Dec 3, 2025
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“Sometimes reality is too complex. Stories give it form.” – Jean Luc Godard
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
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Yesterday was a true turnaround Tuesday as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and even Bitcoin erased most, if not all, of Monday’s declines. This morning, risk assets continued to move higher as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both look to open 0.2% higher while Bitcoin tests $93K. Gold and other metals are also up 0.5% to 1%, and even crude oil is up 1% and back above $59 per barrel. Treasury yields are also moving lower for the second day in a row, with the 10-year yield back down to 4.06%.
After being starved of economic data for several weeks, this morning we’ll get ADP Employment and PMI readings for the services sector, both current reports. In addition, the backlog of data will continue to ease as September reports covering Import Prices (8:30), Industrial Production (9:15), and Capacity Utilization (9:15) will also hit the tape.
In Asia overnight, the Nikkei rallied over 1% as Hong Kong fell 1% while South Korea added on another 1.0% after Q3 GDP came in higher than expected (1.3% vs 1.2% q/q). In Europe, the picture is more muted as the STOXX 600 gains 0.2%, and the only other countries moving up or down 0.2% or more are Italy (+0.5%) and Spain (+1.5%). Europe’s gains come as PMI reading for the services sector generally surprised to the upside. The only exception was Spain, which ironically is also the country with the largest gain on the day so far.
In last night’s Closer, we highlighted multiple equity baskets, which shed some light on how the economy is doing, and their performance is especially important given the lack of official economic data. Another index we follow closely as a gauge of the economy is semiconductors, which, many years ago, we branded the transports of the 21st century. When semis rally and outperform the market, it usually serves as a confirmation of a rally in the broader market and economy. Conversely, when semis falter and underperform, it serves as a red flag.
As shown in the chart below, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has performed extremely well since the April low. In retrospect, it’s been a smooth ride higher, although there were two speed bumps – in September and just recently – where the trend higher and the 50-DMA was briefly violated. In the moment, both pullbacks felt concerning, but as semis recovered, the selloffs were chalked up to consolidation. The SOX isn’t out of the woods yet, but through yesterday’s close, it was less than 3% from a new high.
On a relative strength basis, semis have also bounced back nicely. In late October and early November, the relative strength of the SOX briefly made a new high, and now just seven trading days after the recent low, it’s back within a 3% range of that high.
What really stands out about the rally in the SOX off the closing low on 11/20 is the breadth. Since the low, every stock in the index has traded higher, and the median gain has been 14.3%. What’s most impressive, though, is that Nvidia (NVDA) has sat out the rally with a gain of just 0.45% making it the worst-performing stock in the index. NVDA is the largest stock in both the SOX (by a wide margin) and the S&P 500, and during a period when it has essentially been flat, the two indices rallied 12.55% and 4.44%, respectively. It looks like the market can, in fact, rally without NVDA.
Dec 2, 2025
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“Colonel Jessup! Did you order the Code Red?!” – Lieutenant Daniel Kaffee, A Few Good Men
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Silicon Valley is abuzz this morning following reports that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a ‘code red’ on Monday as competition from Google and Anthropic intensifies. To fight the threats, initiatives like an advertising model, AI agents, and a personalized “Pulse” service for individual users have been temporarily put on hold. This latest story is just another example of how quickly the currents can change in the AI space, and that no one’s lead is safe.
Going back to the internet era, remember the ‘browser wars’? Google Chrome now dominates the browser space with about 70% market share, but you may find it hard to believe that it wasn’t released until 2008, more than eight years after the Internet bubble burst! There’s still a lot of runway left in the battle for AI supremacy.
US stocks started off December with broad-based declines as the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, but the Dow fared worse, falling nearly 1% as the Nasdaq outperformed, falling just 0.38 as Nvidia’s 2% gain propped that index up. The real area of weakness, though, was in the small-cap Russell 2000, which fell 1.25%. So much for the broadening trade.
Bulls started off the overnight session looking to put up a fight as S&P 500 futures rally 0.25% while the Nasdaq looks to open 0.38% higher. Crude oil is down fractionally as it wasn’t able to trade back above $60 in yesterday’s rally, while gold falls 1%, silver plunges 2%, and platinum falls even more (-2.38%). Crypto had a rough start to December, but has bounced back over 2% this morning, trading back above $87K.
Asian stocks saw mostly muted moves overnight. The one exception was South Korea, as the Kospi rallied nearly 2% following confirmation from US officials that tariffs on exports to the US would be cut to 15%. In Europe, the tone is also positive as the STOXX 600 bounces 0.3% with Germany rallying 0.60%.
