Dec 11, 2025
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“In today’s regulatory environment, it’s virtually impossible to violate rules.” – Bernard Madoff
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
17 years ago today, all hell was already breaking loose in financial markets as the banking sector had imploded three months earlier. Lehman’s bankruptcy accelerated a chain of failures and near-failures in some of the country’s most well-established banks. As if the market needed any more bombs hurled at it, along came the “Breaking News” interruptions on the news channels of a Ponzi scheme surrounding a man named Bernie Madoff. We’ve come a long way in the last 17 years, and after yesterday’s Fed meeting, the S&P 500 is back right near record highs and has rallied nearly 10-fold after accounting for dividends.
This morning, equity futures are taking a breather. Oracle (ORCL) earnings after the close last put renewed doubt on the AI trade, and the stock is down 13% as investors question whether the company can fund its ambitious capex plans. If that magnitude of decline, it would be the stock’s largest downside gap in reaction to earnings since at least 2001. Make sure to read our detailed discussion of ORCL earnings and investor concerns regarding the stock and the AI trade in the commentary section of today’s report.
After trading down close to 1% overnight, though, S&P 500 futures have rebounded and are now down just 0.3% while the Nasdaq is down 0.5%. Treasury yields are down another 3 basis points (bps) to 4.13%, and crude oil is down below $58 per barrel, falling over 1%. Gold is fractionally higher, but Bitcoin and other crypto assets have reversed all of their gains from the prior 24 hours.
In Asia, stocks traded mostly lower, with the Nikkei down 0.9% and South Korea down 0.6% as ORCL’s earnings dragged on the region. In Europe, though, we’re seeing modest gains across the board with the STOXX 600 trading 0.2% higher.
In the US, the only economic data release on the calendar this morning was jobless claims. Initial claims came in higher than expected at 236K (versus 220K), erasing all of last week’s surprising decline. Meanwhile, continuing claims showed a sharp decline, falling to 1.838 million, or 100K less than expected. The continuing claims number is lagged a week, so the sharp drop in initial claims last week was likely a holiday quirk.
The S&P 500 closed within fractions of a new high yesterday, and the same sectors that have driven the market this year are the ones that have driven the rally over the last week. As shown in the snapshot below, Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials are the only two sectors up over 1% in the last five trading days, and they’re also the three best-performing sectors this year.
While the S&P 500 closed within whiskers of a new high and tech has led the rally, the Technology sector still has a ways to go before hitting a new high, as yesterday’s close was more than 2% below the late-October high. What stands out about the chart, though, is how much green there has been in the candles since the November low.
In fact, with 13 straight days of gains and 13 straight days of positive returns from the open to close, the Technology sector ETF (XLK) is knocking on the door of history. The 13 days in a row of daily gains are tied for the longest in the ETF’s history, dating back to 1999. The only other streak as long ended in February 2017. Similarly, the streak of open-to-close rallies is just one shy of the 14-day streak that also ended in February 2017.
What surprised us most about the Technology sector’s recent run is the stocks that have been driving the bus. Nine Technology sector stocks are up over 25% since the close on 11/20, and the majority are semiconductor stocks. One semi-stock not on the list of winners, though, is Nvidia (NVDA). While it’s not down since 11/20, NVDA’s 1.74% gain ranks as the eighth-worst performance in the sector. Also on the list of laggards is Microsoft (MSFT), which is barely higher since 11/20 (+0.03%). These two stocks collectively account for about 25% of the entire Technology sector, but as they have tread water over the last two weeks, the sector they dominate has still rallied over 9%. Is the baton being passed?
Dec 10, 2025
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“I am in a charming state of confusion.” – Ada Lovelace
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
On a Fed day, we’d normally say that wherever the futures are in the pre-market, don’t expect the market to be there after the decision is announced, let alone after Powell talks. Based on recent history, though, volatility on Fed days has been muted. As we noted in today’s Chart of the Day, the S&P 500’s average absolute daily change on the last five Fed days has been among the most muted relative to any other rolling five Fed day period since 1994. So, maybe the muted moves in futures markets are on to something!
