Jan 16, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“My advisers built a wall between myself and my people. I didn’t realize what was happening. When I woke up, I had lost my people.” – Mohammed Reza Pahlavi
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures are bucking a general trend of weakness in international markets and are poised to open modestly higher. S&P 500 futures are indicated to open 0.15% higher, while the Nasdaq is looking at a gain of over 0.4%. Tech is leading the way higher as chip and memory stocks rally, while we’re seeing mixed reactions to earnings from regional banks. Treasuries are selling off as the 10-year yield pushes up near 4.2%, and crude oil is trading up over 1% to just under $60 per barrel. Metals are seeing weakness as gold is down nearly 1% while silver and platinum are down over 4%. Lastly, Bitcoin is up fractionally and above $95K, and Ether pushes up above $3,300.
Asian stocks ended the week on a mixed note but finished the week generally higher. The Nikkei fell 0.3% but finished the week up nearly 4%, while the Hang Seng was down by the same amount and finished the week 2.3% higher. China was the only outlier as the Shanghai Composite also traded down 0.3%, taking its YTD decline to 0.5%. South Korea traded 0.9% higher to close out the week (what else is new) and finished the week 5.6% higher.
Europe appears poised to close out the week on a sluggish note. The STOXX 600 is down 0.2% but still on pace for a weekly gain. France is the biggest laggard this morning as the CAC 40 drops nearly 1%, setting the stage for a weekly decline of 1.4%. The DAX is down close to 0.5% and teetering around the unchanged level for the week. December CPI in Germany was unchanged, which took the year/year rate down to 1.8%.
Getting back to the performance of South Korea, 2025 was already a strong year for the country, but it hasn’t skipped a beat so far in 2026. The chart below shows the performance of the MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), and even after accounting for changes in the currency, it’s been a series of record highs all year.
In local currency terms, the KOSPI traded higher on all eleven trading days this year. That’s an impressive streak, but it had another streak of the same length back in September. Before that, though, you have to go back to 2019 to find a streak lasting as long or longer. In fact, that 13-day streak in September 2019 was tied with a streak in April 2019 and February 1984 for the longest on record.
Over its current eleven-day winning streak, the KOSPI has rallied 14.9%, which ranks as the best start to a year for the index over 11 trading days since 2001 (19.6%). Since 1981, there have been four other years when the KOSPI rallied more than 10% in the first eleven trading days of the year. When you think about it, it’s interesting to see how a parallel to this period for the KOSPI traces back to the period starting in 1998, which is also just where we would be based on the comparison between the Nasdaq following the launch of Chat GPT versus its performance following the launch of Netscape in the early to mid-1990s.
Jan 15, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Nothing makes a man so adventurous as an empty pocket.” – ― Victor Hugo, The Hunchback of Notre Dame
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures are higher this morning, with the S&P 500 indicated to open 0.4% higher while the Nasdaq, driven by strong earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), looks to open up nearly 1%. After weak reactions to earnings from the major banks over the last two days, Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) reported better-than-expected results but are experiencing muted to modestly negative reactions in their stocks.
Treasury yields are little changed, but at 4.14%, the 10-year yield is very well behaved. After surging above $62 per barrel yesterday as a strike on Iran seemed like a certainty, WTI is down over 4% and back below $60 this morning. Gold and other precious metals are also pulling back, but by much more modest amounts.
In Europe this morning, the STOXX 600 is up 0.5% as shares of ASML rallied more than 5% and saw their market cap exceed half a trillion dollars. Asian stocks were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei falling 0.4% (it can’t go up every day) while China was down a more modest 0.3%. South Korea, however, bucked the trend and rallied 1.6% (apparently, it can seemingly rally every day).
We just got a flurry of economic data, and the results were all stronger than expected. Both the Philly Fed and Empire Manufacturing reports topped expectations, and jobless claims were lower than expected on both an initial and continuing basis. Initial claims were even below 200K. The only fly in the ointment was Import Prices, which rose 0.1% m/m versus forecasts for a decline of 0.2%. In reaction the reports, yields ticked a little higher, and equity futures improved modestly.
While large brokerage/investment banking-centric firms like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are seeing modest reactions to earnings, the same can’t be said for the largest money center banks, which reported this week. Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all traded down at least 3% on their reaction days this week. For most, it was their worst earnings reaction day performance in over a year, and for BAC, it was the worst since October 2020!
