Feb 4, 2026
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“Wherever you come near the human race there’s layers and layers of nonsense.” – Thornton Wilder, Our Town
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street yesterday to discuss markets and precious metals. To view part of the segment, click on the image below.
Futures are modestly higher after investors look to pick up the pieces of yesterday’s rout in certain areas of the market. The S&P 500 is indicated to open 0.20% higher, while the Nasdaq is basically unchanged. AMD is the big loser this morning with a decline of 9% after the company reported better-than-expected earnings but raised sales guidance by less than some analysts had expected.
Outside of equities, treasury yields are little changed, and energy-related commodities are fractionally higher. Precious metals have been livelier in the early going as gold rallies back above $5,000, and silver pushes towards $90 with a gain of nearly 8%. The strength in those assets is once again not translating to the crypto space as Bitcoin is flat, and other secondary coins trade lower.
On the economic calendar today, we got ADP at 8:15, which showed positive job creation but at half the pace economists had expected (22K vs 45K). The ISM Services report hits the tape at 10 AM, and following Monday’s big surge in the manufacturing sector, the market will be looking to see how broad the rebound is. There’s another busy batch of earnings after the close, but Alphabet’s (GOOGL) report will likely have the largest market impact.
Despite the weakness in the US yesterday, Asian stocks mostly rallied overnight. The Nikkei was down 0.8%, but South Korea rallied more than 1.5% as PMI data for the Services sector topped expectations. In Europe, the STOXX 600 is also up over half a percent, and Germany is the only major benchmark trading lower. Unlike in Asia, where most PMIs for the services sector were better than expected, most European readings, except for France and Italy, were weaker than expected.
Yesterday was a rough day for the markets and especially technology, and with a decline of over 2%, it was easily the worst-performing sector on the day. Software stocks were especially hit hard as the iShares Expanded Software ETF (IGV) fell more than 4.5%, taking it down to levels not seen since the tariff-tantrum last April. Year-to-date, the ETF has already declined over 19%.
While tech stocks faced the brunt of the weakness, it was surprising to see that there weren’t more companies from the Technology sector on the list of worst performers yesterday. In the S&P 1500, 34 stocks fell more than 10%, and of those, 10 were from the Technology sector. Don’t get us wrong, ten is still a lot out of a universe of 34, but for a sell-off where attention was so focused on tech, other sectors weren’t immune. In the Industrials sector, you had stocks like Equifax (EFX), Transunion (TRU), and LegalZoom (LZ) all fall by double-digit percentages, while the Financials sector saw stocks like FactSet (FDS) and S&P Global (SPGI) experience major haircuts.
Remember, there are two sides to the growth of AI. In addition to the companies and sectors that will undoubtedly harness AI and benefit from it through increased productivity, there will also be those that have their entire business models upended and destroyed by AI. Apparently, it could happen faster than many investors think.
Finally, the chart below shows the sector breakdown of the 34 stocks that declined 10% or more yesterday. Tech obviously leads the list, but Industrials had eight stocks on the list, and Financials had four. In fact, the only sector not represented was Utilities.
Feb 3, 2026
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“The way we do things is to begin.” – Horace Greeley
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Make sure to check out Paul Hickey on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street today at 10 AM!
Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are slightly higher this morning, as the Dow trades slightly lower. Nasdaq futures are leading the gains following a positive earnings report from Palantir (PLTR), which has the stock trading up over 10%. Treasury yields are moving higher again as the 10-year yield sits just under 4.29%, and crude oil is slightly higher. Precious metals are really in rally mode as Gold trades up over 6% and Silver is up more than twice that in percentage terms. If you were looking for things to calm down in that space, don’t hold your breath.
The only economic report on the calendar this morning is JOLTS at 10 AM, but right before that, at 9:40, Fed Governor Bowman will be speaking at a WSJ conference. On the earnings front, some of the key companies reporting after the close will be AMD, Amgen (AMGN), and Mondelez (MDLZ)
So much for that sell-off in Asian stocks to start the week. Overnight, the Nikkei surged nearly 4% to a new all-time high. Not to be outdone, the KOSPI spiked nearly 7% briefly causing another halt to trading, after Monday’s downside halt. Both Palantir’s (PLTR) positive reaction to earnings and the US India trade deal have acted as catalysts for the gains. India’s Sensex also rose over 2.5% in the wake of the trade deal, which would cut tariffs on Indian imports to 18%, and India would agree to stop buying Russian oil. All of this news overshadowed a rate hike in Australia from the RBA, which was widely expected, but the central bank did suggest tighter policy could continue as inflation accelerates.
