Jul 9, 2026
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“The most successful people in the world aren’t usually the brightest. They are the ones who persevere.” – Ross Perot
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Even with the US launching a new round of airstrikes overnight and Iran responding with drone attacks on US bases in the Middle East, Us equity futures are mostly higher this morning with the Nasdaq rallying more than 75 bps and the S&P 500 up a more modest 0.2%. Treasury yields are little changed, while crude oil is only fractionally higher with WTI trading at just under $74 per barrel. Worried about the Middle East, the markets are not.
Asian markets were mostly higher overnight with South Korea finishing 0.6% higher. It isn’t often lately, that the index hasn’t experienced a daily move of at least 1%, so that’s noteworthy itself. Japan rallied 1.4% while Chinese stocks led the move higher with the Shanghai Composite rising 1.7% after CPI for June showed a larger than expected decline.
In Europe, most indices are seeing fractional gains. The STOXX 600 is barely higher, but Spain is more than 1% higher after President Trump softened his tone on the country in a gaggle with reporters on Air Force One last night.
In the US today, there’s not a lot of earnings news to speak of yet, although Pepsi (PEP) is lower even though the company reported better than expected EPS on inline revenues. The only reports on the economic calendar today, and the remainder of the week for that matter, are jobless claims at 8:30 and then Existing Home Sales at 10 AM.
How you feel about the market after the first few days of Q3 says a lot about how you did in the first half. If you’re starting to feel a renewed sense of optimism, you probably had a rough first half, whereas any doubts or nervousness likely means you had a great first half.
Let’s start with sector performance. The table below, a snapshot from our Trend Analyzer, shows the performance of each sector ETF on a YTD basis and over the last five trading days (the first five trading days of Q3). Three of the four worst performing sectors so far in Q3 are among the top four performing sectors YTD. The only exception is Consumer Discretionary which is the third worst performing sector QTD and the second worst performing sector YTD. At the other end of the performance spectrum for Q3, most of the top performing sectors have been laggards on a YTD basis. The only exception here is Energy. Not only is it the best performing sector on a QTD basis, but it’s also the best performer on a YTD basis.
The scatter chart below provides a visual representation of this trend. With the x-axis showing YTD performance and the y-axis showing performance QTD, there is a clear trend from the top left to the bottom right. Again, the outlier here is Energy in the top right.
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Jul 8, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“They’re scum. You know what scum is? They’re scum…As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.” – Donald Trump
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Talk about a bad breakup. In the wake of President Trump’s comments regarding Iran and the ratcheting up of military tensions in the region, global equities are reeling. Futures for the S&P 500 are down close to 1%, while the Nasdaq sits on losses of closer to 1.5%. As you’d expect, WTI crude oil is up over 5% to just under $75 per barrel. Even with the risk-off sentiment in the market, Treasury yields are also higher as the 10-year yield moves up 5 bps to 4.57%. Gold is also plunging more than 2% to $4,060 per ounce, going against its usual role as a safe-haven bid, and Bitcoin is down 2.5% to just above $62,000.
It was another day of red for Asia as the Nikkei fell over 2%, and the Kospi tanked another 5.4%. The index has now declined more than 20% from its high just over two weeks ago on 6/22. The only global benchmark in the region trading higher was Hong Kong, which rallied 3% on reports that the Chinese government would limit access from foreigners to the country’s top AI models.
European stocks aren’t faring much better than Asia. The STOXX 600 is down over 1.5%, led lower by Spanish stocks, which are down over 2.5% after President Trump called for an end to all US trade with the country after it refused to ramp up defense spending and denied the US access to its airspace during the US strikes on Iran.
The ‘break-up’ with Iran comes just as oil prices were starting to revert to their pre-war levels. After surging more than 68%, WTI crude oil prices closed within $2 of the pre-war levels on Monday but have since rallied more than 10%.
This morning, oil prices are up over 5%, and the Crude Oil ETF (USO) is on pace to gap up over 3%. Along with the rally in crude oil, equity prices are predictably on pace to gap down nearly 1%. As mentioned above, though, Treasuries are unexpectedly selling off. Since the launch of USO in 2006, today will only be the 14th day that USO gapped up at least 2.5%, the S&P 500 (SPY) gapped down at least 0.5%, and long-term Treasuries (TLT) gapped down.
The chart below shows each of those prior days on a chart of SPY. Stunningly, there wasn’t a single occurrence in the first ten years after USO’s launch, and then after the first occurrence in 2016, there wasn’t another for more than five years. Since the start of 2025, though, these types of mornings for the market have been increasingly common, and today’s open will be the ninth occurrence in the last four months!
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Jul 7, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“You win a few, you lose a few. Some get rained out. But you got to dress for all of them.” – Satchel Paige
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey will be appearing on CNBC’s The Exchange today between 1 PM and 1:30 PM. Check it out if you’re near a screen!
