Feb 12, 2026
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“Volatility obscures the future but does not necessarily determine the future.” – Peter Bernstein
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Bespoke’s Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange this morning to discuss AI disruption and other issues impacting the market. To view the segment, click on the image below.
US equity futures are higher across the board this morning, with gains ranging from 0.25% to 0.30%. Treasuries are also catching a bid with the 10-year yield falling 2 basis points to 4.16%. Oil prices are taking a rest and trading down fractionally, which is also the case for gold and silver. Crypto is catching a modest bid with Bitcoin prices inching up towards $68K.
In Asia, it was a mixed session. The Nikkei was down 0.02% after being closed for a holiday yesterday, but South Korean stocks were higher again as the KOSPI rallied 3.1%. Those types of moves for a major country benchmark were once considered out of the ordinary, but lately, multi-percentage point moves in the KOSPI (mostly to the upside) have become commonplace.
In Europe, stocks are trading higher across the board. The STOXX 600 is up 0.4%, and the German DAX is leading the gains with a rally of 1.3%. UK GDP for Q4 was weaker than expected, but outside of some individual earnings reports, it’s been a quiet session.
Here in the US, it’s also a quiet day for data. The main report will be jobless claims at 8:30, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10. Since it’s Thursday, the weekly individual investor sentiment survey from AAII showed that optimism towards the stock market fell for the second week in a row to 38.5%, its lowest level since Christmas. Bah humbug!
You need energy for a rocket to lift off, and boy, does the Energy sector have a lot of it! After essentially trading rangebound for the second half of 2025, the sector broke out in mid-January and has been gaining altitude ever since.
While most sectors have outperformed the S&P 500 YTD, none of them hold a candle to Energy’s gain of over 23%. Since sector data begins in 1990, this year’s gain ranks as the second-best start to a year through 2/11, trailing only the 26.5% gain to start 2022. That was a bit of a different situation, though, as the market was gearing up for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This year also now ranks as just the fourth year since 1990, that the Energy sector was up at least 10% YTD through 2/11. The others were 2021 and 2005.
As the sector’s price has gone parabolic over the last few weeks, the spread between the Energy sector’s price and 200-DMA has ballooned to one of its highest levels on record. The only times it was wider were in 2005, 2011, 2021, and 2022.
Feb 11, 2026
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“The greatest minds are capable of the greatest vices as well as of the greatest virtues.” – Rene Descartes
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Anticipation is the word of the morning, as markets waited for the delayed January jobs report. Heading into the report, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow futures were all up a modest 0.10%. The 10-year yield was down a basis point to 4.13%, and crude oil was up over 2% and back above $65 per barrel. Precious metals are back in rally mode as gold rallies 1.5%, silver surges 6%, and Platinum rises 4%. Crypto, meanwhile, is struggling as Bitcoin pulls back 3% and trades back below $67. Metals rallying, crypto falling? Looks like things are getting back to normal!
The January payrolls report just hit the tape, and it was higher across the board. Non-Farm Payrolls were twice as much as expected (130K vs 65K), while the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.3% 4.4% expected. Average hourly earnings and the average workweek were also both higher than expected. In response to the report, the 10-year yield ripped higher to just under 4.2% while equity futures added to their gains.
Japan was closed overnight, but most other major benchmarks in the region finished the session higher, with Australia rallying 1.6% while South Korea added another 1.0%. South Korea reported an 44.4% y/y increase in exports during the first ten days of February, aided by a 138% increase in chip exports. In China, January CPI came in weaker than expected, rising 0.2% versus an expected 0.3% increase.
In Europe, the STOXX 600 isn’t closed, but it’s unchanged on the session. The FTSE 100 is up nearly 1%, but every other major benchmark in the region is lower. It’s been a quiet session in terms of economic data, with Italian Industrial Production (better than expected) being the only major report on the calendar.
If I told you that software stocks had lost a third of their value over the last five months, you’d say the Nasdaq was in a deep correction, at minimum. Conversely, if I told you that the number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs was routinely at the highest levels in at least a year, you’d be asking when the Nasdaq crossed 25,000. Well, both trends outlined above have played out, but neither assumed result has played out for the Nasdaq, as both forces have essentially cancelled each other out, creating a period of stasis that has been going on for the last five months.