Yesterday, it was Europe benefiting from its lack of technology exposure, but this morning, that isn’t the case. While stocks in the region are generally positive on the session, the gains are much more muted relative to Asia. The STOXX 600 is barely holding on to gains while the UK and France are both in the red.
After two weeks of sideways trading, European stocks went into lift-off mode yesterday as the STOXX 600 surged more than 1% to a new all-time high. This morning, the European benchmark index added to those gains before pulling back modestly, although it’s still up for the day. YTD, the STOXX is already up over 4%, or more than twice the 1.9% gain for the S&P 500.
Like the Dow Jones, which has had nine months in a row of gains, the STOXX 600 has been up for seven straight months. That ranks as tied for the longest streak since May 2013 and tied for the fourth-longest on record.
Looking at individual country performances within Europe, the snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows the performance of country ETFs on the continent. Of the 12 ETFs shown, all of them are up YTD, and France is the only one underperforming the S&P 500. Most of the countries have outperformed the US by a wide margin. The Netherlands (EWN) ETF is up over 10% already this year, and seven other countries have gained at least 5%. Most of the countries are also comfortably above their respective 50-day moving averages and well into short-term overbought territory. The only exception is Germany (EWG), which is also down the most over the last week (-0.82%).
It’s also interesting to note that most of the strength in European stocks this year hasn’t been coming from major economies like Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. They’re all at or near the bottom of the performance list. Instead, it’s the less talked about countries like the Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, and Sweden leading the way.
Feb 2, 2026
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“Shut your eyes and see.” – James Joyce
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a shaky end to the week and the month for US markets on Friday, things remain somewhat unsteady as we kick off the new month. S&P 500 futures indicate a 0.3% decline at the open, while the Nasdaq is priced to open down twice as much. For both indices, current levels are well off their lows so that it could have been a lot worse.
Treasury yields are slightly lower, with the 10-year yield starting the week at 4.23%. Crude oil is sharply lower, trading down close to 5% as President Trump suggested that the Iranians are looking to come to the bargaining table. In the metals space, it’s a mixed picture with gold up about 1% while silver bounces over 6%. Copper and Platinum, meanwhile, are both lower. After moves like we saw late last week in the space, though, we would expect more wild trading in the days ahead. These types of volatility spikes have a way of lasting more than a few days before things finally settle down.
It was a negative start to the week in Asia as the Nikkei fell over 1%, while Hong Kong and China both slumped by more than 2%. The big loser, though, was South Korea, where the KOSPI plunged over 5%, and trading briefly came to a halt because of circuit breakers. The weakness in that index stemmed from a weekend story in the WSJ where Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that the company’s investment in OpenAI will not be the $100 billion previously reported, and that has raised new concerns about the vitality of the AI trade.
Today is one of those rare days, it seems, where the lack of a vibrant technology sector in Europe is a plus. The STOXX 600 is up 0.4%, and the German DAX and Spain’s IBEX 35 each rally over 0.75%. Better-than-expected manufacturing PMIs for January have also acted as a positive catalyst.
In the US today, the only economic report on the calendar is the ISM Manufacturin,g which is projected to rebound slightly from December’s reading of 47.9. Given the surprise strength in the Chicago PMI last week, though, don’t be surprised if that report comes in hot. Outside of economic data, the first major tech report of the week will be Palantir (PLTR) after the close. As we detailed in today’s Chart of the Day, growth-oriented sectors of the market have been messy lately, so PLTR’s report could have big implications for the sector.
Along with growth-oriented stocks, crypto assets have been terrible performers for the last few months, and over the weekend, Bitcoin tested 52-week lows near $75K. Prices are rebounding slightly this morning along with equity futures, but the burden of proof is firmly on the back of the bulls now as Bitcoin’s price trades near the breakeven price for all of Strategy’s (MSTR) holdings.
While it’s been a painful few months for crypto, it’s worth pointing out that this remains just a run-of-the-mill decline for Bitcoin. While it’s currently down about 39% from its all-time high, on any given day since 2016, its average drawdown from an all-time high has been over 35%.
Jan 30, 2026
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“Hi-yo, Silver! – The Lone Ranger
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Warsh it is. After months of speculation in the horse race among potential candidates, President Trump announced his boardroom decision, and the winner of “The Apprentice: Federal Reserve” is Kevin Warsh. Futures initially sold off sharply when news of the nomination first hit the tape last night; they have since recovered much of those losses. The major averages are now looking at more modest declines of 0.50% or less. It remains to be seen how Kevin Warsh will act when he’s in the Chairman’s seat, and while he may be considered as more hawkish than some of the other nominees, he’s well respected by the street. Furthermore, all worries over Fed independence over the last six months can probably be put to rest.