It looks like a terrible Tuesday for the market as Nasdaq futures fall more than 1%, while the S&P 500 faces a more modest loss of 0.23%, and futures on the Dow are modestly higher. Despite the weakness in equities, Treasury yields are slightly higher, with the 10-year hitting 4.5%.
Crude oil is modestly higher after reports that Iran fired munitions at a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. That raises levels of uncertainty for the region, but with WTI prices not even able to muster a 1% gain, markets don’t seem overly concerned. The fact that gold prices and Bitcoin are also lower by less than 1% also supports that idea.
The weakness in US futures traces back to weakness overnight in Asia, where the Nikkei fell over 2%, and South Korea’s Kospi plunged nearly 5%. The weakness in South Korea was tied to memory stocks, which plunged as Samsung declined close to 10% after the company said earnings wouldn’t be quite as stellar as previously thought.
In Europe, stocks are holding up much better. The STOXX 600 is down just 0.2% as world leaders meet for a NATO Summit. German stocks are the biggest laggards, falling more than 0.7% even as May Industrial Production rose 0.9%, versus expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Outside of Germany, most other major benchmarks in the region are modestly higher.
As tech stocks struggle to kick off Q3, Financials have picked up some of the slack. Over the last five trading days (dating back to the start of last week), the sector is up close to 5%. That makes it the top-performing sector, with a rally of a full percentage point higher than the next closest sector (Communication Services), and more than 1.5 percentage points ahead of Consumer Discretionary. As a result of the rally, the sector is more overbought than any other, as it closed more than three standard deviations above its 50-DMA yesterday.
With the rally over the last few days, the Financials sector is back more than three standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, a level it reached back in early June. For more on how the sector has historically performed after reaching such extreme short-term overbought levels, see our Chart of the Day from June 17th (Chart of the Day – Cyclical Surge)
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Jul 6, 2026
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“Philosophy is common sense with big words.” – James Madison
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures are coming back from the holiday weekend full of life, with the S&P 500 poised to gap up 0.5% at the open while the Nasdaq rallies more than 1%. Treasury yields are lower, with the 10-year yield moving down to 4.46%. Crude oil prices have seen little movement, with WTI trading right below $69 per barrel, and gold is rallying 1% to $4,167 per ounce. In crypto, Bitcoin is down over 1% and below $62K.
Asian markets kicked off the new week on a quiet note, with Hong Kong (+1.1%) the only benchmark to move up or down by more than 1%. The Nikkei declined 0.1% while South Korea declined 0.5%. China’s Shanghai Composite was also down 0.1%.
The tone for European stocks is similarly muted, but more skewed to the downside. The STOXX 600 is trading down 0.3% in early trading. Spanish stocks are leading the losses, down 0.8%, while French stocks are unchanged. Retail sales and PPI for the region both rose 0.2% in May and were both right in line with expectations.
The only data on the calendar today are Service sector PMIs from S&P and ISM, and the earnings calendar is blank with no real notable reports until Thursday when Pepsi reports before the open.
Semiconductor stocks really limped into the holiday weekend as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 5.4% on Thursday following a 6%+ decline on Wednesday. That was the first back-to-back 5%+ declines in the index since April 2025. Those two declines alone were enough to put the SOX into correction territory, but with the index already off its highs heading into Wednesday’s session, it is now down 13.7% from its recent closing high. This current correction for the index comes less than a month after another 12.3% correction that ended in early June. Volatility in the SOX is clearly picking up.
The chart below shows all 127 SOX corrections since its inception in 1994 in terms of time and price. Overall, the median correction has lasted 22 days (current correction has been 10 days) and experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 15.64%. So, the current period is less than halfway there in terms of time, but not far from the median in terms of price.
While the SOX itself is down nearly 14%, the individual stocks that make up the index have seen larger declines relative to their respective peaks. Only four of the index’s 30 components are currently in drawdowns of less than 15%, and the median decline has been 21.6%. The biggest losses have been in the shares of Rambus (RMBS), ON Semiconductor (ON), Qualcomm (QCOM), Skyworks (SWKS), and Arm Holdings (ARM), all of which are down over 30%. Nvidia (NVDA), the largest of the stocks in the index, has been a big underperformer on the way up, but on the way down, it hasn’t been quite as extreme as its current drawdown of 17.6% is four percentage points less than the median of the index’s 30 components.
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Jul 2, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Philosophy is common sense with big words.” – James Madison
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a shaky start to the third quarter yesterday, equity futures remained wary ahead of the June Non-Farm Payrolls report, with the S&P 500 basically unchanged while the Nasdaq was up less than 10 basis points. Treasury yields are slightly higher, but the 10-year yield is back above 4.5%. The real story, though, is in the energy market, where WTI prices are down over 2% and back to where they traded before the war with Iran started. Gold prices are down fractionally, and Bitcoin is higher, trading back above $61K.