With the Nasdaq basically going nowhere since September, the spread between the index’s closing high and low recently dropped below 10%, and as of yesterday’s close, it was just 8.7%. That’s the first time that the five-month trading range dropped below 10% since 2019, and the narrowest range since October 2017. Back in the mid-teens, the Nasdaq’s five-month range was routinely below 10%, but since 1972, it has only occurred on less than 10% of all trading days.
Feb 10, 2026
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“We are all wrong so often that it amazes me that we can have any conviction at all over the direction of things to come.” – Jim Cramer
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After two big days of gains, investors are taking some profits this morning as futures on the major averages are all down a modest 0.2% or less. Bonds are catching a bid, though, as the 10-year yield is all the way down to 4.17% after testing 4.3% yesterday. Oil prices are modestly higher, while precious metals are modestly lower, with gold and silver each down less than 1%. When was the last time each of those moved under 1% on the same day?
In international markets, Asia was positive with Japan surging another 2%, while other major benchmarks were all up less than 0.5%. In Europe, the tone is also modestly positive, with the STOXX 600 up 0.1% while no other major benchmark is up or down more than 0.3%.
In the US today, small business sentiment unexpectedly fell in January, and at 8:30, we got the latest reports on the Employment Cost Index and Retail Sales. ECI was weaker than expected, and Retail Sales (for December) came in well below forecasts.
Through last Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 Software and Services Group was easily the worst-performing industry group in the S&P 500. With a decline of over 20% YTD, the group was down more than twice as much as the next closest group (Autos & Auto Parts). Over the last two days, Software has bounced back sharply, rallying more than 5%, but Semiconductors, which weren’t down nearly as much YTD heading into last Friday, are up by more than 8%!
Within the Software group, we wanted to look at which stocks led it to the downside and whether the rebound has been a reversal of the YTD trend or have investors become more discerning, trying to decipher the winners from the losers. The chart below shows the YTD performance of the industry group’s components through last Thursday’s close. Leading the way down was AppLovin (APP), which was down a staggering 44% through last Thursday. Along with APP, Gartner (IT), Intuit (INTU), ServiceNow (NOW), and Oracle (ORCL) were all down 30% for the year! In terms of winners, there practically weren’t any as Akamai (AKAM) was the lone stock in the group up YTD.
After sharp declines like we have seen in software stocks this year, when you see a bounce, it’s usually the biggest losers that bounce the most, while the stocks that held up the best don’t see nearly the juice. Based on that logic, you would expect the stocks mentioned above that were down 30% YTD to be up the most over the last two days, while a stock like AKAM would underperform. Looking at how the group’s stocks have performed in the last two trading days, that hasn’t exactly played out.
With gains of 22.7% and 14.7% since last Thursday’s close, APP and ORCL have been two of the best performers during the current bounce, but the other three stocks that were down over 30% have all either performed in line with or below the average performance of stocks in the group. At the other end of the spectrum, even after rallying YTD through last Thursday, AKAM still managed to rally in the last two trading days. Not only that, but stocks in the group that held up relatively well during the pullback this year have also outperformed on the way up.
The fact that we haven’t simply seen the biggest losers YTD bounce the most over the last two trading days, and vice versa, can be interpreted as a healthy sign suggesting that rather than indiscriminately going in and buying whatever is down the most, investors have been more discerning in their actions, attempting to weed out the ultimate winners and losers. Whether they end up being right is a big if, but it still strikes us as a healthy sign.
Feb 9, 2026
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“All the measures of the Government are directed to the purpose of making the rich richer and the poor poorer.” – William Henry Harrison
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey will be appearing on Investopedia’s Express Live today at 10:00 AM Eastern. You can view the segment on YouTube or LinkedIn.
Whether it’s staying up late watching the Super Bowl last night or too much excitement from Friday’s rally that took the DJIA above 50K for the first time, US equity futures are subdued to kick off the week. The S&P 500 is on pace for a decline of 0.15% at the open, while the Nasdaq is down twice as much. Down, but nothing major.
Outside of equities, yields are higher with the 10-year yield up 4 bps to just under 4.25%. Crude oil is modestly higher, erasing earlier losses, while gold has bounced back above $5K per ounce and silver rallies 4% to get back above $80 per ounce. Crypto had a respite from selling on Friday and moved back above $70,000, but the bounce hasn’t lasted long. This morning, we’re not only back below $70K but barely hanging onto $69K.
There’s not a lot on the data calendar today, but we will hear from a few Fed officials. More importantly, December Retail Sales will be released tomorrow, the January Non-Farm Payrolls report will hit the tapes on Wednesday, and then on Friday, we’ll get CPI for January.
