Morning Lineup – Rising Tide on Both Sides of the Atlantic

It is a very positive tone for European equities and US futures this morning as the S&P 500 is indicated to open up half of one percent as it continues to follow through from Friday’s close above resistance.  There’s not a lot of economic data to speak of today, but the FOMC is set to begin a two-day meeting.  With virtually zero chance of a hike or even a cut in rates at this meeting or in the next few, they may have trouble finding things to talk about for the next two days!

Please click the link below to read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup.

Bespoke Morning Lineup – 3/19/19

With the S&P 500 down just over 3% from its all-time high and tomorrow marking the six-month anniversary since the last time the index closed at an all-time high, the current period is just the fifth time since the March 2009 low that the index has gone six months or more without closing at post-financial crisis high.  It also marks just the sixth time that the index has gone more than 100 trading days without hitting a new high.

In the chart below, we highlight the S&P 500’s path since the March 2009 lows and show each of the 100+ trading day droughts without a new high in red.  The current period, which will extend to 122 trading days today, has been unique as it came just 19 trading days after a 145 trading day drought that spanned late January to August of 2018.  When the S&P 500 finally broke out to new highs last August, bulls were probably not expecting such a ‘lame’ breakout as the difference between the September high and the high from earlier in January was barely more than 2%.  The only period that was similar was from 2011 through 2012 where a 206 trading day streak without a new high and a 108-day streak were separated by just 22 trading days and a rally of less than 4%.

Those two examples just mentioned are where the S&P 500 saw the smallest rallies following a drought of 100+ trading days without a new high.  The other three periods, however, were a lot more palatable for bulls as the S&P 500 rallied an additional 12% through May 2011 after breaking the 135-day drought in November 2010, an additional 50% through May 2015 after breaking the 108-day drought in September 2012, and an additional 33% through January 2018 after breaking the 285 trading day drought in July 2016.

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Morning Lineup – Upward Drift Continues

Not a lot in the way of macro headlines this morning, but US equity futures are modestly higher, although continued weakness in Boeing (BA) is pressuring the DJIA.  Chinese equities kicked off the week with another rally of over 2%, sending the CSI 300 to its highest close of the current rally.  In the ongoing China-US trade saga, a potential summit between Trump and Xi is looking like it will be pushed back to June.

Please click the link below to read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup.

Bespoke Morning Lineup – 3/18/19

February trade data for Singapore had good news for optimists on global activity. While both leading indicators and broad gauges of global trade activity have been in pretty persistent decline of late, we note that exports for Singapore (both from its domestic economy, and via broader measures like re-exports and container volumes, both of which are highly sensitive to global trade activity) have not suffered all that much. Certainly, exports are down, and re-exports are off their peak, but container through-put for the biggest Eurasian trade hub has remained very robust, something that would be impossible if total global trade was collapsing.

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Morning Lineup – Strong End to a Strong Week

Global equities are finishing the week on a positive note and capping off what has been a very strong week.  Chinese equities regained their footing after two days of 1% declines, and Europe is up across the board.  Will this be the day that the S&P 500 can finally really break out of its range in the low 2,800s?

Please click the link below to read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup.

Bespoke Morning Lineup – 3/15/19

With equities rallying around the globe, you would think that interest rates would be rising as risk looks to be coming off the sidelines. Not this week.  US 10-year yields are on pace to finish the week right where they started, and the yield curve is below 20 basis points for the fourth straight day, which is a streak that hasn’t been seen at all in this cycle.

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Morning Lineup – YTD Lows for the VIX

After a few quiet days outside of Boeing and Brexit to kick off the week, the flow of news is a bit more active this morning.  Positive sentiment in equity futures has quickly worn off this morning as headlines indicate that the US and China have put off a planned meeting between President Trump and President XI later this month.  The meeting now won’t occur until April at least.  Sticking points like the treatment of intellectual property remain unresolved.  The delay shouldn’t be entirely surprising given the President’s comments just yesterday that he was in no rush to sign a deal.

In economic data, Import and Export Prices rose more than expected, as was also the case with Jobless Claims.  One stock to note, though, is GE.  While the company lowered guidance earlier (no surprise there), it has actually erased earlier losses and is now positive.

Please click the link below to read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup.

Bespoke Morning Lineup – 3/14/19

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given the market’s strength of late, but sometimes you need a chart to make it hit home.  Volatility has once again sunken like a stone this year as the VIX dropped below 14 again this week and just this morning traded down to its lowest level since October 5th.

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Morning Lineup – Positive Bias in a Quiet Tape

Besides Brexit and Boeing again today, there really isn’t a lot going on in markets this morning.  US futures are indicated modestly higher, and Boeing is trading down again.  The stock is off its lows, though, as it attempts to bounce back from its first back to back declines of 5%+ in nearly a decade.

Please click the link below to read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup.

Bespoke Morning Lineup – 3/13/19

After bouncing back nicely from its early lows on Friday, the S&P 500 is currently less than 5% from its September all-time high, while the 60+ industries in the index are down an average of close to 10%.  What’s most surprising about where individual groups stand relative to their highs, though, is that the groups at the top are all Utilities.  As shown below, Water, Multi, and Electric Utilities all hit 52-week highs yesterday and closed out the session less than 1% from those highs.

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Morning Lineup – Brexit and Boeing

Today’s Morning Lineup is brought to you by the letter “B” as Brexit and Boeing are the major drivers of headlines this morning.  Regarding Brexit, while things looked promising ahead of today’s vote after last night’s deal between PM May and EU President Juncker, reality has set in overnight, and the prospects of the deal passing a vote in Parliament aren’t looking entirely promising at this point.  Meanwhile, Australia and Singapore joined the growing list of countries grounding flights of the 737 Max, and just now Malaysia announced the same.  While the FAA deemed the 737 Max airworthy overnight, it also sent a mixed message mandating Boeing to push certain changes to the 737’s flight control system by ‘no later’ than April.

In economic news, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey increased versus January but came in lighter than expected, while CPI was right in line with forecasts at both the headline and core levels.

Please click the link below to read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup.

Bespoke Morning Lineup – 3/12/19

Software has been a key group for the market over the last year, and yesterday’s rally took the S&P 500 Software group back within 1% of an all-time high.  On Friday, the index bounced right at what was former resistance levels which was an encouraging sign.  This group is dominated by Microsoft (MSFT) but is also comprised of Oracle (ORCL) Adobe (ADBE), and salesforce.com (CRM).  Watch this group in the coming days to see if it can lead the broader market higher.

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