Jun 24, 2026
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“The most effective leader is the one who satisfies the psychological needs of his followers.” – David Ogilvy
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street yesterday to discuss the sell-off in tech and rotation into other sectors. To view the segment, click on the image below.
Stocks are looking to recoup some of Tuesday’s losses as Nasdaq futures rally 0.6% and the S&P 500 stands to gain 0.3%. Bond yields are lower, with the 10-year Treasury falling back down to 4.5% while WTI oil prices drop 3% to $71 per barrel. Gold prices are also down over 2% and not far from breaking the psychologically important level of $4,000 per ounce. Bitcoin is moving in the opposite direction, rallying nearly 1%.
It’s a slow day for data, with New Home Sales being the only economic report on the calendar, but after the bell, investors will be focused on Micron (MU) earnings, which are sure to cause some big moves in the memory sector.
Asian stocks generally rebounded overnight, except for Japan, which fell 0.9%. South Korea bounced 3.3%, erasing one-third of its losses from Tuesday’s session, while Chinese stocks were up fractionally. Traders in South Korea were somewhat comforted by news that Samsung would buy back $58 billion in stock, while SK Hynix said it would proceed with its US listing in early July.
In Europe, the STOXX 600 is slightly lower. French stocks are outperforming with a slight gain, while Germany is the big laggard, falling over 1%. Weakness in Europe’s largest industrial economy comes on the heels of reports that the German government cancelled plans to build six new warships, and that Rheinmetall shares plunging more than 15%.
Crude oil prices are lower again this morning, and WTI is down below $72 per barrel for the first time since March 3rd and below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. Consider this: in May, crude oil prices averaged over $98 per barrel. Today, WTI is 27% lower.
Yesterday’s decline in WTI ended a streak of 54 trading days where the commodity closed above its 200-DMA. As shown in the chart below, that’s far from extreme on a historical basis, but it was the longest streak in nearly three years.
Outside of Energy, S&P Global announced last night that Alphabet (GOOGL) would replace Verizon (VZ) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While both stocks are in the Communication Services sector, it will have a notable impact on sector representation in the index. Not because GOOGL has a market cap that’s more than 20 times greater than VZ’s, but instead because its share price is 7.5 times greater (and the Dow is a share price-weighted index).
As the chart below illustrates, every other sector in the will see its weighting decline marginally while Communication Services will see its weighting increase from 1.8% to 5.2% of the index.
At the individual stock level, based on yesterday’s closing levels, GOOGL will enter the Dow as the sixth-largest component in the index with a weighting of just under 4%. As shown in the chart below, thirteen of the index’s 30 components have weights of between 3% and 5%, but the big outliers are Goldman Sachs (GS) and Caterpillar (CAT). With GS having a share price of nearly $1,100 and CAT closing yesterday just below $1,000, both stocks have weightings of more than 11% each. At the other end of the spectrum, after VZ’s removal, Coca-Cola (KO) and Nike (NKE) will be the only two stocks in the index with weightings below 1%.
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Jun 23, 2026
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“The most effective leader is the one who satisfies the psychological needs of his followers.” – David Ogilvy
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Make sure to check out Paul Hickey on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street at 10 AM today.
We’re witnessing a global sell-off in equities as S&P 500 futures are down over 1% while the Nasdaq stares at a decline of more than 2.5%. The weakness comes as crude oil prices fall to the lowest levels in months and treasury yields are lower, two trends that would normally be viewed as positive for stocks! Asian stocks were sharply lower overnight, and that weakness flowed through into Europe as well, as the STOXX 600 falls over 1%. Flash PMI readings released this morning showed positive moves in the Manufacturing sector but weakness in the Services sector.
Tech is the main driver of the weakness, though. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is down less than 0.5%, and most other sectors are faring much better than tech this morning. While Technology is down over 3%, Financials is barely lower, and Health Care is up in the pre-market. This divergence is a reversal of the quarter-to-date trend, where Technology was the only sector outperforming the market in Q2. That’s unsustainable.
The carnage in US equity futures started overnight in South Korea, where the KOSPI declined 9.99% for its largest daily decline since… March 4th. Usually, 5%+ declines for a major global index are a big deal, but for the KOSPI, last night’s was the third this month! And if you think that’s volatile, in March there were four 5%+ daily moves.
For the KOSPI, today’s 10% decline shows up as a large red candle in the chart, but like the prior two periods of decline the index has had since April, it remains nearly 10% above its 50-day moving average and 58% above its 200-DMA. So, by any traditional or objective measure, it is still overbought.