Asian markets took the cue from Dow 50K on Friday and kept the rally going to kick off the week. The Nikkei surged almost 4%, while South Korea rallied just over 4%. Snap elections in Japan were positive for PM Takaichi, giving her party a supermajority, which should pave the way for her to implement her high-spending growth agenda.
In Europe, the tone isn’t quite as exuberant this morning, but stocks are broadly higher. The STOXX 600 is up 0.3%, and the UK is the only major benchmark facing losses. The February Investor Confidence survey from Sentix came in higher than expected as it unexpectedly moved into positive territory.
The diverging performance of small and large-cap stocks continued last week. The most overbought US index ETFs to close out the week are all generally smaller-cap and non-tech focused, while anything associated with mega-caps was down. In a week when the Dow (DIA) was up over 2% and closed at an all-time high, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 100 (OEF), and even the S&P 500 (SPY) were all lower. The Nasdaq 100’s 2% decline moves that index not only below its 50-DMA but also into oversold territory. At the other extreme, smaller and mid-cap indices, along with the Dow, are at various degrees of overbought levels.
Looking at the performance of the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP), and the Russell 2000 (IWM) ETFs over the last year shows an interesting shift. Since its peak last October, the Nasdaq 100 has been drifting lower while both the S&P 500 Equal Weight and Russell 2000 have rallied. The result is that the Russell 2000 is now outperforming the Nasdaq 100 over the last year, and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is rapidly closing the gap.
It’s been a rough three to four months for the mega-cap stocks relative to the rest of the market, but from a longer-term perspective, the recent underperformance of QQQ relative to RSP and IWM looks like much more benign as the longer-term trend remains intact. Whether that means this is just a temporary setback or that there’s much more mean reversion left in store remains to be seen, but for investors riding the mega-cap rally for the last several years are hanging on with white knuckles, hoping that, like the presidency of William Henry Harrison, this is a short stint.
Feb 6, 2026
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“I have wondered at times what the Ten Commandments would have looked like if Moses had run them through the US Congress.” – Ronald Reagan
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s been a rough week for bulls, but they’re trying to end the week on a positive note. Let’s just see if they have enough firepower to keep the market up through the trading day. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both on pace to open up by about 0.50%, even with Amazon.com (AMZN) trading down 7.5%. Even with the gains, treasury yields are down modestly, with the 10-year yield at 4.2%, so there’s still a good amount of trepidation out there.
Crude oil is also down fractionally, with WTI trading down to $63. The precious metals stocks have been surprisingly calm this morning, at least relatively speaking. Gold is up 0.7% while silver and platinum are both down about 3%. And hold onto your hats for a second, Bitcoin is trading higher! After touching $60K overnight, Bitcoin is up 5% to just above $66K.
In Asia overnight, the Nikkei traded up 0.8% and finished the week up 1.8%, but every other major index in the region finished down for the week, and except India, they were also all down on Friday. The weakness in Asia hasn’t followed through to Europe, though. The STOXX 600 is up 0.4%, which will keep it in positive territory for the week.
In the US today, the only economic reports on the calendar are Michigan Sentiment at 10 AM (who knows how they’ll be feeling this month) and then Consumer Credit at 3 PM.
It’s well established that the trillion-dollar market cap stocks no longer trade as a monolith to the upside, but unfortunately for bulls, it looks increasingly like they trade in unison to the downside. On a YTD basis, there’s plenty of dispersion in performance. Among the group’s worst performers, we’re less than a week into February, but Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Broadcom (AVGO) are all down over 10% YTD. Another two stocks – Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon.com (AMZN) are down YTD (AMZN will be down over 10% at the open this morning). On the upside, the gains aren’t nearly as large as the losses, but Wal-Mart (WMT) has managed to gain close to 14% while Alphabet (GOOGL) managed to hang on to a gain of over 5% after yesterday’s intraday bounce.
Over the last five trading days, the trillion-dollar stocks have traded more in tandem. Seven of the ten listed are down over the last week, and most are down over 5%. At the other extreme, the gainers have also moved over 5%, so it’s mostly been an either-or situation for the group, with most stocks taking the “or” path.
As mentioned above, GOOGL was on pace for a much larger decline yesterday, following its incredible boost to CapEx guidance on Wednesday. Shortly after the open, the stock was down over 8% and well below its 50-DMA, but buyers stepped in throughout the trading day, and the stock finished down less than 1% and outperformed all of the major US equity indices in the process. Yes, GOOGL was actually a positive (or less negative) contributor to yesterday’s market performance!