In last night’s Closer, we looked at the performance of the Nasdaq over the three years since the release of ChatGPT and compared that performance to other major tech releases of the last 50 years. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, the Nasdaq has rallied more than 100% ranking as the strongest three-year return since the period coming out of Covid and the massive tech investment to facilitate the work-from-home era. Outside of that period, the only other three-year period that was stronger was the one coming out of the Financial Crisis.
In addition to the massive rally of the last three years, what stood out in the chart was how long it has been since the Nasdaq had a negative rolling three-year return. The last time it was negative was in August 2011, just after S&P downgraded the AAA sovereign US credit rating more than 14 years ago! The chart below shows streaks of positive readings in the Nasdaq’s rolling three-year return, and at a length of 3,590 trading days, the current streak easily ranks as the longest. Besides that, three years ago the Nasdaq was under 11,500, or more than 50% below current levels. In other words, barring a large decline, the current streak of positive three-year returns isn’t going away soon.
Dec 1, 2025
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“Many people are busy trying to find better ways of doing things that should not have to be done at all. There is no progress in merely finding a better way to do a useless thing.” – Henry Ford
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a zero-gravity rally on Friday that pushed the S&P 500 into positive territory for the month and extended the S&P 500’s monthly winning streak to seven, equities are rediscovering gravity to start December as futures on the major averages all trade lower. The Nasdaq is poised to open down nearly 1% while the S&P 500 faces a 0.7% decline. Even with equities falling, treasury yields are also higher as the 10-year ticks up 3 bps to 4.05%. Crude oil is up just over 1% as OPEC+ announced plans to maintain output levels rather than raise them, and gold is back near $4,300, gaining about 0.8%. The big loser on the day, though, is Bitcoin. With a decline of over 6%, the largest crypto is on pace for its worst day since March, and part of the weakness could be related to reports that Strategy (MSTR) could potentially be forced to sell some of its holdings to fund its dividend.
The weakness started in Asia as the Nikkei fell close to 2% as JGB yields continue hitting levels not seen since before the Financial Crisis, as expectations for a rate hike later this month solidify. In China, stocks went the other way with the Shanghai Composite rallying 0.7%, even as November Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs remained in contraction territory.
In Europe, the losses have been more uniform as the STOXX 600 falls 0.5% as Manufacturing PMIs for the economic bloc and individual countries missed expectations. The biggest loser on a country basis is Germany, as the DAX declines more than 1.5% as defense contractors have been especially weak on reports of progress in the Russia-Ukraine war talks.
As mentioned above, the S&P 500’s winning streak extended to seven in November, and that’s the longest streak of gains for the index in more than four years (August 2021). Since the end of WWII, there have been 15 other seven-month winning streaks, with the longest being eleven. Believe it or not, that happened three times, all of which were all in the 1950s. So, while history always talks about the roaring twenties, don’t forget about the fantastic fifties.
Outside of those three eleven-month winning streaks in the 1950s, the only other streak that extended into the double-digits was the 10-month streak that kicked off President Trump’s first term in office, ending in January 2018 (seventh month was October 2017). Getting back to the most recent streak, the seven months ending in August 2021 were followed by a sharp decline of 4.8% the following month, and weak returns thereafter.
Last week, right before Thanksgiving, we pointed out that the S&P 500 and other major US equity indices had quickly gone from oversold to neutral. In the two trading days since then, the rally kicked into another gear with little selling resistance (as evidenced by Friday’s rally), and all but two of the major equity index ETFs in our Trend Analyzer snapshot have moved into overbought territory. The only exceptions are the Russell Mic-Cap ETF (IWR) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and while they may not be overbought, they still rallied over 5% in the five trading days through last Friday’s close (from close on 11/20).
Of all the ETFs shown, every one of them was up at least 4% in the trailing five trading days. While large-cap ETFs lagged with gains of less than 5%, small caps had a day in the sun with the Russell Micro Cap ETF (IWC) surging 9% while the Russell 2000 ETF rallied over 8.5%. While usually not the case in recent months, this rally has been one where big gains came in small packages.
Nov 28, 2025
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“Scientific knowledge advances haltingly and is stimulated by contention and doubt.” – Claude Lévi-Strauss
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Hope everyone in the States had a great Thanksgiving! Futures are halted this morning following a technical glitch on the CME, but equity ETFs tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are indicated to open up 0.34% and 0.51% respectively, on this holiday-shortened day. Small caps are also higher with the Russell 2000 poised to open up 0.33%, although that won’t even be enough to erase the declines seen in the final half hour of trading on Wednesday. Treasury yields are little changed relative to Wednesday’s close, while crude oil and gold are both up about 0.60%. Even Bitcoin isn’t doing much this morning as it hovers just above $91K, although that’s a big improvement from the $86K level it was at on Wednesday afternoon.
