Apr 14, 2026
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Goldman Sachs’ (GS) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Goldman Sachs (GS) is a leading global investment bank and financial services firm. The company posted ROE of 19.8%, driven by heavy client engagement as volatility picked up late in the quarter. Trading and financing grew as clients repositioned portfolios amid geopolitical tension, AI disruption concerns, and energy market swings. M&A activity remained highly resilient with a strong backlog, while IPOs and sponsor activity lagged but are expected to rebound. Private credit was a major focus given rising concerns around retail fund outflows and where the industry stands in a late-stage credit cycle, but Goldman pushed back on the narrative, highlighting that its exposure is heavily institutional, spreads are becoming more lender-friendly, and a downturn could actually create better deployment opportunities. The firm is leaning into financing growth (record lending, strong Asia expansion) while investing heavily in AI infrastructure to drive efficiency and long-term growth. Management flagged AI capex, regulatory easing, and fiscal stimulus as key tailwinds, but noted rising uncertainty from geopolitics and energy prices. GS recorded better-than-expected EPS and revenue, though shares fell 1.9% on 4/13…
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Apr 14, 2026
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“The clouds appeared and went away, and in a while they did not try anymore.” – John Steinbeck
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Can we make ten in a row? Along with the Dow and S&P 500, futures on the Nasdaq indicate a gain of over 0.5% at the open, and if those gains hold throughout the session, it would be the Nasdaq’s 10th day in a row of gains. Treasury yields are little changed, but at 4.299%, the 10-year yield is still well off its recent highs. Oil prices are also down over 2% to below $97 per barrel on reports Iran may pause shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to keep potential talks later this week from falling apart. As has been the case recently, signs of easing tensions have also put a bid under gold with the metal up 0.65% to $4,800 per ounce. Lastly, Bitcoin is up another 2% this morning and back above $74K to its highest level since St. Patrick’s Day. If those gains hold, it would also break the downtrend that has been in place since the highs late last year.
After a sluggish start to the week for Asian markets, the region surged overnight with the Nikkei up over 2%, while South Korea’s KOSPI rocketed 2.7% higher. Chinese stocks rallied more than 1% despite a stronger-than-expected trade surplus as imports surged 27.8% y/y compared to expectations for an increase of 11.1% while exports rose less than expected (2.5% vs 8.3%).
European stocks are also higher, although not by as much as in Asia. The STOXX 600 is up 0.6% with Germany leading the way higher (+1.0%) while the UK lags (+0.1%). One area of weakness in the region is the luxury goods sector, where weak results from LVMH drag that group lower.
The Nasdaq has now rallied over 12% since its intraday low on 3/30, and the rally ironically comes just as the index’s 50-day moving average (DMA) looks to cross down through its 200-DMA. That’s traditionally considered a bearish development, although history shows that theory is misplaced.
Since the rally off the March 30 lows, the Nasdaq hasn’t had a down day, rallying for nine straight days. That’s tied for the longest winning streak in the index since November 2021, and if today’s pre-market gains hold, it would be the index’s 34th double-digit winning streak. As shown in the chart below, these types of streaks were relatively common in the 1970s and 1980s, but their frequency has waned since 2000.
One driver of the Nasdaq’s gains has been semiconductors, which have been cooking. Since its low on 3/30, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rallied an impressive 27.6%. Making this even more impressive is that the index’s largest component – Nvidia (NVDA) – has rallied just 15% off its intraday low on 3/30. One stock in the sector stealing the show has been Intel (INTC), which, as we noted yesterday, has had its largest nine-day rally in at least 40 years. Whatever stock has been driving the SOX, the index has more than erased its declines from the Iran war and now trades at record highs.
Like the Nasdaq, yesterday’s rally took the SOX’s winning streak to nine days. That’s already tied for the longest winning streak since 2017, and if today’s pre-market gains hold, it would be just the fifth double-digit winning streak in the index’s history.
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Apr 13, 2026
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- Historically, Fedspeak’s level of hawkishness and dovishness has been correlated to forward equity returns.
