Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/8/20 – Wednesday Lull

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

With earnings season not kicking off until next week, it’s an unusually quiet day in terms of data as there are no major earnings reports to speak of and the economic calendar is pretty much empty.  Futures are modestly higher as we type this and have been vacillating above and below the unchanged level all morning.  Gold is rallying to its highest levels since 2011, and copper isn’t far from 52-week highs.

Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, auto sales in China, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.

ml0203

Nasdaq futures are up considerably more than the S&P 500 this morning, continuing a trend of outperformance for the Nasdaq that has been in place for several months now.  The Nasdaq 100’s decline yesterday ended a streak of five straight days where the index was up at least 0.5%.  While that sounds impressive at face value, back in May, there was actually a streak of six trading days.  Prior to that streak, the last time the Nasdaq 100 was up more than 0.5% for five straight days was in June 2019, and before that, you have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last streak before that.

After five straight days of gains, one might think that the Nasdaq 100 was getting ahead of itself, and while a short-term pullback may be in the cards, these streaks of 5 or more days of 0.5% gains have been relatively common throughout the Nasdaq 100’s history.  As shown in the chart below (on a log scale where each label on the y-axis represents a doubling in price), while there were a couple of occurrences near the 2000 peak, there were also loads of similar streaks in the entire runup of the 1990s.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/7/20 – Rally Rests

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

You wouldn’t think that on a lucky day like 7/7 that the equity market would break a streak of five straight days with gains of 0.5% in the S&P 500 tracking ETF SPY, but that’s where we stand ahead of the opening bell today. Futures are slightly off their earlier lows but still indicating a decline of just 0.60% at the open.  Besides the fact that the S&P 500 has been up for five straight days and could use a rest, there isn’t much in the way of a key catalyst responsible for the decline, although Industrial Production in Germany did come in significantly weaker than expected.  While Europe has seemed to see better trends related to squashing the COVID outbreak, economic data hasn’t yet shown material outperformance.

Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, weaker than expected economic data out of Europe, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.

ml0203

We normally don’t show the same chart two days in a row, but yesterday saw a positive shift in the S&P 500’s cumulative A/D line.  While breadth had been tracking price step for step, in yesterday’s rally the cumulative A/D line made a higher high in the short term even as the S&P 500 has yet to break above its June highs.  That’s a positive short-term development.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/6/20 – Breaking Breadth Down

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

There’s no hangover on Wall Street this morning as futures are indicated more than 1% higher on optimism over global growth and a surge in Chinese equities.  Since the equity market bottomed in March, today’s gap higher for the S&P 500 represents the 24th time that SPY has gapped up more than 1% at the open.  In the prior 23 occurrences, the average change from the open to close was a gain of 0.34% (median: +0.38%) with gains 61% of the time.  More recently, though, a 1%+ gap higher was met with selling intraday as the S&P 500 has declined from the open to close on each of the prior four occurrences.

Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.

ml0203

In this past weekend’s Bespoke Report, we provided a brief checkup on market breadth for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq highlighting each index’s cumulative A/D line over the last year.

In the case of the S&P 500, breadth hasn’t been good or bad and has simply been tracking the overall direction of the index’s price level. Overall, breadth for the S&P 500 is neutral, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

For the Nasdaq, the picture isn’t as positive.  As the Nasdaq Composite has made two higher highs in the last few weeks (dark blue line), the cumulative A/D line has actually been making lower highs.  One reason for the weakness in the Nasdaq’s breadth is the relative weakness of small-cap stocks in the index.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/2/20 – Fireworks Starting Early

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

There may not be as many fireworks as usual this weekend due to restrictions on social gatherings during the COVID pandemic, but on Wall Street, the fireworks are coming early.  Futures are firmly in the green on what has historically been a strong period for equities, and things are likely to only get more explosive later this morning with the release of the June Non-Farm Payrolls report and Initial Jobless Claims.  What color the fireworks end up will likely be determined by how these reports come in relative to expectations.

Given the observance of the July 4th Holiday tomorrow, US markets will be closed, so there will be no Morning Lineup tomorrow.  Happy 4th!

Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.

ml0203

Across the universe of S&P 500 sectors, we’re seeing quite a wide disparity between performance coming into the third quarter.  Leading the way to the upside, Technology still reigns supreme as the sector is more than 8% above its 50-day moving average (DMA), followed by Consumer Discretionary (6.0%) and Real Estate (5.4%).  At the other end of the spectrum, Energy (-3.35%) is the only sector that is below its 50-DMA.

In addition to the three leading sectors highlighted above, the only other sector that is currently overbought is Communication Services, while every other sector is in neutral territory.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/1/20 – Slow Start to the New Quarter

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

It’s a new quarter for the market, and investors appear to be suffering a bit of a hangover after last quarter’s big gains.  ADP Private Payrolls were just released and came in weaker than expected (2.369 million vs 2.900 million). In any other environment, a miss of over half a million payrolls relative to expectations would have been newsworthy by itself, but when you’re dealing in millions, what’s a few hundred thousand between friends?

Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, PMI Manufacturing data for June, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.

ml0203

When we first started putting the table below together this morning, SPY was indicated to open down by over half of one percent, but as of now, the margin of decline has been cut in half.  Therefore, we have expanded the table to show all days where SPY opened a new quarter with a downside gap of 0.25% or more. Time will tell, but by the time the opening bell rings, we may not even be at that level.

While first impressions in these quarters weren’t very good, SPY’s performance from the open to close tended to be positive with an average gain of 0.38% (median: 0.42%) and positive returns over 70% of the time.  For the rest of the quarter, performance was even better as the SPY averaged a gain of 5.40% (median: 6.94%) with gains over 80% of the time. Also, keep in mind that the largest downside gap to open a quarter was last quarter on April 1st when SPY gapped down over 3.5%.  That certainly ended up being an April Fools’ joke as SPY rallied more than 25% from the close on 4/1 through yesterday’s close.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/30/20 – It’s So Hard to Say Goodbye to Yesterday

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

We certainly wish we could have more days like yesterday.  Although the market didn’t rally enough to erase Friday’s losses, the strong rebound was a moral victory for bulls heading into the final day of the quarter.  The rebound also helped to support the idea that last week’s declines were at least in part due to portfolio rebalancing.  This morning, futures are mixed with the Dow and S&P 500 indicated modestly lower while the Nasdaq is higher driven by positive earnings reports and guidance from Micron (MU) and Xilinx (XLNX).  In terms of data, Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence will be the key reports to watch.

Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, European markets and data, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.

ml0203

It’s not only going to be hard to say goodbye to yesterday but also the last quarter.  With a gain of over 18% heading into the last day, the S&P 500 is on pace for its best quarter since the last quarter of 1998.  This quarter’s gain comes after last quarter’s swoon of 20%, so YTD the market is still in the hole by over 5%.