With GOOGL rallying throughout the day, it also extended its record streak of closes above its 50-DMA. At 184 trading days, GOOGL hasn’t traded below its 50-DMA since May 1st! Before the current streak, the prior record of closes above the 50-DMA ended at 175 trading days in September 2021.
What you’ll also notice looking at GOOGL’s price chart is how much space there is between the stock’s price and its 200-DMA. As of yesterday’s close, GOOGL was 39.1% above its 200-DMA, which is among the highest readings on record, Even more incredible is that in late November, it was more than 60% above its 200-DMA, which was right up there with the record high spread of 61.7% from way back in June 2005, less than a year after the stock’s IPO.
It’s a stunning reversal from just a year ago, when the stock languished well below its 200-DMA and investors criticized the company for “missing AI”. Headlines suggested an existential crisis. Clearly, the market has made up for lost time.
Feb 5, 2026
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“The best way to keep something bad from happening is to see it ahead of time… and you can’t see it if you refuse to face the possibility.” – William S. Burroughs
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures have been weakening all morning. As we approach the open, the S&P 500 is on pace to open down by more than 0.5% while the Nasdaq is down 0.75% as a 3% decline in shares of Alphabet (GOOGL) drags down the tech sector, even though the 50% increase in its CapEx plans should be a boost for the AI infrastructure trade.
With weaker equities, treasuries are catching a bid, and the 10-year yield is back down near 4.25%. Energy prices are significantly lower, with WTI down over 2% and below $64 per barrel. Volatility is even greater in the precious metals space as gold falls more than 1%, and silver is down over 10%. While strength in the precious metals never seems to give crypto an excuse to rally, today’s weakness has Bitcoin and Ethereum both down over 5% as the former is now below 70K.
In Asia last night, most major averages were lower on the session as the Nikkei declined 0.9% while South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 3.9%. The only index in the region to trade higher was the Hang Seng with a gain of 0.1%. There were no Asia-specific catalysts for the decline, as the weakness was more related to the overall tech sector fatigue.
European equities may not have as much exposure to tech, but they’re weaker across the board in early trading. The STOXX 600 is down 0.4% as Spanish equities lead the losses with a decline of 1.2%. Retail Sales in the Eurozone fell 0.5%, which was more than the 0.2% expected decline, and defense contractor Rheinmetall gave weak guidance.
Tuesday’s JOLTS report and Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls report have been delayed due to the shutdown, but jobless claims hit the tape at 8:30, and initial claims came in significantly higher than expected at 231K versus estimates for 210K. Continuing claims, though, were slightly lower than expected. On the earnings front, we also have another busy afternoon in store, headlined by Amazon.com (AMZN) after the close.
It’s only happened 11 times in the last 20+ years, but in the last three weeks, we’ve seen it occur twice. What is it? Yesterday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 0.48% while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rallied 0.87%. That was just the 11th time since RSP’s inception in 2003 that SPY fell more than 0.4% while RSP rallied more than 0.4% on the same day. The most recent occurrence was in mid-January, and most have been in the last five years, as the top-heavy nature of the market has intensified, making disparities like yesterday less of an anomaly.
The chart below shows each occurrence on a chart of SPY. While it happened once in 2003, every other occurrence came after the Covid crash in 2020.
In the past, these types of performance disparities between the market cap and equal weight S&P 500 ETFs have been accompanied by ominous forecasts, suggesting that if the biggest stocks in the market were under pressure they would drag down everything else. The table below shows the opposite, though. Three months after the nine prior occurrences before this year, SPY was higher eight out of nine times, and RSP was up seven out of nine times. Six and twelve months later, they were both higher every time. We’re not sure how either ETF will trade in the months ahead, but past divergences like yesterday have been anything but an ominous pattern.
With RSP outperforming SPY yesterday, you can guess that breadth was positive, and that helped to push the S&P 500’s cumulative advance/decline line to a new all-time high. Certain heavily weighted sectors of the market have been under pressure recently, but overall breadth has been very strong.
The trend of equal-weight outperforming market-cap weight this year hasn’t just been applicable at the index level. As shown below, the equal-weight version of seven different sectors are outperforming their market-cap weighted peers on a YTD basis. The biggest equal-weight outperformers have been Technology and Consumer Discretionary, while the cap-weighted versions of the Communication Services and Energy have been the biggest outperformers.