It was a lower session to close the week in Asia, as major country benchmarks ended the week with mixed returns. Japan finished the week down 1% while China was down less than half that. On the upside, the Hang Seng had a much better week, rallying 2.4%, but couldn’t hold a candle to South Korea, which rallied 4.7%. Japanese yields pulled in a bit after Tokyo CPI decelerated from 2.0% to 1.5% y/y.
In Europe, it’s a much more positive tone this morning as the STOXX 600 is up nearly 1% with Spain’s 1.8% rally leading the way, although no major benchmark is up less than 0.5%. Banks are seeing some of the largest gains, but the rally has been broad-based with Energy and Materials being the only sectors in the red, while advancers outpace decliners at a 5-2 rate. In economic data, Eurozone GDP rose more than expected 0.3% while CPI in Spain declined more than expected (-0.4% m/m).
The only economic data on the calendar today in the US is PPI at 8:30 and Chicago PMI at 9:45, but the main area of focus will be the President’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Powell. PPI came in much higher than expected on both a headline (0.7% vs 0.3%) and core level (0.5% vs 0.2%), so that has pushed futures down a bit again.
It seems fitting that on the anniversary of the Lone Ranger radio debut in 1933, we’re getting some historic moves in silver over the last 24 hours. Let’s start with the Silver ETF (SLV). In yesterday’s session, the ETF traded as high as $109.83 before cratering to $96.74 and then settling at $105.57. From its intraday high to its intraday low, though, SLV traded in a 13.5% range which was the second largest intraday range in the ETF’s history, trailing only the “marathon” 26.2% intraday range on 10/10/08 during the thick of the financial crisis.
As if yesterday’s session wasn’t enough volatility for you, this morning, the SLV ETF is on pace to gap down 11.1%, which would be just the second time in its history that it opened down more than 10%. The only larger downside gap was a 13.6% decline on 3/16/20 during the heart of the Covid crash. In terms of yesterday’s range and today’s downside gap, recent activity in SLV is right up there with levels of volatility we saw during major market crises. What’s the issue this time around? The really amazing part about today’s downside gap in SLV, though, is that if current levels hold through the end of the day, it will still be up on the week!
Not to be left out of the volatility party, gold is also poised for a rough start today. The Gold ETF (GLD) is on pace to gap down 5.1%, which would also be the second-largest downside gap in its 20+ year trading history. The only larger downside gap was on Tax Day in 2013, when GLD gapped down 5.5%. Like SLV, though, if current levels hold through the end of the trading day, GLD would also finish the week with a gain!
Jan 29, 2026
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“You can fool some of the people some of the time — and that’s enough to make a decent living.” – W.C. Fields
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It was only a 0.01% decline, but the S&P 500’s drop yesterday ended a streak of five straight gains. The Nasdaq managed to finish up 0.17%, extending its winning streak to six. This morning, both indices are trading higher, so for the Nasdaq will today be lucky number seven? While Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) are doing their part to extend the Nasdaq’s streak, Microsoft (MSFT) is trading the other way after weak margin guidance has that hyperscaler trading down a not so lucky 7% this morning.
Outside of treasuries, the 10-year US Treasury yield is basically unchanged at 4.25%, while the dollar is little changed after a volatile few days to start the week. Precious metals continue to get more precious this morning, with gold up over 4% and breaking through $5,500 per ounce. Silver is up over 5%, platinum is up nearly 5%, and copper is also at a record, trading up close to 7%. For all three metals, their year-to-date gains are leaving equities in the dust.
In Asia overnight, the Nikkei was basically unchanged, but South Korea rallied another 1% as SK Hynix reported strong Q4 results. Hong Kong, China, and India were also higher on the session, while Australia had a marginal decline.
European stocks are mostly higher this morning as the STOXX 600 gains 0.5%, but Germany has been a major outlier with a decline of nearly 1% as earnings results from SAP weigh on the DAX. A January survey of Business and Consumer sentiment came in stronger than expected, showing an unexpected increase relative to December.
With the Federal Reserve behind us, investors will now turn back to earnings and economic data. Earnings this morning have been OK, with EPS and revenue beat rates for the morning coming in at about 67%. The economic calendar is also busy with Non-Farm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and jobless claims at 8:30, followed by Factor Orders and Wholesale Inventories at 10 AM.
