Jan 27, 2026
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“We’re all mad here.” – Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Stocks are poised to build on yesterday’s rally with S&P 500 futures up 0.25% while the Nasdaq gains 0.60%. Treasury yields are slightly higher as the 10-year yield sits just under 4.23% while the dollar is weaker. Crude oil is little changed at $60 per barrel, while natural gas is giving back some of the massive gains of last week with a drop of over 6%. Precious metals are also lower after their surges to start the week, and Bitcoin is slightly higher.
On the data front, we’ll get Case Shiller numbers at 9 AM, and then the Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence at 10 AM. After those reports, all eyes will shift to tomorrow’s FOMC announcement, although there’s already widespread agreement that rates will be left unchanged, and the upcoming mega cap earnings.
Following last night’s announcement that the U.S. government proposed a much lower-than-expected payment increase of just 0.09% for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027, coupled with a tepid revenue outlook for the year ahead, shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and many of its peer stocks are down sharply in pre-market trading. For just UNH alone, its impact on the Dow Jones Industrials will be a decline of 350 points, so without that, the Dow would be higher.
Looking at a one-year chart of UNH shows that, based on where the stock is trading in the pre-market, it is on track to test support at the low end of its current six-month range, and a break of that level would put the lows from the summer back into play.
Going back to 1990, today’s downside gap will be the 12th time that UNH has gapped down more than 10%, and the frequency of those downside moves has really increased in pace over the last year. From late 2008 through the end of 2024, there was only one occurrence (during Covid on 3/16/20), but today’s decline will be the fifth in the last year alone!
The scatter chart below compares UNH’s daily opening gaps with its intraday performance from the open to close. The shaded area highlights each time the stock gapped down more than 10%, and following most of those opening declines, dip buyers weren’t quick to step in during the trading day, and in many cases, the stock added significantly to those opening declines.
Trivia Time. We wanted to close today with a little bit of trivia, and this one comes partially from Yahoo! Sports. If Drake Maye wins the Super Bowl this year, the University of North Carolina would be just the sixth school to produce a U.S. president and a Super Bowl-winning QB. What were the other five?
And as a bonus question, 36 different head coaches have won a Super Bowl title. What college/university has produced the most winning head coaches? Check back tomorrow for an answer, or feel free to respond with your guess. No cheating!
Jan 26, 2026
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“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” – Wayne Gretzky
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As much of the country digs and/or scrapes out from the snow and ice over the weekend, it’s a very lackluster morning for US equity futures. The S&P 500 looks to open 6 bps lower, while the Nasdaq is down slightly more at 19 bps. It’s worth noting, though, that both indices are well off their overnight lows. Treasury yields have a downward bias, with the 10-year yield trading down to 4.22%. Crude oil is slightly lower at just under $61 per barrel, but natural gas is surging more than 10% as it has nearly doubled in price over the last ten days as the US continues to fall into the grip of a severe cold snap. Everything is hot in the metals space, though, as gold now trades above $5,000 per ounce, while silver rallies 8% and platinum gains another 4%. Crypto continues to sit this rally out, though. While it’s higher this morning, those gains follow weakness over the weekend.
Although the Hang Seng managed a slight gain, most other Asian benchmarks were lower to start the week, although Australia and India were closed for a holiday. The Nikkei declined 1.8%, and even South Korea declined 0.8%. The declines in Japanese stocks came as the Yen followed through from Friday’s rally and rallied another 1% on speculation of a possible intervention on the horizon to halt the long-term slide in the currency (more on that below). Chinese stocks were only down fractionally, but there were some reports of possible disagreements between President Xi and one of his top generals, resulting in the removal of the general and other military members.
There’s not a lot going on in European markets as the STOXX 600 is basically unchanged, but most major individual indices are slightly higher.
On the US calendar, it’s a light day with Durable Goods at 8:30, and there’s no Fedspeak as the Federal Reserve is in its blackout period ahead of Wednesday’s meeting.
The rally in the yen on Friday took the dollar cross below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early October, and today’s rally has extended those gains to take the currency to its best levels versus the dollar since early November.
From a longer-term perspective, the rally in the yen has occurred at what is turning into a significant support/resistance level. In more recent history, levels around 160 have acted as support for the yen, and that level also coincides with a peak in the cross (low in the yen) from early 1990. And if you want to get creative, you could even make out what looks like an inverse head and shoulders.
We’ve seen a lot of huge moves in commodities over the last several months, and natural gas has started to get into the act over the last two weeks. Ten calendar days ago, on 1/16, natural gas closed at 3.10 MMBtu. This morning, prices are nearly twice as high, and earlier in the morning, they were double the level of the 1/16 close! Looking at the chart of natural gas and its history in terms of how the commodity has performed following prior short-term spikes, buying natural gas today feels a lot like skating to where the puck is rather than where it’s going. And happy 65th birthday to Wayne Gretzky!
