightly higher or lower, but they’re all off the overnight lows. There’s no economic data on the calendar this morning, but several Fed speakers are scheduled to speak throughout the day.
The only major earnings report of the day is Home Depot (HD). The company reported weaker-than-expected EPS and broke a streak of 19 straight quarters of EPS beats. Revenues were higher than expected, though, and the company reiterated full-year guidance and said they do not plan to raise prices due to tariffs. In response, the stock is up about 2%.
Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 also comes into today riding a six-day winning streak. After yesterday’s gain, the index is currently within 4% of its all-time high, meaning that all it would take is a rally almost as strong as the last six days to get us there. Given the magnitude of the gain over the last six days, though, it’s unlikely we’ll see a move like that in the next several days, not only because we’re now sitting at overbought levels in the short term but also because the index is bumping up against potential resistance.
May 19, 2025
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“Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” – Moody’s, 5/16/25
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After being the lone holdout with a AAA credit rating on the sovereign debt of the US, on Friday evening, Moody’s joined Standard and Poor’s and Fitch in downgrading US debt. As you might expect, equity futures are lower and interest rates are higher in response to the news. As Moody’s noted in its statement, the downgrade is the result of ‘successive US administrations’, and the buildup of debt in the US has been a long-running issue. The news, therefore, is surprising to no one, but it still reinforces the problem and brings it to the forefront.
The chart below shows the 10-year US Treasury yield dating back to 2010, with each AAA downgrade notated on the chart. In the case of both the S&P and Fitch downgrades, the actions did little to change the trend in interest rates. When S&P downgraded US debt in 2011, yields were already falling and continued to decline, whereas the Fitch downgrade in 2023 came in the middle of a period when rates were rising. So, while each action garnered headlines, the ratings agencies didn’t tell us anything the market didn’t already know.
May 16, 2025
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“The most important decision you make is to be in a good mood.” – Voltaire
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The biggest individual stock story of the week and probably of the last year is UnitedHealth Group (UNH). The stock is down 28% this week alone and has been more than cut in half in just a month! It’s hard to remember what was once considered a blue-chip stock falling out of favor so fast.
UNH is also a member (for now) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and because that index is price-weighted, the stock used to be one of the index’s largest components. That has made its fall from grace even that much more impactful on the index. The chart below shows the Dow’s performance over the last six months, and we have also created a theoretical index price that doesn’t include UNH (green line).
While the DJIA is still 6% below its recent high, without UNH, it would be just 2% from its high, and the spread between the current Dow and the Dow Ex UNH is 4.6% percentage points! From a technical perspective, the Dow would look much better without UNH. Through yesterday’s close, the Dow was still below potential resistance at its late-March/pre-Liberation Day high, but backing out UNH, it cleared those levels earlier this week. Taking out the index’s weakest component involves cherry-picking, but we think it provides some good perspective.
May 15, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“How you begin life is not nearly as important as how you end up.” – Emmitt Smith
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To view last night’s segment on CNN’s OutFront with Erin Burnett, click on the image below.
After some positive days of market performance, the euphoria surrounding the US-China trade talks has faded a bit as investors focus again on rising rates, with the 10-year treasury yield back above 4.5%. Walmart (WMT) marked the unofficial end to earnings season with better-than-expected earnings on inline revenues, and the stock is up fractionally. The morning is much worse for UnitedHealth (UNH) as that company’s terrible year continues with reports that the company is under criminal investigation related to billing practices in its Medicare Advantage plans. Based on where the stock is trading in the pre-market, shares have lost more than half of their value since April 11th!
While the pace of earnings reports is slowing down, today is one of the busier days in recent memory for economic data with Empire and Philly Fed Manufacturing reports for May, Retail Sales for April, PPI for April, jobless claims, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories. As if that’s not enough, Powell will also be speaking at 8:40 eastern.
As tensions in global trade pushed economic uncertainty to levels rarely seen before, investors couldn’t get their hands on enough gold. At its high for the year on 4/22, front-month gold prices were up over 30% YTD, and Costco (COST) even had to place a one-ounce limit on the amount of gold that its customers could purchase as sales of the yellow metal on its website exceeded $200 million per month.
With the US and China dialing back on trade tensions, markets and investors have let out a giant exhale of relief, and while it has been good for risk assets, gold prices have taken a hit. Overnight, prices dropped as low $3,123 per ounce, representing a decline of 11% from the recent record high. While prices recovered a bit since the lows, gold briefly traded below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early January.
As gold corrects, its price has become increasingly volatile, and large daily moves have become increasingly common. While it traded more than 2% lower on an intraday basis yesterday, it finished the day down just 1.8%. Even though it didn’t have a daily move of 2%, 11 of the last 25 trading days have seen moves of more than 2%, and just recently, the rolling 25-day total was 12. As shown below, 2%+ daily moves haven’t been that clustered together since 2011, and before that, the Financial Crisis.