In yesterday’s note, we highlighted the strength in the Energy and Materials sectors and how they were leading all other sectors in terms of year-to-date returns. Through yesterday’s close, Energy and Materials were still leading the performance derby, but Energy is the only sector that remains in ‘extreme’ overbought territory (more than two standard deviations above its 50-DMA). Behind Technology, which has had a run this week, Energy is also the best-performing sector over the last five trading days.
Crude oil prices are up over 12% this year, and natural gas enjoyed a surge during the cold snap, although the contract roll has brought front-month futures prices back down to a three-handle this morning. You don’t have to look any further than these moves in the underlying commodities to understand why energy stocks are doing so well, but strength within the sector, while broad-based, hasn’t been uniform.
As shown in the snapshot below, all but one of the sector’s 20+ components are up YTD. The only outlier is Expand Energy (EXE), which is fractionally lower for the year. On the upside, the two leading stocks in the sector this year have been Schlumberger (SLB) and Baker Hughes (BKR), with gains of more than 20%. Both stocks gapped sharply higher following the early January arrest of Maduro in Venezuela and basically haven’t looked back since. Of the nine stocks in the sector up at least 10%, though, there’s been a smorgasbord of exploration companies, integrated oil companies, and even refiners.
Jan 28, 2026
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“The future doesn’t belong to the fainthearted; it belongs to the brave.” – Ronald Reagan, 1/28/1986
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are modestly higher again this morning, with the S&P 500 indicated to open up 0.25% while the Nasdaq is looking much stronger, gaining 0.85% as positive earnings reports in the Technology sector drive the sector’s gains. Investors are selling treasuries as the 10-year yield pushes 4.25%.
Gold is surging again today after yesterday’s comments by the President regarding the dollar, and the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) has already rallied at least 1% for six straight days! Silver is also strong this morning, and the Silver ETF (SLV) has rallied at least 3% for four straight days! Investors are in such a ‘buy anything mode’ that even Bitcoin is rallying more than 1%, taking it back above $90K.
In Asia overnight, most major indices were higher. Hong Kong led the way with a gain of more than 2.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi tacked on 1.7%. A 40-year JGB auction in Japan was met with strong demand as the bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.76, which was the strongest since last March. As we said, they’re buying everything this morning!
Well, maybe investors aren’t buying everything. In Europe, stocks are lower across the board. The STOXX 600 is down 0.5% with France, Italy, and Spain both down over 1%. Luxury stocks are weighing on stocks in the region following earnings from LVMH after the close yesterday, which we covered in last night’s Closer.
Today in the US, there’s no economic data on the calendar, but at 2 PM, the Fed will announce its latest rate decision, and the market is basically pricing in 100% odds of no change in rates. After the close, though, we’ll get earnings from Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
Merriam-Webster’s word of 2025 was slop which described the unending stream of low-quality, computer-generated content that has inundated the internet and social media feeds over the last three years. As much as AI promises to change life for the better, some of the more immediate impacts have been less than compelling. You can’t get away from it!
This is not even a month old, but if early indications are accurate, the term broadening could be a serious contender for the word of 2026. Looking at sector performance, the S&P 500 is up just under 2% YTD, but seven sectors have outperformed the index, including Energy and Materials, which are both up over 10%! Behind these two commodity-related sectors, Consumer Staples and Industrials are both up over 5%, while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Real Estate are all outperforming the index by a small degree.
On the right side of the S&P 500, Technology sticks out like a sore thumb with its gain of less than 1%. Along with Technology, Utilities, and Health Care are also up YTD but still underperforming, while Financials, which started the year off hitting all-time highs, is the only sector in the red for the year.
With the market broadening, we found it notable that, along with the S&P 500 yesterday, four sectors also closed at 52-week highs yesterday. Even many of the sectors that didn’t hit new highs yesterday aren’t far. Industrials and Consumer Discretionary are both within 2% of a 52-week high, while Utilities, Financials, and Technology are the only three sectors down more than 5%. The fact that the S&P 500 closed at a record high yesterday and its two largest sectors (Technology and Financials), which together account for nearly half of the entire index, are both down more than 5% from their highs is remarkable.
Regarding yesterday’s trivia, the five other schools to produce a Super Bowl winning QB and at least one US President are:
– Delaware: Biden/Flacco
– Miami (OH): Harrison/Big Ben
– Michigan: Ford/Brady
– Stanford: Hoover/Elway/Plunkett
– Navy: Carter/Staubach
Now to the bonus question. Of the 36 different head coaches to win a Super Bowl title, the school the college/university that has produced the most winning head coaches is Miami University of Ohio. The three Super Bowl-winning coaches who went there were Weeb Ewbank, John Harbaugh, and Sean McVay. Congratulations to everyone who got it right.