Semiconductor stocks have been the hottest sector of the market during Q2, and as of yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) was up over 90%. 90%! Today, the index is on pace to trade down about 6%, which wouldn’t even be the worst day this month. That was on 6/5 when it fell over 10%. Even after a decline of 6%, though, the SOX would be 18.9% above its 50-DMA and 57.9 above its 200-DMA. Like the KOSPI, still overbought.
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Jun 22, 2026
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“I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I’m not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.” – Alan Greenspan
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a long weekend, markets appear to be stuck in snooze. The S&P 500 is indicated to open 0.03% lower, while the Nasdaq prices in a gain of less than 0.2%. Treasury yields are modestly higher, but the 10-year yield remains below 4.5%. Oil Prices are modestly lower after Iran noted “major progress” in talks with the US. Gold is fractionally lower while Bitcoin bounces and makes a run towards $65K.
There’s some sad news to report this morning as former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan passed away at the age of 100. Greenspan earned the nickname “The Maestro” not just because he was credited with steering the economy through the longest peacetime expansion in history, but also because he was an accomplished musician who attended the Juilliard School, where he played the clarinet and sax.
Asian markets started the week on a positive note. The Nikkei 225 rallied 1.6% while South Korea gained 0.7%, with both hitting record highs. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bucked the bullish trend, falling 0.7%. The big news in South Korea’s rally was SK Hynix overtaking Samsung as the country’s largest company by market cap after the stock has tripled – yes, tripled – since February.
In Europe, it’s been a listless session to start the week. The STOXX 600 is basically unchanged, while UK stocks are up fractionally following news that PM Starmer will resign. To the downside, Germany, France, and Italy are all down around 0.5% or less.
In the US today, there’s no economic or earnings data on the calendar.
With Japanese stocks rallying overnight, the Nikkei 225 did something it hasn’t done in 37 years by closing at a record high for six straight sessions. The chart below shows streaks of all-time closing highs in the Nikkei 225, and it is one of the stranger charts you’ll see, given that the index went decades without hitting a record high after the bubble burst in 1989. Before 1989, there were multiple streaks of six or more record highs, but the current one is the longest since 1989.
In addition to closing at six straight record highs, the Nikkei has also closed higher for eight straight sessions, and those types of streaks have been frequent throughout history, even during the drought of all-time highs. This current streak of higher closes is the first eight-day streak since September 2023 and tied for the longest since March 2022.
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Jun 18, 2026
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“I don’t want to put a limit or a ceiling on what I think I can be.” – Josh Hart
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After markets got carried away and overreacted to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting and press conference, futures are rallying this morning with tech leading the charge. Nasdaq futures are up over 1% with the S&P 500 looking to gain 0.65%. The 10-year yield is slightly lower, while crude oil falls more than 2% to $75 per barrel for WTI. Gold prices are plunging close to 3% while Bitcoin is down about 0.5% to just below $64K.
It was a mixed session in Asia as the Nikkei rallied 1.7% and South Korea surged 2.3% to a record high. At the other end of the performance spectrum, Hong Kong fell 1.6% while onshore Chinese stocks declined 0.4%. In Europe, trading is more one-sided, and it’s to the downside as the STOXX 600 is down 0.5% as it catches up with yesterday’s post-FOMC decline in the US. UK stocks are the biggest laggards, falling 1.1%, while Germany and Italy both only face modest declines of 0.2%.
In the US this morning, initial claims hit the tape at 8:30, along with the Philly Fed and then Leading Indicators at 10 AM.
With oil prices cratering since news of a peach deal surfaced last week, gas prices have also been falling. After hitting a peak of $4.56 per gallon just before Memorial Day, the national average price, according to AAA, fell below $4 yesterday for the first time since March 29th. While those declines are welcome, the national average is still more than a dollar, or 33%, above its pre-war level of $2.98. There’s still plenty of room for improvement.
Rising prices at the pump have a big impact on consumers’ wallets, and the more they spend on gas, the less they can spend on other things. As yesterday’s Retail Sales report showed, though, retail sales have held up well despite the surge in gas prices. At first glance, retail-related stocks also appear to have hung in relatively well. Since the war started, the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) has declined 3.4%, which doesn’t seem all that bad against a backdrop of gas prices rising by more than a third.
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Jun 17, 2026
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“Reality is wrong. Dreams are for the real.” – Tupac Shakur
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After the Nasdaq lagged yesterday, it leads the charge in the pre-market this morning, with a gain of 0.5% while the S&P 500 looks to gain just 0.05% and the Dow is slightly lower. Treasury yields are slightly higher, while crude oil bounces 1% after a four-day decline of more than 15%. Gold and other precious metals are modestly lower while Bitcoin trades down over 1%.