Outside of equities, the 10-year yield is up 2 bps and back above 4.2% as part of a global move higher yields. Crude oil prices are also up fractionally but still below $58 per barrel, while the slide in natural gas continues as prices break below $4.50. Metal prices are all over the map as gold prices are slightly lower, while silver rallies over 1% and platinum falls over 1%. In the crypto pace, it’s also a mixed but downwardly biased morning as bitcoin falls 1%.
International markets have also been quiet overnight and this morning ahead of the Fed, as most major benchmarks saw, or are seeing, modest declines. Chinese CPI was weaker than expected, falling 0.1% versus forecasts for an increase of 0.2% while PPI in Japan was right in line with forecasts.
Warren Buffett has famously said of gold that it “gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.” While other precious metals like platinum and silver have more industrial uses than gold, based on public records, it has been decades since Buffett has been active in them. The primary reason Buffett has generally avoided commodities is that they are essentially a bet on future supply and demand rather than income-generating assets.
While they don’t produce income, precious metals are commodities that have produced massive capital gains this year. Gold (GLD) has rallied 60%, and those gains look modest relative to the 86.3% gain in platinum (PLTM) and the massive 109.5% gain in Silver (SLV).
For all three precious metals, the YTD gains would be enough to rank near the top of the list in terms of YTD performance. With its 109.5% gain, SLV would be the tenth-best stock in the S&P 500 this year, ahead of Intel (INTC) and behind AppLovin (APP). Nothing against AppLovin and its prospects over the next several years, but 100 years from now, which do you think has a better chance of still being around in its current form? Silver or AppLovin?
While the gains in Platinum and Gold wouldn’t crack the top ten in terms of performance, the former’s 86.3% gain would rank as number 14 in the S&P 500, while Gold would rank number 34.
Looking at the ten best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year, all of them are up by at least 100%, and all but three are from the Technology sector. The top four performing stocks have not only had triple-digit returns, but they’ve also at least tripled! Sticking to the commodities theme, three of those stocks – Western Digital (WDC), Seagate Technology (STX), and Micron (MU) – all make data storage and memory products, which in the universe of the technology sector have for years been considered commodities as well.
Dec 9, 2025
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“Lesson Number One: Don’t Underestimate The Other Guy’s Greed!” – Frank Lopez, Scarface
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Bespoke’s Paul Hickey will be on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street today at 10 AM. Make sure to check it out!
Markets remain on snooze with little conviction in either direction this morning, and while investors “waiting for the Fed” has been the excuse, is there really any question over what Powell will say and do tomorrow? Futures are as close to unchanged as you can really get this morning, with the S&P 500 indicated to open up 1 point (0.18%) while the Nasdaq is faring “significantly” worse, down 0.06%. As we wait for the Fed, there is some economic data today. Small Business sentiment hit the tape earlier and came in modestly higher than expected, while JOLTS will hit the tape at 10 AM.
Overnight in Asia, it was a ho-hum session with the Nikkei up 0.1% while China, South Korea, and India were all down fractionally (less than 0.5%). The RBA left rates unchanged but had a hawkish tone. In Europe, the STOXX is down 0.1%.
We had a power outage at the Bespoke offices yesterday afternoon, and coincidence or not, have you seen a chart of the Utilities sector recently? After being one of the better performing sectors this year, the sector started to fall on hard times since mid-October, to the point where in late November it broke its uptrend from the April lows. From there, the weakness in the sector picked up in intensity. The fact that longer-term interest rates have been rising hasn’t helped.
The recent weakness in the sector has also brought its relative strength versus the S&P 500 to a new low for the year. After handily outperforming during the tariff-tantrum in the Spring, the sector started performing in line with the broader market. For much of the last six months, its relative strength oscillated above and below the neutral line, but the last two weeks have seen it make a new leg lower.
Given the power demands of AI, there have been times in the last few years when Utilities have been considered a technology play, but when you compare the sector’s performance to the Technology sector, it’s not even close. Utilities have been trending lower for the last six months.
The disparity is also apparent when you compare the percentage of stocks in each sector trading above their 50-day moving averages. The Utilities are experiencing a “blackout” in this metric as not a single sector closed above its 50-DMA yesterday. That compares to more than half of stocks in the Technology sector. After some trial and error last night, Con Ed finally got the power back on in our offices last night, now they need to work on getting some power back to the sector!