Jan 23, 2026
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“Our conviction in the essential role of CPUs in the AI era continues to grow” – Lip-Bu Tan, Intel (INTC)
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Wait. Isn’t the market up so far this year? For years, investors became conditioned to think that if the market rallies, software stocks will lead the gains. It was nearly 15 years ago, but Marc Andreeson’s famous article titled “Why Software Is Eating the World” reflected a theme that dominated the market for years – it was software’s market, and everyone else was just on the sidelines watching. Based on the last several months of trading, it appears as though the market is seriously questioning whether software has had its fill.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) used to be a guaranteed way for traders and investors to generate alpha, but so far this year, the ETF is down over 5%, and it has pulled back about 20% from its record high in September to levels it hasn’t traded at since late April.
We covered software in yesterday’s Chart of the Day, and we’ll expand on that analysis below. Looking at the software ETF’s ten largest holdings and their performance through Thursday’s close, they’re all down YTD, all down over the last week, all below their 50-day moving averages, and all at oversold levels. Alpha? How about anti-alpha?
Jan 22, 2026
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“I’d say momentum is building around the world. So, ex-US has more momentum, healthy demand, lower vacancies.” – Chris Caton, Prologis
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After yesterday’s turnaround Tuesday on a Wednesday, we’re seeing a healthy amount of follow-through in futures this morning with the S&P 500 indicated to open 0.6% higher while the Nasdaq is up close to 1%. Investors continue to breathe a sigh of relief as an amicable agreement between the US and Europe over Greenland appears to have been reached. Realistically, though, there was never a chance of an armed conflict in the first place. Concerns over Greenland also showed up in the latest sentiment survey from AAII, where bullish sentiment declined sharply to 43.2% from 49.5%. The events of the last few days illustrate once again that investing based on front-page headlines is one of the worst investment strategies we can think of. If you’re going to do that, just save yourself the time and give your money away.
Asian stocks had a positive session following through on the rally in the US yesterday. The Nikkei rallied 1.7%, but no other major benchmark managed to gain more than 1%. The Kospi came close with a gain of 0.9%, and that was enough to close at another record high for the South Korean benchmark. In Australia, a stronger-than-expected unemployment report raised the odds of a rate hike next month. While economists expected the jobless rate to tick up to 4.4%, it dropped two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.1%.
European stocks are also rallying in their morning session as the STOXX 600 rallies almost 1%, and interest rates ease on what is a generally quiet session data-wise, outside of the steady stream of geo-political headlines coming out of Davos.
In terms of US data, it’s a busy morning with a slug of data at 8:30 and another round at 10. The 8:30 data was mostly better than expected with GDP coming in at 4.4% versus forecasts for 4.3%. Personal Consumption and the GDP Price Index were in line with estimates, and jobless claims were lower than expected. At 10 AM, we’ll get Personal Income and Spending and PCE.
For years now, when you hear the phrase “tale of two markets,” you’ve been conditioned to think of small caps underperforming while large caps lead. You think that, because it’s usually what has happened. So far this year, the phrase a tale of two markets has meant the opposite. As shown in the snapshot from our Trend Analyzer below, small-cap indices are leading with YTD gains of over 5%, while mega-cap and large-cap indices are either in the red or barely hanging on to gains. The S&P 100 ETF (OEF), which essentially tracks the 100 largest stocks in the S&P 500, is down over 1% YTD after falling over 2% in the last week alone!
Looking at one-year price charts of the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 shows the disparity. The Russell 2000 closed at an all-time high yesterday and remains in a solid uptrend, but the S&P 500 is trading at the same levels it was at three months ago, barely hanging on to its 50-DMA after breaking a very short-term uptrend earlier in the week.
One misnomer about the recent outperformance of small-cap stocks is that it has been solely a 2026 phenomenon. Looking at the relative strength of the S&P 500 versus the Russell 2000 since the bull market started in October 2022 shows a different picture. While large caps started a new leg of underperformance with the turn of the calendar, their relative performance peaked back in April. From that peak through mid-summer, the two indices performed in line with each other for about three months, but ever since early August, large caps have steadily underperformed. If you’re just hopping on the small-cap/broadening bandwagon, where have you been for the last five months?
Jan 21, 2026
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“A country, a style or an epoch are interesting only for the idea behind them.” – Christian Dior
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The week started on a down note, and as we approach the opening bell for the second trading day of the week, futures aren’t indicating anything in the way of a turnaround, as a previously modestly higher picture has turned red. Treasury yields are basically flat, while crude oil is modestly higher. Investors continue to pile into gold, though, as futures are up another 2%+. Unlike other days when gold rallies, though, other precious metals are seeing much more modest gains. Bitcoin is also lower once again and firmly back below $90K.
Outside of the US, Asian markets were mixed. The Nikkei was down 0.4%, but Hong Kong, China, and South Korea bucked the trend with modest gains. In Europe, the picture is much more uniform as major equity markets are down across the board. The STOXX 600 is down 0.6% with Germany leading the way lower.
