Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/1/22 – No Time to Rest

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“To bring about change, you must not be afraid to take the first step. We will fail when we fail to try.” – Rosa Parks

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members.  Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.

It was looking like a little bit of a hangover this morning as futures were modestly lower, but as yields have continued to plunge and the dollar declines, futures have been drifting higher.  It’s a busy day for economic data with Jobless Claims, PCE, Personal Income, and Personal Spending all on the docket at 8:30 and then ISM Manufacturing at 10 AM.  Outside of the US, China’s PMI was below 50 but stronger than expected.  There’s also been some additional optimism for growth prospects on reports that the country will further relax COVID restrictions.  Commodities are rallying in reaction to the news, and WTI is firmly above $81 per barrel after trading in the low $70s earlier this week.

The 8:30 data was just released and initial claims came in lower than expected while continuing claims surged above 1.6 million. Inflation data was roughly in line to slightly better than expected.  Personal Income was well above expectations (0.7% vs 0.4%) while Personal Spending came right in line with estimates (0.8%). In response to the data, futures have been ticking higher.

After August’s miserable failed attempt to break above the 200-day moving average and the double-digit percentage loss that followed, bulls had been attempting to take out that level again in the last couple of weeks.  Just when it looked as though the latest attempt was running out of steam, yesterday’s Fed-fueled rally finally got the job done.  Whether or not it holds will be the real test.
Before bulls could even start to celebrate the breakout of the 200-DMA, another resistance level looms above.  From the high in early January, you can draw a perfectly straight line connecting the dots of the subsequent lower highs we have seen this year, and yesterday’s close is the fourth point in that line.

Yesterday’s 3.1% rally was the second-best day of the year for the S&P 500 in terms of performance and the seventh-best breadth reading.  At +461 it was still a strong reading but were it not for underperformance in the Energy sector, which accounted for about a third of the 24 stocks in the index that traded lower on the day, breadth would have been even stronger.  Yesterday’s +461 reading was also the second all-or-nothing day of the week. That brings the year’s total to 45 and puts 2022 on pace for 49 all-or-nothing days.  Already 2022 ranks fourth in terms of the most all-or-nothing days for a calendar year since 1990, but anything above 48 would rank at least third behind 2008 (52) and 2011 (70). In terms of volatility, 2022 ranks right up there with the best of them.

Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals.  We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!

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Fixed Income Weekly: 11/30/22

Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class?  Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday.  We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week.  We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea.  We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.

In this week’s report, we review the income generation of the rental housing market.

Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates.  You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!

Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!

Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 11/30/22

Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world.  For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates.  The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation.  It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy.  The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management.  It’s published the last Wednesday of every month at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.

You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/30/22 – One Month to Go

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“There is nothing government can give you that it hasn’t taken from you in the first place.” – Winston Churchill

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members.  Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.

European stocks are trading higher this morning as inflation in the region came in at a weaker-than-expected 10% y/y. 10%!  If that doesn’t sum things up for 2022, we don’t know what does.  Economists were forecasting the headline number to come in at 10.4%, but with the m/m reading actually falling 0.1% in November, markets are rallying.

Futures here in the US are also higher on the positive inflation data out of Europe, but there’s still a lot of data on the calendar to contend with starting off with the November ADP Employment report which came in at a weaker-than-expected 127K (estimate 198K).  The second read of Q3 GDP, Core PCE, and Personal Consumption will all be released at 8:30, and then at 10 AM, we’ll get the October report on Pending Home Sales.   The 8:30 data was just released and came in mixed relative to expectations with GDP revised higher while PCE came in higher than expected.  Besides all the economic data, Powell’s speech at the Brookings Institution at 1:30 is likely to be the biggest market mover of the day.

While US stocks are set to end the month of November with modest gains, stocks in Hong Kong have been on a tear as the benchmark Hang Seng index rallied an astonishing 26.62% for its largest monthly gain since October 1998 and just its ninth monthly gain of 25% or more since 1970. As great as this month’s rally in Hong Kong stocks sounds, we would note that since the end of August, the index is still down nearly 7%, and YTD it’s down over 20%.  Again, these performance numbers are after you factor in November’s rally.  The S&P 500 may only be up 2% this month, but since the end of August, it is actually up fractionally, and YTD it’s not down as much as the Hang Seng.

You’ve likely heard the phrase that big market moves tend to occur during bear markets but in the case of the Hang Seng and monster moves, that hasn’t entirely been the case.  The chart below shows Hong Kong’s benchmark index going back to 1970 with red dots indicating every time the index moved 25% or more in a month.  Looking at the chart, more of these moves actually tended to occur in the later stages of bull market runs or early on in a rally.  What is unique about November’s move is that it is only the second time that the index rallied 25%+ but was still down over the trailing three months.  The only other time that occurred was in January 1975 when the Hang Seng rallied more than 28% but was still down nearly 2% over the last three months. It’s a sample size of one, but bulls wouldn’t mind if history repeated itself.

Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals.  We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!

Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.

Q3 Earnings Season Conference Call Recaps

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season.  We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management.  These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results.  We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q3 2022 and Q2 2022 earnings reporting period.

Q3 2022 Recaps:

NVIDIA Q3 2023

Walmart Q3 2023

Target Q3 2022

Disney Q4 2022

Zoetis Q3 2022

Generac Q3 2022

Uber Q3 2022

XPO Logistics Q3 2022

Apple Q4 2022

Amazon Q3 2022

Ford Q3 2022

Alphabet Q3 2022

Microsoft Q1 2023

Tesla Q3 2022

Netflix Q3 2022

Johnson & Johnson Q3 2022

UnitedHealth Q3 2022

JP Morgan Q3 2022

PepsiCo Q3 2022

Constellation Brands Q2 2023

Nike Q1 2023

Costco Q4 2022

Lennar Q3 2022

Adobe Q3 2022

Oracle — Q1 2023

DocuSign — Q2 2023
DocuSign Earnings Summary

Lululemon — Q2 2022
Lululemon (LULU) Earnings Summary

Recaps published during Q2 2022 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription:

Deere Q3 Conference Call — 8/19/22
Cisco Q4 Conference Call — 8/18/22
Target Q2 Conference Call — 8/17/22
Home Depot Q2 Conference Call — 8/16/22
Walmart Q2 Conference Call — 8/16/22
Disney Q3 Conference Call — 8/10/22
The Trade Desk Q2 Conference Call — 8/10/22
Coinbase Q2 Conference Call — 8/9/22
Tyson Foods Q3 Conference Call — 8/8/22
Alibaba Q1 Conference Call — 8/4/22
PayPal Q2 Conference Call — 8/4/22
Starbucks Q3 Conference Call — 8/4/22
Advanced Micro Devices Q2 Conference Call — 8/4/22
Caterpillar Q2 Conference Call — 8/2/22
Uber Q2 Conference Call — 8/2/22
Builders FirstSource Q2 Conference Call — 8/1/22
Apple Q3 Conference Call — 7/28/22
Amazon Q2 Conference Call — 7/28/22
Ford Q2 Conference Call — 7/27/22
Meta Platforms Q2 Conference Call — 7/27/22
Automatic Data Processing Q4 Conference Call — 7/27/22
Alphabet Q2 Conference Call — 7/26/22
Microsoft Q4 Conference Call — 7/26/22
3M Q2 Conference Call — 7/26/22
McDonald’s Q2 Conference Call — 7/26/22
Whirlpool Q2 Conference Call — 7/25/22
PPG Industries Q2 Conference Call — 7/22/22
American Express Q2 Conference Call — 7/22/22
Freeport-McMoRan Q2 Conference Call — 7/21/22
Blackstone Q2 Conference Call — 7/21/22
Tesla Q2 Conference Call — 7/20/22
Baker Hughes Q2 Conference Call — 7/20/22
Netflix Q2 Conference Call — 7/19/22
Johnson & Johnson Q2 Conference Call — 7/19/22
International Business Machines Q2 Conference Call — 7/18/22
Goldman Sachs Q2 Conference Call — 7/18/22
Citigroup Q2 Conference Call — 7/15/22
Blackrock Q2 Conference Call — 7/15/22
JP Morgan Q2 Conference Call — 7/14/22
Taiwan Semiconductor Q2 Conference Call — 7/14/22
Delta Q2 Conference Call — 7/13/22
PepsiCo Q2 Conference Call — 7/12/22
Constellation Brands Q1 Conference Call — 6/30/22
Walgreens Q3 Conference Call — 6/30/22
Nike Q4 Conference Call — 6/27/22
CarMax Q1 Conference Call — 6/24/22
FedEx Q4 Conference Call — 6/23/22
KB Home Q2 Conference Call — 6/22/22
Adobe Q2 Conference Call — 6/16/22
Kroger Q1 Conference Call — 6/16/22
Oracle Q4 Conference Call — 6/13/22
Lululemon Q1 Conference Call — 6/2/22

B.I.G. Tips – Earnings Season Recap and Triple Plays

Today we published our newest Earnings Triple Plays report.  This season there were a total of 133 earnings triple plays out of just under 2,000 individual quarterly earnings reports from US-listed stocks.

What is a triple play?  When a stock reports quarterly earnings, it registers a “triple play” when it beats analyst EPS estimates, beats analyst revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance.  We coined the term back in the mid-2000s, and you can read more about it at Investopedia.com.  We consider triple plays to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we’re constantly finding new long-term opportunities from this basket of names each quarter.  You can track the newest earnings triple plays on a daily basis at our Triple Plays page if you’re a Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional member.  To read our newest report and see some of the triple plays with intriguing charts at the moment, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium!

Earnings Reports Triple Plays