Nov 24, 2025
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“No man becomes rich unless he enriches others.” – Andrew Carnegie
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Following a Friday rebound on the back of comments from NY Fed President John Williams that he was open to a rate cut at the December meeting, the week is starting on a positive note. S&P 500 futures have rallied 0.5% while Nasdaq futures point to a gain of 0.76% as shares of Alphabet (GOOGL) trade up another 3% following comments from Marc Benioff saying how much better Gemini 3 is than ChatGPT and that he’s ‘not going back’.
Japanese stocks were closed for a holiday, but Hong Kong stocks surged 2% while South Korean stocks declined modestly in what was a generally quiet session to start the week. European stocks are generally off to a quiet start this week as well. The STOXX is basically unchanged, while Germany (0.5%) leads and Italy (-1.0%) lags. One major weakness in the region, though, is the defense sector, as a potential end to fighting in the Ukraine war has that sector selling off. In terms of data, it’s been quiet. The only report was German Business confidence from ifo, which showed an unexpected decline from October, falling from 88.4 to 88.1 versus forecasts for an uptick to 88.6.
With the market only open for trading three-and-a-half days this week, it’s one of the shortest trading weeks of the year. With many on Wall Street usually taking Friday off, it’s only a three-day work week for many. It may be short, but Thanksgiving week has historically been strong. Since 1945, the S&P 500’s median performance during the week has been a gain of 0.76% with gains 65% of the time.
This year is the 38th time since 1945 that the S&P 500 was up by double-digit percentages heading into the week, and in the 37 prior years, the S&P 500’s median gain for Thanksgiving week was even stronger at 0.91% with positive returns 70% of the time. There have also been 13 years when the S&P 500 was down by double-digit percentages heading into Thanksgiving week. While you wouldn’t expect that investors would have had much to be thankful for in those years, the S&P 500’s median gain during the holiday week was a gain of 1.55% with positive returns 85% of the time.
As shown in the chart below, recent Thanksgiving week performance have also been positive. In the last three years, the S&P 500 rallied more than 1% in each Thanksgiving week, and it’s been positive during this week in eleven out of the last 13 years.
Looking at day-to-day returns, the chart below shows the S&P 500’s average performance during each day of Thanksgiving week for all years since 1945 and years when the S&P 500 was up 10%+ YTD. For all years since 1945, the strongest days of the week have been Wednesday and Friday (maybe you want to reconsider taking Friday off!), but in years when the S&P 500 was already up by double-digits, Tuesday and Wednesday were the best days of the week. One constant trend for Thanksgiving week? Monday was the weakest in terms of performance for all years and just years when the S&P 500 was already up 10%. What would you expect for a Monday?
Nov 21, 2025
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“To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect.” – Oscar Wilde
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To view yesterday’s CNBC segment discussing yesterday’s sell-off and Nasdaq 5% pullbacks, in general, click on the image below.
After trading lower overnight, equity futures are higher across the board this morning following comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who says the Fed has room to lower rates in the short-term as weakness in the labor market poses a bigger risk than inflation. In response, S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% while Nasdaq futures are up slightly less. For both indices, the rebound is nowhere near enough to make up for yesterday’s declines, let alone getting us anywhere near the intraday highs from less than 24 hours ago.
Crude oil and 10-year yields are both lower, gold is basically flat, and crypto is seeing steep losses with Bitcoin and Ether both down about 4% while less ‘blue-chip’ coins in the space are down even more.
After yesterday’s weakness, it should come as no surprise that Asian stocks were creamed overnight, putting them all deep in the red for the week. European stocks are also lower, but not by the same degree, as the STOXX 600 is down 0.8%, but all major indices on the continent are on pace for weekly losses of at least 2%.
What started out yesterday as a Dr. Jekyll moment yesterday quickly turned into a Mr. Hyde event as the S&P 500, led by tech, turned a gain of nearly 2% into a decline of over 1.5%. Bulls started off the day strutting their stuff, got a little nervous as they headed out to lunch, and then came back ready to throw up.
Within the S&P 500, there were some major reversals. 13 stocks in the index closed more than 10% lower than their intraday high, which is nearly unheard of for large-cap stocks unless there’s a stock-specific event causing the move. Looking at the list of the biggest intraday reversals, not only were eight of them from the Technology sector, but most of the ones that aren’t were still AI-adjacent stocks.
While tech led the reversal, it wasn’t solely about Tech. Within the S&P 500, 420 stocks traded down from the open to close, and the average stock in the S&P 500 finished the day down more than 3% from its intraday high. The chart below shows the average change of individual stocks yesterday from Wednesday’s close through the intraday high and then the intraday high to the close.