In Asia, it was a shaky night led lower by tech stocks as South Korea plunged nearly 8%, the Nikkei fell 2.5%, and China dropped 2%. That’s not the start of a quarter bulls would have hoped for, but it’s also not unexpected given the moves higher we saw in Q2.
In Europe, stocks are broadly higher with the STOXX 600 trading up over 0.5%, as Italy and Spain lead the way, gaining over 1%.
It’s a busy day for economic data as we pack a lot of reports into the day due to Friday’s holiday. The main report, though, was the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which came in weaker than expected. The initial read was 57K, or about half expectations. Despite the weaker print, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.2% versus forecasts for 4.3%. Also, Initial and Continuing Claims were both slightly lower than expected. So, the headline number may have been weaker than expected; other releases weren’t nearly as bad. When it comes to the Non-Farm Payrolls, the most important thing to remember is that the initial release is what you tell your wife you’re going to spend at Costco, and the revision is your credit card statement. They’re rarely the same!
As we kick off the second half, investors face no shortage of questions. Will earnings season live up to expectations? Will inflation cool? Will the ceasefire in the Middle East continue? Will the AI trade continue to keep the market afloat, or will the underperformance of mega-caps sink the rally? We can all take our best guesses at these questions, but only time will tell, and as events unfold, the market will continue to react with gains and losses.
After a blistering rally off the March lows, investors are starting to question their recent optimism, which has caused the advance to stall. Heading into the last trading session before the July 4th holiday, the S&P 500 sits just above its 50-day moving average, so even on a short-term basis, the rally remains in place despite the sawtooth action of the last six weeks.
Regardless of how the market responds to these short-term questions, the most important thing to keep in mind is that over the last 250 years (to the day Saturday!), there has been no better investment than the US economy. The chart below goes back nearly a century, and the trend has been clear. It hasn’t been a straight line higher, but the last six months (red box) look inconsequential, and even the dark days of the Great Depression and the unwinding of the 1990s tech bubble don’t seem that bad. Most importantly, though, we got through them.
In real time, the road ahead won’t be smooth, but time has a way of smoothing out the rough edges, and $1 invested in the S&P 500 in 1928 would be worth more than $10,000 today. So, let’s all celebrate this weekend what makes this country the greatest place on earth and get back to work next week in the pursuit of making that $10,000 worth $100,000,000 by 2126! Happy 250th, everyone!
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Jul 1, 2026
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“Either write something worth reading or do something worth writing.” – Benjamin Franklin
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime yesterday after the close to discuss the first half performance and trends to look for in the second half. To view the segment, click on the image below. Paul will also be appearing on CNBC’s Power Lunch today at 2 PM.
Equity futures are kicking off the new half with modest losses. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% while the Nasdaq is down 0.5%. Treasury yields are seeing a sizable uptick, with the 10-year yield up 7 basis points to 4.49%. Crude oil is fractionally lower and below $70 per barrel, while gold is fractionally higher and Bitcoin is marginally lower.
In Asia, markets started the quarter mixed, with the Nikkei gaining 0.6% as the yen weakened to 40+ year lows. China was also slightly higher, while South Korea declined by 2% as memory stocks showed weakness at the start of the quarter. In terms of regional economic data, manufacturing PMI indices were generally weaker than expected.
In Europe, stocks are mostly lower to start the month, but again, the losses are modest with the STOXX 600 trading down just 0.3%. Manufacturing PMIs were mixed, but the flash CPI for June unexpectedly declined 0.1% m/m, versus forecasts of a 0.1% increase.
On the economic calendar, we’ll get Manufacturing PMIs from S&P and ISM at 9:45 and 10, and the June ADP employment report just hit the tape with a weaker-than-expected print. While economists expected an increase of 120K jobs, the actual increase was just 98K. While weaker than expected, a miss that small relative to expectations will do little to upend the theme of an improved labor market.
In central bank news, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, along with ECB President Lagarde, in Sintra, Portugal, later this morning.
As we start a new month and quarter, we’d be remiss if we didn’t point out how unique the second quarter was in terms of sector performance. While the S&P 500 rallied nearly 15%, the only sector that generated any alpha and outperformed the index was Technology, and boy did it ever outperform as it more than doubled the gain of the S&P 500. Behind Technology, Industrials came close to the S&P 500 but finished just short with a gain of 14.5%.
Outside of these two sectors, no other sector even rallied more than 10%, and three sectors – Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Energy – all finished down for the quarter. That’s not particularly good if your portfolio is concentrated in those three sectors, but when the market rallies, it’s exactly the defensive sectors like these that you would expect to underperform.
While there was very little in the way of sector breadth during the quarter, on a year-to-date basis, performance has been more balanced. As shown in the chart below, while the S&P 500 is up just under 10%, Industrials, Technology, and Energy all gained nearly double that, while Materials and Real Estate also outperformed. To the downside, Consumer Discretionary and Financials are the only two sectors in the hole for the year. If the economy continues to show signs of improvement in the second half, it would be hard to imagine these two sectors continuing to remain in the red.
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