Dec 8, 2025
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“I’ve noticed that when people are joking they’re usually dead serious, and when they’re serious, they’re usually pretty funny.” – Jim Morrison
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As investors await Wednesday’s Fed meeting, there’s a modestly positive bias to futures as the S&P 500 knocks on the door of a new high. There’s no economic data on the calendar, so the main area of focus is Wednesday’s Fed meeting, where the market is pricing in a greater than 90% chance of a 25 bps rate cut. While a rate cut is a near certainty, the odds of another cut in January are relatively low, and the consensus is that Powell’s commentary will be hawkish.
Stocks in Asia got off to a mixed start on little news. The Nikkei finished marginally higher, but Hong Kong was down over 1% and China was up fractionally as export data showed a 5.9% y/y increase versus forecasts for growth of just 3.8%. Japan’s Q3 GDP was weaker than expected, falling 0.6%, so the slower growth, coupled with higher inflation, spells out a tough recipe for the BoJ.
European stocks are also showing little direction this morning as the STOXX 600 is little changed, and no individual country benchmark index is up or down 0.3%.
It’s been 28 trading days since the S&P 500 last closed at a record high right before the Fed’s last meeting and Powell’s hawkish cut on 10/29. As we approach this Wednesday’s meeting, though, the S&P 500 is just 30 bps from that October high and its 37th record closing high of the year. With just 17 trading days left this year, even if we hit a record high on every remaining day this year, it wouldn’t be enough to overtake last year’s total of 57, but even if there wasn’t another record high again this year, 36 is still an impressive total.
Since 1953, when the five-trading-day week in its current form started, the average number of record closing highs by year is 18.5. As the chart below illustrates, though, the number can vary widely. In 28 of the last 73 years, there have been no record highs, so there were plenty of valleys after deep bear markets where the market had to rally back over the course of years to dig out of its hole. Earlier this century, there was a six-year drought from 2001 through 2006, and then after just nine record highs in 2007, there was another five-year drought from 2008 through 2012.
Since 2013, there has been just one year without any record highs, while there was just one in 2022. This chart, more than anything, illustrates the nature of the secular bull market US stocks have been in for the last decade or more. As the chart illustrates, though, these periods don’t last forever.
Whether the new highs start flowing again will likely be dictated by the performance of the trillion-dollar stocks. Collectively, the nine stocks in the S&P 500 with market caps of at least a trillion account for nearly 40% of the S&P 500. What’s interesting to note about these nine stocks is that while they’re all up YTD, only three of them – Alphabet (GOOGL), Broadcom (AVGO), and Nvidia (NVDA) – are outperforming the S&P 500 YTD. Not only that, but last week, more than half of them were down, so it’s not as though the group, as a cohort, has become wildly extended. Certain stocks may be overbought in the short-term, but there are also stocks like Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and NVDA that head into the week below their 50-DMAs.
Dec 5, 2025
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“What America needs now is a drink.” – Franklin Roosevelt, 12/5/33
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s been a modestly positive week already, and futures are looking to modestly add to those gains with the S&P 500 up 0.20% and Nasdaq futures pointing to a gain of 0.3%. Bond yields are marginally higher on the day ahead of important (but stale) inflation data, and the 10-year yield is just below 4.12%. Crude oil and gold are little changed, but silver prices are up another 1.5% while copper is up just over 1%. Lastly, crypto prices are lower across the board, but the losses are contained at just 1.3% for Bitcoin.
In Asia, the Nikkei fell 1.1% but still managed to finish the week up 0.5% as yields at the long end of the curve continue to hit multi-year highs. Outside of Japan, though, other indices in the region are trading higher, finishing in positive territory for the week.
European stocks are higher across the board again this morning. The STOXX 600 is poised to close out the week with a gain of nearly 1%, while German stocks lead the region higher as factory orders rose more than expected. Q3 GDP for the entire Eurozone also rose slightly more than expected (0.3% vs 0.2% forecast).
It may have been a Tuesday, but for many Americans, December 5, 1933, probably felt like a Friday. Earlier in the day, Pennsylvania and Ohio had already ratified it, but at 5:32 PM Eastern time, the state of Utah became the 36th state to ratify the 21st Amendment. The amendment repealed the 18th Amendment, and with Utah’s passage, the 21st Amendment achieved the three-fourths majority required for it to become law, ending the nearly 14-year period of national Prohibition in the United States.
