Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/7/25

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Inspiration is a guest that does not willingly visit the lazy.” – Pyotr Tchaikovsky

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

While European markets are trading lower, equity futures in the US are higher by about 50 basis points this morning on positive trade talks with China.

As shown below, this week’s declines have yet to do much technical damage, but we’ll likely need a positive close today for the S&P to remain above its 50-day moving average.  Right now, price is sitting in between the 50-DMA (below) and the 200-DMA (above), and the next stop on the upside will be a re-taking of the 200-DMA.

Weakness in the final hours of the trading day on Fed Days has been a hallmark of Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair.  That’s actually in contrast with what we’ve seen for markets recently.  The S&P is currently flat since “Liberation Day” back on April 2nd, but as shown below, we’re only flat because of intraday strength.  Since 4/2, the S&P (SPY) has averaged an opening gap lower of 0.27% each day followed by an average gain of 0.28% from the open to the close.

Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Eli Lilly (LLY)

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Q1 2025 earnings call.

Eli Lilly (LLY) is a global pharmaceutical company focused on innovative medicines that treat some of the world’s most serious health challenges. Its portfolio spans diabetes, obesity, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience, with major therapies like Mounjaro (tirzepatide for diabetes/obesity), Zepbound (obesity), Verzenio (breast cancer), and Jaypirca (CCL – chronic lymphocytic leukemia). LLY is a leader in the incretin drug class, shaping the future of chronic disease treatment with injectable and now oral GLP-1 therapies. LLY reported 45% revenue growth driven by Mounjaro ($3.8B) and Zepbound ($2.3B), which now lead US prescriptions for diabetes and obesity. The company unveiled strong Phase III data for its oral GLP-1, orforglipron, positioning it for obesity filings by year-end. Management addressed PBM (Pharmacy Benefit Manager) access challenges after CVS dropped Zepbound in favor of Wegovy, stating they will avoid restrictive one-on-one deals. Beyond incretins, LLY advanced trials for Retatrutide (diabetes/obesity), Muvalaplin (cardovascular disease), and Olomorasib (lung and other cancers), while investing over $50B in US manufacturing since 2020. Leadership emphasized that proposed tariffs would have limited impact near-term but warned broader escalation would hurt innovation. Despite better-than-expected results, LLY shares fell 11.5% on 5/1…

Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for LLY by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Hershey (HSY)

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Hershey’s (HSY) Q1 2025 earnings call.

Hershey (HSY) is a snacking powerhouse best known for its iconic chocolate brands like Hershey’s, Reese’s, and Kit Kat, as well as a growing portfolio of salty snacks through acquisitions like SkinnyPop and Dot’s Pretzels. HSY’s Q1 call was dominated by the looming $100M-per-quarter unmitigated tariff risk tied to cocoa and Canadian retaliatory measures, with management stressing that “all the levers are on the table” for mitigation. Despite consumer pressures, chocolate elasticities held firm (price +8%, volume -4.5%), and sweets outperformed, driven by generational shifts and innovation. The company touted its upcoming Reese’s launch as potentially “the biggest innovation ever” and flagged regulatory tailwinds from ingredient bans and SNAP rule changes, though it expects minimal business impact. Price pack architecture and reformulations are central to HSY’s cost strategy amid volatile cocoa markets. The stock fell as much as 2.7% in after-hours trading following its earnings release, despite better-than-expected results, but finished the next day’s trading session flat…

Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for HSY by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Builders FirstSource (BLDR)

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Builders FirstSource’s (BLDR) Q1 2025 earnings call.