Today may not seem like an important day, with many people taking the day off and the market open for only 3.5 hours, but it is coming down to the wire on the S&P 500’s six-month winning streak. Heading into today, the S&P 500 is down 0.40%, which is only slightly more than SPY’s current pre-market gain. So grab your popcorn, and don’t hit the mall just yet!
In most Asian markets, trading activity to close out the week was generally positive, adding to an already positive week. The one exception was South Korea, where the KOSPI fell 1.5%, taking its YTD gain down to just below 2% on the week. In Japan, CPI came in at 2.8% y/y, which was slightly higher than expected. Despite that increase, a BoJ policymaker contended that underlying inflation remains below their 2% target.
In Europe, trading is very quiet so far this morning, with the STOXX 600 up 0.1%, but the index and the individual country benchmarks that underly it are all firmly in positive territory for the week. French CPI data for November unexpectedly declined 0.1% versus expectations for an unchanged reading.
From a market perspective, there was a lot to be thankful for yesterday, especially given where it stood at various points in the year. As we head into the last day of the penultimate month of 2025, we wanted to take a quick look at how the S&P 500 has historically performed on the final trading day of November and the first trading day of December.
Earlier this week, we showed how Black Friday has historically been a positive day for stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a one-day gain of 0.24%. However, Black Friday isn’t usually the last trading day of the month, and market performance hasn’t been particularly strong on that day. Since the five-trading-day week in its current form began in late 1952, the S&P 500’s median performance on the last trading day of the month has been a gain of 0.04% with positive returns 52% of the time.
The worst year was in 1987, when the market was still reeling from the October crash, and the S&P 500 fell 4.18% while the best day was in 2011 – another volatile year – when the S&P 500 rallied 4.33%. 2022 was the third-best performance for the last day of November when the S&P 500 saw a nice gain of 3.09% in the early weeks of the bull market. That also happened to be the exact day that ChatGPT came into our lives!
The first trading day of December has also been as bland as an overcooked turkey with no gravy. Since 1952, the S&P 500’s average performance on the first trading day of the month has been a decline of 0.09% with positive returns just 47% of the time. The best performance was a gain of 2.16% in 2010, while the worst was a year earlier in 2008, when the S&P 500 plunged 8.93%. 8.93%! Think about that for a second. We didn’t even fall that much in the latest market pullback (at least not yet), and some people were already acting like it was the end of the world, but in 2008, the S&P 500 fell that much in a single day!
If you’ve been around the block a few times, it may sound hard to believe, but there are now people with driver’s licenses and/or who are applying to college that were born after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in 2008. Time has a way of dulling memories, especially the bad ones, so for both people who weren’t around during the Financial Crisis and those who were (and just may not have been paying attention), it’s easy to forget how crazy that time was.
That 8.93% decline on the first trading day of December wasn’t just an outlier. In November 2008, the S&P 500 had a daily move of +/-5% on eight of the month’s 19 trading days, and in the three months after Lehman’s bankruptcy, there were 18. That’s more than once every four days!
A better way to show this, though, is to look at an intraday chart of the S&P 500 in the three months following Lehman’s bankruptcy. On the Friday before Lehman went belly up, the S&P 500 closed at 1,251.70. Besides a brief period in the following days, it didn’t reach that level again for a few years, and by Thanksgiving, just over two months later, more than 40% of the S&P 500’s market value was vaporized. Also, you almost need to squint to see it, but that red ‘scratch’ on the right of the November low represents the 8.93% one-day decline from 12/1/08. In the markets, just like life, everything is relative.
Nov 26, 2025
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“Stop worrying about the world ending today. It’s already tomorrow in Australia.” – Charles Schulz
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s only Wednesday, but today is the last full trading day of the week, so it feels like a Friday. Futures look poised to extend the rally from last Friday into a fourth day with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures up 0.2% after reclaiming their 50-day moving averages yesterday. The Nasdaq’s gain comes despite another 1% decline for Nvidia (NVDA), which has hit a rough patch of news in the last few days. After yesterday’s reports that Meta (META) was looking to purchase some AI chips from Alphabet (GOOGL) to diversify from NVDA, this morning, The Information is reporting that China continues to move away from NVDA chips, with the latest example being a government order blocking ByteDance from using NVDA chips in its datacenters.
Since markets are closed tomorrow, weekly jobless claims came out early this week, so after weeks of delayed reports, now we’re getting an early report! The early news was also good as both initial and continuing claims came in lower than forecast. Durable Goods and Cap Goods orders were also released and came in better than expected. Along with these reports, the Chicago PMI report for November comes out at 9:45.
Outside of equities, treasury yields are basically flat, with the 10-year yield right at 4%. Crude oil is fractionally lower again, while gold trades marginally higher, and bitcoin is lower.