Liquor and tobacco stocks have historically been considered recession-proof investments for most of the last 100 years. However, in the last few decades, tobacco stocks have fallen out of favor due to escalating health concerns and heavy government regulation. In recent years, many of the same pressures surrounding tobacco have begun to affect the stocks of alcohol companies. Between emerging health concerns, the proliferation of GLP-1 treatments that suppress the urge to drink, and the rising popularity of cannabis, alcohol stocks have been taking punches from multiple directions.
As the snapshot illustrates, the majority of major alcohol purveyors have experienced significant Year-To-Date (YTD) declines, with most falling over 20%. While Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) may appear to be an outlier and is not down by the same extent, the broader trend is one of sharp underperformance across the sector. More recently, individual stock performance has been mixed: Brown-Forman (BF/B) has seen a multi-week rally, and Constellation Brands (STZ) is also currently trading marginally above its 50-day moving average (50-DMA).
The one-year charts of these six stocks are a sobering picture of underperformance, making you want to grab a drink and drown your sorrows rather than celebrate. Even BUD, while up YTD, is down sharply off its high, but the other five stocks remain mired in steep downtrends.
Finally, just because tobacco stocks have fallen out of favor, you could have done worse. As shown in the chart below, from a price perspective, shares of Altria (MO) underperformed the S&P 500, but not by a ton. What the price chart doesn’t account for is dividends. MO has a much larger dividend than the S&P 500, and when you take those dividends into account since the start of 2005, they add up. Had you reinvested dividends back into the stock, MO’s total return would have been over 1,300% compared to a total return of 730% in the S&P 500. Whatever you think of tobacco stocks and their impact on the health of the population, investing in them over the last twenty years has been anything but putting your money up in smoke. See you all at 5:32!
Dec 4, 2025
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“It’s not the pace of life I mind. It’s the sudden stop at the end.” – Thomas Hobbes
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There’s very little going on in futures trading this morning as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both indicated to open ever so slightly higher. Treasury yields, meanwhile, are moving up about 3 bps across the curve, with the 10-year yield up near 4.10%. Crude oil is modestly higher, up 0.7%, but the big move remains in the natural gas space as prices are now above $5 for the first time in close to three years. In the metals space, gold and other precious metals are all lower, but the losses are contained at less than 1%. Even the crypto space is quiet as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are all up or down less than 1%.
In Asia, equities were mixed. While South Korea and China were marginally lower, Hong Kong finished up 0.7% while Japan surged 2.3%. Two catalysts behind the move were a strong 30-year JGB auction and a rally in tech stocks. Shares of Softbank rallied more than 9% following reports that it plans to increase its investment in OpenAI before the end of the year.
European stocks have been trading broadly positive this morning. The STOXX 600 is up 0.4%, and every major country’s benchmark index is trading up on the day. Germany is leading the way higher, up 0.8% as auto stocks rally following yesterday’s announcement from the Trump Administration that it would lower fuel-efficiency standards. Italy and the UK, however, are just barely hanging on to gains of 0.1%. In economic data, Retail Sales for the Eurozone were unchanged in October, and slightly higher than expected on a y/y basis (1.5% vs 1.4% forecast).
Getting back to Softbank, shares rallied 9% overnight, following a 6% gain on Wednesday. The chart below shows the performance of Softbank ADRs over the last year, and the last three months have been, to put it mildly, a roller coaster. Heading into today’s session, the stock is down 39% from its high in late October. Yet, despite that plunge, it was still 26% above its 200-DMA and 4% above where it closed 3 months ago. It’s hard to remember a stock that has plunged that much over six weeks, yet was still well above its long-term moving average and positive over the last three months.
The volatility in Softbank is also evident in the day-to-day moves of Softbank stock. With last night’s 9% rally, the stock has now moved 5% or more in 20 of the last 50 trading days. To find a period where the stock saw more volatility in its day-to-day moves, you have to go back to November 2008. In the stock’s entire history, there have only been three periods when the stock had more 5% daily moves in a 50-trading-day span. The other two were in December 2003 and May 2000, when there were 41 in 50 trading days! It’s not like Softbank is a small-cap stock either. With a market cap of over $150 billion, it’s the fourth-largest stock in the Nikkei 225!