Tech stocks rallied the most initially, with an average gain of 2.8% and then reversed an average of 5.6% from the open to close. Besides Technology, though, the only two sectors where the average decline from the intraday high to the close was less than 2% were Consumer Staples (-1.1%) and Real Estate (-1.9%). In three sectors besides Technology (Energy, Industrials, and Materials), the average decline was more than 3%. So, again, Tech led the way but it had plenty of company.
Nov 20, 2025
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“Great ideas come from everywhere if you just listen and look for them. You never know who’s going to have a great idea.” – Sam Walton
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Strong results from Nvidia (NVDA) have pushed global markets higher. The stock is trading up over 5% in the pre-market, and as a result, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are both trading more than 1% higher. Even Russell 2000 futures, which have no exposure to NVDA, are up over 1%. Heck, the Dow is even trading higher!
International markets were also higher overnight in Asia and this morning, with gains of mostly 1% or more. Treasury yields are basically unchanged, crude oil is back to $60 per barrel, gold is flat, and crypto assets are up at least 3%.
We’re finally getting some economic data this morning, and the main report was the September Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed 119K jobs created versus forecasts for an increase of 50K. Despite the larger-than-expected increase, the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.4% versus estimates of 4.3%. More timely data on jobless claims came in at a relatively benign 220K.
In his last press conference following the Federal Reserve’s October meeting on 10/29, Fed Chair Powell made comments regarding the consumer, noting that “Data available prior to the shutdown show that growth in economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected, primarily reflecting stronger consumer spending.” He then went on to simply state, “Consumers are still spending.”
Based on data that the Federal Reserve has, consumer activity still looks strong, but the stock market seems to be sending a different message. The chart below shows YTD sector performance, and while the S&P 500 is still up close to 13% on the year, the Consumer Discretionary sector is the worst performer, and Consumer Staples is tied for the second worst. Both sectors are also two of just three sectors down on the year.
While neither consumer sector was a market leader at any point this year, both sectors have seen significant underperformance since the start of October, when the government shutdown started. While only four sectors are higher, Consumer Staples is down three times more than the S&P 500, and Consumer Discretionary is the worst-performing sector with a decline of 5.2%.
Nov 19, 2025
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“What we anticipate seldom occurs, what we least expected generally happens.” – Benjamin Disraeli
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After rallying off the morning lows yesterday, the major averages rallied back near the unchanged line but then drifted lower in the final hour of trading. This morning, equity futures are fractionally higher, while the 10-year yield is unchanged. Crude oil is sharply lower with a decline of 2.7% down to $59 per barrel on reports that the US and Russia may be near an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. Lower oil prices should be a welcome signal for anyone worried about inflation.
In Asia overnight, it was a mixed session with no major index up or down 1%, so maybe we’re starting to see some stabilization following a couple of days of weakness. It was a similar picture in Europe, as the STOXX 600 is up 0.1% and no major country benchmark is up or down 0.5%. Eurozone CPI increased 0.2% m/m in October, which was slightly higher than the 0.1% forecast, but core CPI was right in line with expectations, rising 0.3%.
Tom Petty said, “waiting is the hardest part,” and the market and investors can’t wait for Nvidia (NVDA) earnings after the close in hopes that it will help to get the market rally back on track. While results are widely expected to be good, if not great, the stock’s reaction will say a lot about the market’s posture heading into year-end.
The chart below from yesterday’s Chart of the Day shows the performance of Nasdaq since the launch of ChatGPT, and each red dot indicates days when Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings. The label between each pair of dots shows how the S&P 500 performed in that span. What’s amazing about the last three years is that in every period between NVDA earnings reports, the Nasdaq has traded higher. That kind of consistency is extremely uncommon and won’t last forever.
Below we show the same chart but have swapped out the Nasdaq for NVDA. While NVDA’s run has been impressive, it hasn’t traded higher between each of its earnings reports over the last three years. It fell 10% from last November to March of this year, and through yesterday’s close, it’s once again on pace for a decline, although a much more modest one than three quarters ago. If there’s one takeaway from the chart, the smooth, seemingly uninterrupted pace of gains since the launch of ChatGPT has ended.
Nov 18, 2025
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“Bitcoin is like anything else: it’s worth what people are willing to pay for it.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
In the world of spreadsheets, any financial model can tell you with precision what a stock or asset should be worth, but in the real world, just as the S&P 500 rarely has an ‘average’ annual return, stocks and other assets rarely trade at the price where they should trade. It doesn’t take long in the market to learn that sentiment is often just as important as fundamentals, and the last few weeks show that sentiment about what things are worth in many areas of the financial market has been shifting.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down about 0.5% with the Dow slightly weaker as a 3.4% decline in Home Depot (HD) following earnings drags on that index. The risk-off sentiment has treasury yields moving modestly lower, with the 10-year yield down to 4.10%. Crude oil is little changed but below $60 per barrel, gold is down over 1%, and Bitcoin is modestly lower after briefly breaking below $90,000 overnight (more on that below).