For US markets this morning, we’ll get Leading Indicators, Construction Spending, and Pending Home Sales at 10 AM, but the main focus will be on Davos, where President Trump is scheduled to speak right about now.
Yesterday was an interesting day in markets as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell over 2% while long-term Treasuries, as proxied by the ETF TLT, also declined by over 1%. On their own, the weakness in both asset classes was hardly unprecedented. Since the start of 2005, there have been 212 other days when SPY fell more than 2%. For TLT, declines like yesterday are even more common, with 627 other one-day drops of at least 1%.
What made yesterday’s drops in both ETFs more notable was that they occurred in tandem with each other. Since the start of 2005, there have only been eighteen other days when SPY fell over 2%, and TLT dropped by more than 1% on the same day. The chart below shows the performance of SPY since the start of 2005, and the red dots indicate each of those other occurrences. There were multiple occurrences near the lows of the Financial Crisis in late 2008/early 2009. From mid-2009 up until the onset of Covid, there were only two other occurrences, but in the post-Covid era, the frequency of occurrences has been much more common as higher inflation has acted as a secular headwind for bonds and a tailwind for gold.
As uncommon as it is for the S&P 500 to drop at least 2% and long-term treasuries (TLT) to fall over 1% on the same day, what makes yesterday even more of an outlier is that Gold also surged more than 2%.
A 2%+ rally in Gold, on its own, isn’t all that uncommon. Yesterday was the 183rd occurrence since the start of 2005 and the 17th in just the last year, but this type of rally practically never happens on a day when the S&P 500 falls over 2% and long-term treasuries fall more than 1%. Since the start of 2005, it’s only happened five other times!
Following the President’s rhetoric towards Europe, and Greenland specifically, over the weekend, concerns over a pickup in the sell America trade started to resurface again yesterday, and the moves in US stocks, bonds, and gold yesterday could easily fit into that narrative. If global investors were looking to “sell America,” this is exactly the type of price action you would expect to see. But if investors were selling America, what were they buying?
Accounting for the losses on Monday when US markets were closed, there wasn’t a lot of buying in global stocks. Europe’s STOXX 600 was down about 2% from Friday’s close through Tuesday, and the Nikkei was down just as much. There wasn’t a lot of buying to be found in international bonds either, as yields in Europe also moved higher, and JGB yields surged to multi-decade highs.
For now, it probably makes more sense to write off yesterday’s moves as a one-off and potentially traders just trying to front-run any potential sell-America trade, but investors should keep a close eye on how the markets react in the days ahead. What makes yesterday’s drops in stocks and bonds while gold rallied stand out even more though, was in where it occurred in the market cycle. As shown in the chart below, of the five other times when SPY fell over 2%, TLT fell more than 1%, and GLD rallied at least 2%, three occurred deep into the Financial Crisis, and the other two occurred right near the lows of the tariff-tantrum. Yesterday’s occurrence came just after the S&P 500 closed the prior session within 1% of an all-time high.
Jan 20, 2026
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“Remember, your mind is like a parachute: If it isn’t open, it doesn’t work. So keep an open mind!” – Buzz Aldrin
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If this is the price we pay for a three-day weekend, maybe we should have kept the market open. It’s looking like a terrible Tuesday for US equities as the S&P 500 is poised to open down 1.4% while the Nasdaq is indicated 1.7% lower. Over the weekend, President Trump escalated his rhetoric towards Greenland and threatened tariffs on European allies if a deal isn’t reached. Today also marks the first anniversary of Trump’s second inauguration, and it’s been eventful to say the least.
Equity indices in Asia were weak, given the declines in US equity futures and the global trade tensions. The Nikkei was down over 1%, but India was the only other country down more than 1%. South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.4%. Yes, you read that correctly- South Korean stocks had a daily decline for the first time in 2026. The more concerning aspect of the weakness in Asia, though, is in the bond markets where JGB yields are surging to multi-decade highs in their biggest one-day moves since the Liberation Day turmoil last April.
European stocks are much weaker this morning, and in early trading, the STOXX 600 is down 1.3%. Spain is leading the declines with a drop of 1.7%, followed by Germany (-1.6%), and Italy (-1.5%). The weakness this morning stems from President Trump’s announcement over the weekend that he would put tariffs of 10% on the imports of eight European countries beginning on 2/1, which will increase to 25% on 6/1, if no deal is reached on Greenland. Making matters worse are reports that the President will put 200% tariffs on imports of French wine if French President Macron refuses to join the Gaza Board of Peace.
Whenever we see large declines like the market is poised for this morning, it always helps to put the move in perspective. The chart below shows SPY’s performance during the current bull market, and the red dots indicate every other time that SPY gapped down at least 1%. While today’s occurrence is only the third in the last eight months, since October 2022, there have been 37 other occurrences, which works out to an average of once per month.
Today’s gap down in SPY comes as the market has been stuck in a holding pattern for the last several weeks. Based on pre-market trading, SPY is trading right now at the same levels it traded in back in late October.