Asian stocks finished mostly higher after erasing earlier losses. The only decliner in the region was Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng declined 0.8%. South Korea, however, finished 1.6% higher, while Japan traded 0.7% higher. For both countries, the closing levels were record highs. In Japan, imports rose slightly less than expected while exports came in higher, rising by 17% y/y to a three-year high.
In Europe, the STOXX 600 is up 0.4% in midday trading, with Spain leading the charge, gaining 0.5%. Germany has been a laggard after BMW lowered guidance for the year on weaker expected margins. May CPI data for the Eurozone increased 0.1% m/m, which was right in line with expectations.
Besides today’s Fed meeting, we just got Retail Sales at 8:30, which came in higher than expected (0.9% vs 0.6%). Between now and the Fed announcement, we’ll get Business Inventories and Pending Home Sales at 10 AM. The real focus, though, will be on today’s Fed meeting and the press conference at 2:30. Given that Warsh is a Trump appointee, there’s already a consensus among many that he will bend to the President’s will. If anyone involved in the markets has learned anything in their experience, though, what the consensus thinks often doesn’t play out, so let’s at least give the new Fed Chair one meeting before drawing conclusions.
Sector performance has been broadly positive over the last week, but there has been some dispersion in where each one is trading relative to its trading range. Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) both finished yesterday’s session in ‘extreme’ overbought territory, while another five sectors finished in overbought territory. Trailing those sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Utilities (XLU) finished the day in neutral territory while Communication Services (XLC) and Energy (XLE) lagged in oversold territory.
With a gain of 3.14% over the last week, the Technology sector (XLK) is one of the five sectors in overbought territory, but just barely. That strength comes despite some major weakness in the software sector. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has declined more than 1.5% over the last week, and some of the ETF’s largest components have seen big losses.
The snapshot below shows the performance of the top ten holdings in the IGV ETF. While Palo Alto (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) are both up over 5% in the last week, four other stocks are down over 5%, including Adobe (ADBE), Oracle (ORCL), and salesforce (CRM), which have all dropped more than 7.5%.
The weakness in CRM has been especially pronounced. While the stock experienced a big bounce in the late days of May into the first day of June, it’s been all downhill from there, as the stock has returned to 52-week lows.
The weakness in CRM has been relentless, and the stock heads into today’s session with an 11-day losing streak. Since Marc Benioff took the company public in 2004, this is easily the longest losing streak in the company’s history.
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Jun 16, 2026
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“Reality is wrong. Dreams are for the real.” – Tupac Shakur
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a strong start to the week on Monday, US futures are modestly higher this morning, with S&P 500 futures indicated 5 basis points higher, while the Nasdaq looks to gain 0.15%. Treasury yields are lower, with the 10-year yield falling below 4.45%, while crude oil falls another 3.8% to under $78 per barrel for WTI. Even Brent crude oil prices are on the verge of falling below $80, and these declines all point to lower gas prices ahead of the July 4th holiday. Gold prices are slightly higher, while Bitcoin is basically unchanged at $66,500.
Asian stocks put in a mixed performance overnight. The Nikkei barely finished higher after the BoJ hiked rates 25 bps, pushing rates to 1.0% for the first time since 1995. Chinese stocks finished lower, while India (+0.7%) and South Korea (2.1%) both finished higher. The weakness in Chinese stocks came as Retail Sales fell 0.6%, which was twice the expected decline, while Industrial Production was slightly better than expected.
European stocks are broadly higher this morning, with the STOXX 600 up 0.4%. Italy is leading the way higher with a gain of 1.2%, while Spain lags. Economic sentiment, as measured by ZEW, came in higher than expected for both Germany and the entire EU region.
It’s a quiet day for economic data this morning, as the only notable reports on the calendar were Building Permits and Housing Starts for May. Building Permits came in slightly weaker than expected at 1.413 million versus forecasts for 1.418 million. The big surprise, though, was in Housing Starts, which came in much weaker than expected at 1.177 million versus forecasts for 1.430 million. That’s the smallest monthly reading since May 2020, and one of the largest misses relative to expectations that we can remember.
Lower oil prices have been a driver of higher stock prices over the last several days, and with crude oil trading down over 2% this morning, prices are down over 30% from their recent highs, putting the current drawdown from a 52-week high near the most extreme levels since mid-2023.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are up over 5% again in the premarket but were up over 10% at one point overnight. With a market cap of $2.5 trillion as of yesterday’s close, the stock briefly had a market value in excess of Microsoft (MSFT) overnight, and it’s still right around the same levels or slightly above Amazon (AMZN). Obviously, only a small percentage of the company’s shares outstanding are available for trading, so the stock is incredibly volatile for a $2.5 trillion company, but these moves for such a large company are incredible.
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