Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/8/26 – Back to the Grind

Sep 8, 2026

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“If people knew how hard I had to work to gain my mastery, it would not seem so wonderful at all.” – Michelangelo

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

It could be worse. US equity futures are down across the board this morning as traders return to work after the long holiday weekend. Dow futures are down 0.8%, but the damage is much less in the S&P (-0.3%), while Nasdaq futures are barely lower (-0.1%) as the picture has been improving all morning. Why could it be worse? That’s because crude oil keeps rising, with WTI trading nearly 3% higher to $94 per barrel. Along with rising crude oil, energy products are also trading higher off already high levels.

Energy prices can’t keep rising without impacting the market, and at some point even a tame inflation report later this week may not mean much if crude oil prices remain in the mid-90s, approaching triple digits.

Outside of equities and energy markets, Treasury yields are little changed this morning, gold is down nearly 1%, and Bitcoin is down over 1%.

Asian equities were mostly lower overnight except for onshore Chinese stocks, which rallied modestly. The Nikkei fell 1.7% while South Korea fell a more modest 0.6%.  In economic data, Japan’s Q2 GDP report showed stronger-than-expected growth at 0.4% q/q versus forecasts for an increase of 0.3%, while South Korean GDP was right in line with expectations at 0.6%.

European equities are little changed, with the STOXX 600 down less than 0.1% and no major country’s benchmark down more than half a percent as a rate hike at its policy meeting later this week is a near certainty.

In the US today, it’s a quiet morning with NFIB Small Business Sentiment being the only report on today’s calendar. That reading for August declined more than expected, but the NFIB’s chief economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that “Uncertainty remains elevated among small business owners as they face a mixed set of challenges”. Besides that report, we’re in the heart of conference season, so be on guard for companies issuing not-so-rosy comments at some of these meetings across Wall Street this week. Looking forward, while today’s calendar is quiet, the PPI and CPI reports on Thursday and Friday will be main events.

Back in late July, as the dollar was breaking out to multi-year highs versus the Japanese yen, authorities intervened to stop the slide. The yen immediately rallied, taking the cross versus the dollar down to its 200-DMA for the first time since last fall. After the initial rally, though, the yen slowly started weakening again, leading some to question the move’s efficacy.

The last week may have been quiet for US markets, but it’s been a big move in the yen. The currency has resumed its rally versus the dollar as market participants increasingly expect the BoJ to raise rates at its meeting next week. This morning, it’s trading at its strongest levels relative to the dollar since February. As the WSJ noted this morning, “Bessent’s Yen Bet Is Paying Off—for Now”.

While the yen is rallying, the Nikkei 225 has been under some pressure. The index peaked in mid-June and has been trending lower ever since. The index briefly peaked its head above the 50-DMA for about a week in early to mid-August, but quickly lost momentum. On Monday, the Japanese benchmark made another attempt to reclaim that level, but reversed lower overnight.

The picture for European stocks looks similar. The STOXX 600 peaked in early August, but it too has been trending with weaker momentum for the last few weeks, and it now also finds itself trading below the 50-DMA.

Moving closer to home, the S&P 500 went into Labor Day weekend trading above both its 50- and 200-DMAs, but it too has been trading in a sideways range since its high on August 13th. Based on where futures are trading this morning, last week looks to have been the second-lowest high since that peak in a very tight downward-sloping range of less than 3%. Not a terrible setup, but not the momentum bulls want to see heading into the weakest month of the year.

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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/4/26 – Summer’s Last Stand

Sep 4, 2026

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Far and away the best prize that life offers is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.” – Theodore Roosevelt

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Heading into the last unofficial day of summer and the August employment report, US equity futures are trading higher, with the S&P 500 up a modest 0.10% while the Nasdaq is up 0.54%. Treasury yields are little changed, with the 10-year trading at 4.76%. That comes despite an FT story noting that the manager of Norway’s $2 trillion wealth fund proposed to cut holdings of US Treasuries in its portfolio. Crude oil is down less than 1% to just below $91, and after a monster rally yesterday that took its price up to $82K, Bitcoin is modestly lower and trading just above $81K.

Asian stocks closed out a mostly negative week on a positive note, with the Nikkei rallying 1.3% as JGBs rallied. Despite the gains, Japanese stocks still finished the week down more than 2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the South Korean Kospi both rallied more than 1.5%.

In Europe, it’s been another quiet session, with the STOXX 600 rallying 0.1%, led higher by Germany, where the DAX is up 0.3%. Retail Sales in the Eurozone unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July versus forecasts for an increase of 0.3%

The August employment report is the only release on the calendar this morning, and the consensus forecast is for an increase of 55K jobs, which would be an improvement from July’s 23K decline. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% with the average workweek remaining at 34.3 hours. Over the last three months, monthly payroll growth has averaged about 20K, so unless August’s report comes in significantly better than expected, overall momentum in the labor market remains sluggish.

As depressing as Labor Day weekend is for anyone who hates the colder weather, it’s been a good year so far for the S&P 500. Heading into Labor Day weekend, the S&P 500 is up over 12%, making this the sixth time in the last ten years that it is up by double-digit percentages heading into the unofficial end of summer. While 10%+ YTD gains heading into Labor Day aren’t all that uncommon (40% of all years since 1945), the current run of strength with gains in nine of the last ten years, including six with 10%+ advances, is impressive.

The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 during Labor Day week since 1945, and the dark blue bars indicate the years from the above chart when the S&P 500 was up at least 10% YTD. While the S&P 500 declines an average of 0.14% during all Labor Day weeks, with gains 51% of the time, in years when it was already up at least 10%, it averaged a gain of 0.35% with positive returns 63% of the time.

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