The weakness in the stocks has been a disappointment and a drag on the market this week, but keep in mind that these stocks were trading at record highs last week. They’ve also had to contend with the President’s call for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates. After the initial weakness yesterday, the Financial sector found some support at its 50-day moving average and ended up finishing the day right near the prior highs from last Fall. Provided the weakness eases from here, it’s nothing more than some consolidation.
The major banks are the first companies to report earnings every quarter, so their results and how their stocks react tend to get a lot of investor focus. Therefore, with all four reacting negatively to earnings, it raises the question of whether it’s a flock of canaries warning of bigger problems ahead.
The chart below shows the performance of the SPDR Financial Sector ETF (XLF) since 2000, and the blue dots indicate every time that all four money center banks declined on their earnings reaction days in the same earnings season, while the red dots indicate each time all four stocks declined at least 1%. There have been 14 other times that all four stocks declined on their earnings reaction day in the same earnings season, but there have only been three earnings seasons when all three declined 1%. Of those three, the only time all four stocks declined more than 3% was in April 2020 when the economy was shutdown from Covid! So, it’s uncommon to see all four stocks simultaneously react so poorly to earnings.
Jan 14, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“While any number of risks continue, we are bullish on the U.S. economy in 2026.” -Brian Moynihan
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Bespoke’s Paul Hickey appeared on Making Money with Charles Payne yesterday to discuss the markets in the post-Covid world and what to expect in 2026. To view the segment, click on the image below.
After a modestly negative Tuesday, futures are trading on the back foot once again this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 0.36% while the Nasdaq is even weaker, indicated to open down by 0.5%. Oil prices are higher as traders eye the simmering tensions in Iran and anticipate a possible disruption to supplies from the country. That’s also translated to a flight to safety trade in gold and other precious metals. Gold is up 1%, silver is up over 5%, while platinum is up 3%. A few weeks ago, a lot of traders thought these moves were getting long in the tooth, but those teeth now look like fangs. Even crypto assets have caught a bid in recent days as Bitcoin is back above $95K and Ether is up near 3,300.
After yesterday’s tame CPI, we just got PPI along with Retail Sales. PPI was a strange report as the m/m numbers were either inline with or weaker than expected, but the y/y readings came in much higher than expected at 3% compared to forecasts for 2.7%. These are hotter than expected inflation readings, but PPI is a volatile report. Retail Sales, also released at 8:30, were better than expected. The only other report on the calendar is Existing Home Sales at 10 AM, and given the lower mortgage rates recently, we could see some strength in that report.
The pace of earnings is also starting to pick up as Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all reported results this morning. All three companies exceeded bottom-line forecasts, while WFC was the only one to report weaker sales. As a result of its revenue miss, WFC is trading down about 2% while the other two stocks are hugging the flat line.
In Asia overnight, it was a mixed session. Japan extended its streak of 1%+ daily moves to seven with a gain of 1.5%. China was down modestly (-0.3%), while South Korea was up 0.7%. In Europe, there’s been little movement so far this morning. The STOXX 600 is basically unchanged as most major benchmarks in the region are marginally higher, but modest weakness in Germany weighs.
Yesterday’s 4%+ decline in shares of JPM ranked as the eighth most negative reaction to earnings for the stock since at least 2001 and the weakest since April 2024. The stock’s negative reaction to earnings raised some concerns surrounding the stock as well as the broader market, but as we noted in yesterday’s COTD, JPM’s reaction to earnings isn’t exactly a great bellwether for broad market. They’re not even a great bellwether for the stock’s future performance.
The chart below shows the stock’s performance since the start of 2020, and the red and green dots represent each of the company’s earnings reports since then. Red dots indicate days when the stock had a negative one-day reaction to earnings, while green dots indicate positive reactions. Yesterday was the third straight quarter that JPM had a negative reaction to earnings, but as the chart illustrates, the prior two weak reactions weren’t an especially ominous signal as the stock hit new all-time highs following each of them. JPM had a similar streak in 2024, and once again, between each of them, the stock hit all-time highs. From late 2020 through mid-2022, there was another extended streak of eight straight negative reactions, and while the stock held up well early on in that streak, towards the later stretch of that streak, the stock finally rolled over. All in all, though, a weak one-day reaction has tended to be a weak one-day reaction and nothing more.
Moving on from JPM to Japan, last night’s rally in the Nikkei extended an impressive run to start the year. After just seven days of trading, the Nikkei is up 7.95%, which ranks as the best start to a year for that index since at least 1971. Before this year, the record was in 1994 when it rallied 7.9% in the first seven trading days. Besides 1994, the only other years that the Nikkei rallied more than 5% in the first seven trading days of the year were 1971, 1976, and, most recently, in 2024.