- Recent Fedspeak has gotten significantly less dovish.
- Existing home sales showed a sharp decline to the lowest levels since 2023 amidst the surge in mortgage rates back to near 6.5%.
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Apr 13, 2026
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“Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances.” – Thomas Jefferson
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The week hasn’t even started yet, but it’s been volatile already as equity futures gapped down more than 1% at the open last night and then rallied right up until around 7 AM when Goldman (GS) reported. That stock is down over 4% in pre-market trading, and the S&P 500 is now set to gap down 0.63%.
The culprit behind this morning’s weakness is once again the Middle East, as President Trump’s plan to put a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has crude oil up over 7% and back above $100 per barrel. With crude oil up as much as it is, you could argue that equities should be down more based on the relationship between the two since the war started, but as earnings season kicks off, the market is starting to trade on more than just oil prices.
In Asia and Europe overnight and this morning, the overall trend is lower as major averages on both continents declined or are trading down about 1%. Gold prices are also trading down about 1%, while Bitcoin is only fractionally lower, just below $71K.
As mentioned above, futures are off the initial lows from last night, but with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on pace to gap down 0.62% at the open, it would be the third-largest downside opening gap on a Monday of the year. It would also break a streak of four straight weeks where the market gapped higher on a Monday. Even during a war, Mondays haven’t been that bad lately. For the entire year, though, SPY’s median gap on Mondays has been a decline of 0.08% with positive returns half of the time.
The weakest day of the week in terms of where the market opens has clearly been Thursday. For the entire year, the average downside gap on Thursdays has been a decline of 0.27%, and since the war started, SPY has gapped down on every Thursday. As bad as Thursdays have been at the open, Wednesdays have been solid. On the 14 Wednesdays so far in 2026, SPY has gapped higher 12 times for a median gain of 0.21%.
Where the market opens is one thing, but where it goes for the next 6.5 hours from the open to close is just as important. While Mondays have been modestly negative at the open, it has been the best day of the week from the open to close with a median gain of 0.40% and positive returns 75% of the time. With a median open-to-close gain of 0.24%, Tuesdays haven’t been as bad either. From there, though. The trading day only goes downhill from there, though. SPY’s median change from the open to close on Wednesday has been a decline of 0.14%, with positive returns barely more than a third of the time. Thursdays are even worse with a median decline of 0.23%. While Friday’s median open-to-close change has been slightly positive, since the war started, SPY has declined from the open to close on Fridays every time for a median decline of just over 1% (-1.04%).
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Apr 10, 2026
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. Hormuz remained closed this week but markets are working very hard to look past that fact given the huge surge in stocks and drop in energy futures. We go through the week’s chaotic headlines in detail, but keep our eye on other equity market drivers as well: economic data in the US and abroad, risk premiums (and return potential) offered by US stocks and bonds, the very strong performance of emerging markets, and the inflation outlook including the critical question of whether inflation expectations will remain anchored amidst this latest shock to consumer prices.
Apr 10, 2026
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“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.” – Jason Zweig
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While the S&P 500 still sits 2.8% below all-time highs, both the Dow Transports and Philadelphia Semiconductor index — two groups seen as “leading” indicators — hit new all-time highs yesterday. The charts below show the breakouts to new highs for these two closely-followed areas of the market.
US equity futures are trading slightly higher this morning as we look to close out the week with five days of gains (and extend the daily win streak to eight dating back to last Tuesday).
Below is a look at the swing we’ve seen from oversold levels last week to back above the 50-DMA for most key US index ETFs:
While we’ve seen a nice bounce, price charts for ETFs like SPY, QQQ, and IWM still have work to do to break out of the choppy action seen for many months now.
Yesterday was another painful day for the software group, which fell another 3.9% as algos look to exit or short anything at risk of AI obsolescence.
As shown below, IGV is now down 4.8% since Tuesday’s close when the US/Iran ceasefire was announced versus a gain of 3.7% for the broader Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).
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