Asian stocks traded sharply lower in the aftermath of selling in the US yesterday. Japan and South Korea both fell over 3%, while Hong Kong was down closer to 2%, and China got off ‘easy’ with a fall of just 0.8%. The declines in Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI now have those indices down over 6% from their respective highs, but Japan is still up over 22% YTD and South Korea is up over 60%, so they’re still handily outperforming the S&P 500.
Europe is also taking a defensive tone this morning as major indices in the region are all down between 1% and 2%. There’s been no real catalyst behind the move besides the overall risk-off tone across global markets.
What people are willing to pay for Bitcoin today is a lot lower now than it was six weeks ago. After hitting record highs in early October, Bitcoin prices have been in free-fall, dropping more than 27% from their highs and to their lowest level since the tariff-tantrum in April. From a technical perspective, the 50-DMA has now crossed down through the 200-DMA, indicating a shift in the trend for crypto.
More notable about the recent weakness is that prices are now on pace for just the third down year since 2015. It’s been a painful six weeks, but if there’s any consolation, “HODLers” can take some comfort that this year’s decline is nowhere nearly as steep as the 64.3% decline in 2022 and the 73.8% decline in 2018.
With a decline of around 27% from its recent high, Bitcoin’s decline has been contained, at least relatively speaking. The chart below shows Bitcoin’s historical drawdowns from record highs, and the current decline has been tame compared to the historical norms. Since 2017, on any given day, Bitcoin’s median decline from an all-time high has been 40%.
What’s notable about the recent decline is that, over the weekend, Bitcoin ended a streak of 219 days without trading in a 25% drawdown. That was the longest streak since at least 2015.
While Bitcoin’s just-ended streak without a 25% decline was historic, one could argue it’s even more overdue for a 30% decline. Through yesterday, Bitcoin has gone nearly 22 months without falling more than 30% from an all-time high, but it is getting close…
Nov 17, 2025
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“There’s no such thing as simple. Simple is hard.” – Martin Scorsese
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s looking (for now) like another positive start to the week as S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are indicated higher. We say for now, because the tone was much more positive before the sun came up on the East Coast. In fact, futures on the Dow have actually moved into negative territory while the Nasdaq’s gain has been whittled down to 0.25%. The primary driver of the Nasdaq’s gain is a 4% rally in Alphabet (GOOGL) following news that Berkshire Hathaway acquired 18 million shares during Q3.
After moving up as high as 4.15% on Friday, the 10-year yield is down over 3 bps to 4.11%, crude oil is flat and barely hanging on to $60 per barrel, gold is modestly lower, and Bitcoin is higher, reversing overnight weakness that took its YTD performance negative for the year.
The week started on a mixed note in Asia. South Korean stocks rallied close to 2% as Samsung and SK Hynix rallied, but Japan and China both traded lower on geopolitical concerns after China advised citizens not to travel to Japan following comments made by the new Japanese PM Takaichi, regarding Taiwan. JGB yields in Japan also moved higher as the 20-year yield hit its highest levels since 1999.
European stocks started off the week higher but have reversed lower since the open and are now down across the board as the STOXX 600 falls 0.5%, led lower by a 1% drop in Spanish stocks.
Futures don’t look as positive as they did earlier, but as of this writing, they’re still higher, and if that pace remains the case, it will be historic for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Heading into this week, both indices have had positive returns on the first trading day of the week for ten straight weeks, which was one short of each index’s respective record streak from July 2020 coming out of the Covid crash lows.
Within the Nasdaq, there’s been some bifurcation in returns lately. On a YTD basis, the ten largest stocks in the index are all still up, but the range of returns varies widely. Palantir (PLTR) easily leads the group with a gain of over 130%, but three others in the top ten are still up at least 40% YTD. Last week, though, returns were much more scattered. Led lower by Tesla’s (TSLA) decline of nearly 6%, five of the ten largest stocks in the index were basically down at least 2%. At the other end of the spectrum, Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Nvidia (NVDA) were all up over 1%.
Relative to their respective 50-DMAs, the ten largest stocks are also all over the place. Meta (META) is an extreme as it closed out the week nearly 15% below its 50-DMA, but TSLA and Netflix (NFLX) are also more than 5% below their 50-DMAs as well. Meanwhile, two stocks in the S&P 500 – Alphabet (GGOGL) and AAAPL) – are more than 5% above their 50-DMAs.