Jan 13, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“There’s nothing more dangerous than someone who wants to make the world a better place.” – Banksy
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s a banksy type of morning in the US as some of the largest financial institutions in the world start to release Q4 results. JP Morgan (JPM) missed on the top and bottom line, but there werecharges included in the results, and the stock is trading marginally higher. BNY Mellon (BK) reported better-than-expected EPS and sales, and its stock is fractionally lower. The only other major report of the morning was Delta (DAL), which also reported better-than-expected top and bottom-line results, but its stock is down over 3% in the pre-market. So, it’s not necessarily how you report versus expectations that matters.
Drama surrounding Fed Chair Powell and the subpoenas issued has subsided this morning as Jeanine Pirro softened her stance towards the issue, and the White House says they were not made aware of the actions beforehand. For now, it appears as though the story will be one more in a litany of ‘shocking’ headlines that don’t amount to anything.
The big news of the morning was the December CPI, and after questions surrounded the lower-than-expected November print, many were expecting a hot print for December as the integrity of the data that makes up the report improved. They were wrong. Headline CPI was right in line with forecasts while the core reading came in a tenth weaker than expected on both a m/m and y/y basis. In response to the report, futures experienced a modest bounce and are now firmly in positive territory, while Treasury yields are lower. Crude oil is up another 1% this morning as WTI trades back above $60, while gold is basically flat, as other precious metals trade modestly higher. Finally, bitcoin is higher again this morning and trading back above $92K. The gains also follow reports that a Strategy director purchased 5,000 shares of the company’s stock for just under $800K.
In Asia, it was a mixed session. While Japan returned from Monday’s holiday with a monster 3.1% rally, other indices in the region didn’t fare as well. It’s not often that South Korea is a laggard on an up day, but with a gain of ‘only’ 1.5%, it was up less than half as much as Japan. Hong Kong was up just under 1% while China’s Shanghai Composite fell 0.6%. Japanese PM Takaichi plans to hold snap elections next month to solidify her party’s position in parliament, but outside of that, it was a relatively quiet session for news.
In Europe, stocks are modestly lower across the board, with the STOXX 600 down 0.2%. France is leading the way lower but is still down less than 0.5%, while Germany hangs on to the flatline.
While the banks are the focus of the market’s attention this morning, the standout sector for the last few days has been Consumer Staples, even as the S&P 500 has rallied to new highs. As shown in the chart below, Consumer Staples rallied 1.42% yesterday, which was nearly twice the gain of the next two closest sectors – Industrials and Materials.
Yesterday’s rally for the sector was the third straight day that it has rallied more than 1% in a single session. The chart below shows prior streaks of 1%+ for the SPDR Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP), and while there have been plenty of other periods where the ETF rallied at least 1% for three straight sessions, the only streaks that were longer occurred in March and June 2009, coming out of the Financial Crisis lows.
What makes the current streak unique, though, is that all three days of gains have occurred on days when the S&P 500 didn’t rally 1%+. It’s one thing to rally 1% when the broader market is also up at least 1%, but to rally that much when the market isn’t up that much is much more significant. As the red bars in the chart illustrate, the only other times that XLP rallied 1%+ for three days in a row when the S&P 500 wasn’t up 1%+ on any of those three days was back in early 2000, right around and after the dot-com peak. Gulp.
Jan 12, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Maintain a firm grasp of the obvious at all times.” – Jeff Bezos
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As of early Sunday afternoon, it looked as though the news surrounding the anti-regime protests in Iran or the President’s call for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10% would be the major news catalysts for trading to kick off the week. Then, last night, news broke that the Department of Justice had opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell related to the $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. Powell responded that the investigation was “a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.” He went on to add that this investigation will determine “whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”
The President (as you would expect) denied any involvement in the investigation, and while it obviously looks political, the reality is that, provided he did nothing wrong, which we have no reason to believe he did, Powell should have nothing to worry about. The bigger question, in our mind, is who in their right mind would ever want Powell’s job? If I’m one of the Kevins, or any of the other people that prediction markets have as succeeding Powell, I’d be cheering every time my odds went down!
S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% leading up to the opening bell, while the Nasdaq is down 0.75%. Treasury yields are slightly higher, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.19%, while the dollar is lower. Crude oil is fractionally lower while gold is surging more than 2.5%. All these moves suggest a possible return of the ‘sell America’ trade; at this point, the moves are much too modest to suggest that it is a real concern.