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is the largest supplier of structural building products, prefabricated components, and value-added services to the US residential construction, repair, and remodeling markets. Serving primarily professional homebuilders, contractors, and remodelers, the company operates across 42 states with more than 550 distribution and manufacturing locations. Its portfolio includes trusses, wall panels, lumber, windows, doors, and millwork, and increasingly relies on digital tools and automation. Q1 results reflected a challenging housing environment, with management citing soft single-family starts, multifamily headwinds, and $80M in deferrals due to severe weather. Despite this, productivity initiatives drove $17M in savings, and digital tools generated $153M in incremental sales, with expectations to reach $334M by year-end. The company discussed tariff-related cost uncertainty, estimating a $175–$250M annual impact, and plans to pass those costs to customers where possible. On mixed results, the stock lost 6.2% on 5/1…

Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for BLDR by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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The Triple Play Report — 5/6/25

An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance.  You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term.  We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook.  A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.

Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts.  Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 26 new stocks.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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Rubrik (RBRK) is an example of a company that recently reported an earnings triple play. Reporting after the close on 3/13, the stock rallied almost 28% the following day, stacking on top of last quarter’s 20.4% move higher on 12/6 after beating estimates on the top and bottom lines and holding guidance inline. RBRK went public on April 25, 2024 and is up roughly 95% from its IPO price.

Here’s how AI describes the company: Rubrik (RBRK) is a cybersecurity and data management company that specializes in providing cloud-based solutions for data protection, cyber resilience, and business continuity. The company’s flagship offering, Rubrik Security Cloud, is a SaaS platform designed to secure data across enterprise, cloud, and SaaS environments. It integrates features such as data backup and recovery, data threat analytics, data security posture management, and cyber recovery solutions. Built on a Zero Trust architecture, the platform aims to protect against cyber threats, including ransomware attacks, by ensuring data integrity and rapid recovery capabilities.

In its most recent earnings report to cap off its first year as a public company, RBRK delivered 39% growth in subscription ARR to $1.093 billion and record net new ARR of $90 million in Q4 alone. Customer expansion was a standout, with $100K+ ARR customers growing 29% to 2,246 and $1M+ customers growing 64%. Product differentiation played a major role in the company’s ability to expand, particularly with the full integration of DSPM (Data Security Posture Management) into Rubrik Security Cloud, which enabled large customers to protect sensitive unstructured data and accelerate GenAI deployments like Microsoft Copilot. Additionally, identity protection is emerging as a new growth pillar, with early adoption of RBRK’s orchestrated Active Directory Forest Recovery, reducing recovery time from days to under an hour. Looking ahead, management discussed sustained demand for cyber resilience, rising regulatory pressures like DORA in Europe, and its partnership with Microsoft as key tailwinds.

Looking at the snapshot below from our Earnings Explorer, Rubrik (RBRK) may be a newly public company, but earnings results have been off to a solid start against analyst estimates. The company has already achieved two triple plays and two of its post-earnings stock price moves have been higher than 20%.

You can read more about RBRK and the 25 other triple plays we covered in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.

Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.

Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Microsoft (MSFT)

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Microsoft’s (MSFT) Q3 2025 earnings call.

Microsoft (MSFT) is one of the world’s most influential technology companies, with offerings that span from productivity tools like Microsoft 365 to cloud infrastructure via Azure, cybersecurity, gaming (Xbox), and professional networking (LinkedIn). A leader in AI, MSFT is deeply embedded in both consumer and commercial digital ecosystems, serving over 430 million Microsoft 365 commercial seats and powering 1.4 million security customers. MSFT posted another record quarter with $70.1B in revenue (+13%) and cloud revenue surpassing $42B (+22% in constant currency), driven by accelerating demand across both AI and non-AI workloads. AI services added 16 points to Azure’s 35% constant currency growth, and MSFT warned of capacity constraints into Q4. GitHub Copilot now has 15M users, and Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption tripled YoY, with custom agent creation up 130% QoQ. Enterprise cloud migrations accelerated, and Fabric saw 80% YoY customer growth. Advertising topped $20B, helped by growth in Bing, Edge, and LinkedIn. Management emphasized improved AI capital efficiency and called out emerging supply/demand imbalances in data center infrastructure. MSFT shares were up 7.6% on 5/1 after posting better-than-expected results…

Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for MSFT by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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