Asian markets finished the mid-week session mostly higher. The lone exception was China’s Shanghai Composite, which saw a modest decline. South Korea led the region higher with a gain of 2.7% while Japan finished up 1.9%. European markets are mostly higher, with the STOXX 600 up 0.4%, but Germany is underperforming after the IMF says that the economy is likely to undershoot growth expectations given its current trajectory.
Whenever we hear the term “neutral,” we associate it with the word stuck giving it a negative connotation. There’s nothing negative about the neutral state of the major US equity indices, though, since it follows what were mostly oversold conditions last week at this time. As shown in the snapshot below, a week ago, all the index ETFs in our Trend Analyzer snapshot were below their 50-day moving averages, and most of them were oversold. As of yesterday’s close, none of them were oversold, and all of them were above their 50-DMAs. We’ll take neutral!
While bulls have welcomed the rebound in US equities, large-cap stocks still have more work to do before breaking the short-term downtrends that have been in place since the October highs. As shown in the two charts below, the S&P 500 ETF closed yesterday just below that downtrend line, while QQQ tested that downtrend yesterday and even peeked above it, depending on how hard you squint.
As the snapshot above illustrates, small-cap stocks have led the rally over the last five trading days with gains of about 5% compared to gains of about half that for their large-cap peers. With that outperformance, the Russell 2000 broke its downtrend from the October highs. Is this the long-awaited broadening we’ve all been waiting for?
Nov 25, 2025
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“You have put me in here a cub, but I will come out roaring like a lion, and I will make all hell howl!” – Carrie Nation
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s an eventful morning in markets, but futures are little changed on all the cross-currents with the S&P 500 indicated to open up less than 0.10% while the Nasdaq is indicated to open down less than 0.10%. While futures on the Nasdaq are little changed, it comes are the index’s largest component – Nvidia (NVDA) – is down 5% while its third-largest component – Alphabet (GOOGL) – is up 4%.
Crude oil is down over 1% on reports of a truce in the Russia-Ukraine war while gold is up over 1%, and Bitcoin is down 2%. In Asia, major benchmarks were modestly higher, even as Softbank fell 10% as that stock corrects hard as investors question some of its massive and concentrated AI investments. In Europe, the tone is also muted with the STOXX 600 up 0.2%.
We also got some government economic data this morning, although it was from September, so it’s as stale as the bread you may be using for your Thanksgiving stuffing. Overall. the Retail Sales report for September was modestly weaker than expected while PPI was also slightly weaker.
It’s up again?
It’s up again!
When it comes to Alphabet (GOOGL), whether you identify with the phrasing above that uses the question mark or the exclamation point depends on whether you own it or not. We’ve seen a lot of unbelievable moves in mega-cap stocks in the last few years, but the recent surge in GOOGL ranks right up there with any of the others. Following news reports this morning that Meta Platforms (META) is considering the purchase of Google TPU chips for its data centers in 2027, the stock is up another 4% this morning which would take its one week gain to 16.7%. After trading as low as $140 back in April, the stock is up over 135%.
With the steep rally we have seen in GOOGL shares over the last few months, the stock is poised to trade 65% above its 200-DMA today. In the company’s entire history as a public company, that would be the most extended the stock has ever traded relative to its 200-DMA.
Besides the 135% rally off the April lows, over the last six months, GOOGL shares have rallied nearly 90%. The table below lists the ten largest gainers in the S&P 500 over the last six months, and GOOGL currently ranks eighth. In another sign that Tech and Communication Services still rule this market, the only two stocks on the list not from these sectors were Albemarle (ALB) and Robinhood (HOOD). What makes GOOGL stand out from the rest of the names is its market cap. At $3.8 trillion through yesterday’s close, GOOGL’s market cap is more than ten times larger than the next closest stock listed. It’s like an aircraft carrier sprinting with a fleet of skiffs.
Last night after the close, news hit the tape that Sandisk (SNDK) would be added to the S&P 500 effective Friday (11/28). With the stock up nearly 500% over the last six months, the list of current top performers over the last six months is eating its dust. Looking at the chart below, it’s hard to imagine why, from a market timing perspective, anyone would think that now is a good time to add the stock to an index.
The people who make the decisions to add and subtract stocks to the various indices aren’t market timers, though. And while there are plenty of other stocks out there that would make worthy candidates, SNDK currently resides in the S&P 600 Small Cap Index. With a market cap of over $33 billion, though, it’s hardly a small cap, and it casts a large shadow over all the other stocks in the index in terms of size. After SNDK, the next largest stock in the S&P 600 is SPX Technologies (SPXC), but its market cap is less than a third of SNDK’s market cap. So, why not put it in the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, you may ask. That would have been an option, but even in that index, SNDK would have already been the largest company in the index based on market cap. Even in the S&P 500, SNDK will still be larger than 228 of the index’s 500 components. Sometimes stocks become so large that there’s just nowhere else to put them!