Despite the weakness in US futures, Asian stocks kicked off the week on a positive note. While Japan was closed for a holiday, both onshore and offshore Chinese stocks were up over 1% while South Korea rallied 0.8%. India and Australia were also higher by about 0.5%. South Korea export data showed that while overall exports in the first ten days of January were down 2.3% y/y, chip exports increased over 45%!
In Europe, equities have started the week in a more muted fashion than Asia. The STOXX 600 is slightly lower, while German stocks buck the trend with a gain of 0.5%. There hasn’t been a lot of news specific to the continent this morning, but Sentix Investor Confidence for January did come in less weak than expected.
Before the Powell headlines broke yesterday, news earlier in the weekend about the President calling for a one-year cap of 10% on credit card interest rates looked like it would be the biggest news story heading into the new week. While the President can’t directly force the credit card issuers to cap interest rates, he can make life difficult for them through the bully pulpit of his Truth Social account and the various regulatory agencies that the issuers fall under the purview of.
In response to the President’s comments over the weekend, American Express (AXP) and Capital One (COF), two of the biggest pure-play credit card issuers, are trading sharply lower. AXP is down over 4% while COF is down twice that, with a loss of over 8%. The Financial sector and banks, in general, are also weak today, but nowhere nearly as much as AXP or COF. The weakness in both stocks comes after they finished last week right near 52-week highs. Looking at the price charts of both stocks, though, you can see that they closed near their lows of the day last Friday (top two charts) while the S&P 500 finished the week right near its highs of the day.
The intraday performance of all three shows the divergence even more clearly. As the S&P 500 rallied intraday, both AXP and COF drifted lower all day. It’s hard to look at this chart and not think that someone knew something.
Jan 9, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“When the President does it, that means that it is not illegal.” – Richard Nixon
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Asian stocks finished the week on a positive note, and, in most cases, extended their gains for the week. Japan was up 1.6% to finish the week up 3.2%, while China was up even more as its 0.9% rally took the weekly gain to 3.8%. The real action, though, was in South Korea, where the KOSPI rallied 0.8% to finish the week up 6.4%. It’s now up an incredible 8.8% YTD and has traded higher on all six trading days this year. For some perspective on the KOSPI’s gain, it’s now up more YTD than its median annual performance!
Like Asia, European stocks are higher to close out the week, finishing an already positive week on a good note. The STOXX 600 is up 0.6% and nearly 2% on the week, while Germany is on pace to finish the week up 2.8%. Spain is the only major European country lower on the day (-0.4%), and it’s also the biggest laggard for the week. That underperformance, though, comes after it was the best-performing major country in the region last year. This morning’s strength in Germany comes after industrial production in the country unexpectedly grew 0.8% versus expectations for a decline of 0.6%.
In the US, equity futures are on hold with very modest gains ahead of a busy slate of economic data coming at 8:30 with non-farm payrolls, building permits, and housing starts. Then, at 10 AM, we’ll get an update on sentiment from UMich. We’ll also be on the lookout later today for a possible SCOTUS decision related to the Trump tariffs. The consensus view is that they will be struck down in some form, but echoing the sentiment of Richard Nixon, President Trump hopes that since he did it, the court will find the tariffs to be legal.
Today is a fun day when it comes to our Trend Analyzer tool, as the YTD performance numbers match the 5-day performance numbers. Interestingly enough, though, since most US indices closed out last year right near their 50-DMAs, the spreads are also very similar to the performance numbers! As things stand after the first full-week of trading, every major index ETF is up YTD, and all but two are overbought. The only outliers are the S&P 500 (OEF) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). At least in the early going, 2026 isn’t the year of the Megacaps. Small caps have been the leaders early on in the year as the Russell 2000 is already up close to 5%.
Outside of the US, the ten best country ETFs are listed in the table below. As mentioned above, South Korea has been a standout performer this year, and the MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is already up close to 10% YTD. Not surprisingly, the strong gains to start the year have put the ETF into extreme overbought territory, along with Turkey (TUR), Israel (EIS), and the Philippines (EPHE).
Shifting focus back to the US, this year’s rally so far has been led by commodities as Materials (XLB) and Energy (XLE) have both already rallied over 4%, followed by Industrials (XLI) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) with gains of over 2.5%. On the downside, Utilities (XLU) have been a major laggard. After a 1.6% YTD decline, it’s the only oversold sector in the S&P 500, and one of just three sectors – Technology (XLK) and Real Estate (XLRE_ being the other two- below its 50-DMA.
