Dec 5, 2023
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the rally in high yield bonds and the new record high for German stocks (page 1). We then dive into the latest JOLTS data (pages 2 and 3) in addition to the latest supply chain data (page 4). We finish with a look into farmer sentiment (page 5).
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Dec 5, 2023
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Once, during Prohibition, I was forced to live for days on nothing but food and water.” – W.C. Fields
In case you missed it yesterday, here’s a clip to yesterday’s segment from CNBC Overtime which discussed the broadening of the market rally. CNBC Overtime – 12/4/23
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s looking like another weak start to the trading day following a weak overnight session in Asia after Moody’s lowered its outlook for China’s credit rating citing rising debt levels. Interest rates are lower as the 10-year yield is on the verge of breaking back down through 4.20%. Where it ends the day, though, will be dictated by the upcoming JOLTS and ISM Services reports at 10 AM.
90 years ago today, Utah ratified the 21st Amendment to the Constitution, and the US thereby achieved the three-fourths majority needed to officially repeal the 18th Amendment and end Prohibition on a national basis. While alcohol was technically illegal in the United States for the prior 13+ years, it was always part of the US culture and social scene, and its illegality only gave organized crime groups a wide open field to operate in. That ended with the 21st Amendment, although even with alcohol being legal on a national basis, several states maintained the Prohibition era through state temperance laws. Mississippi was a dry state for another 33 years before it finally ended Prohibition in 1966. We can only imagine what an Ole Miss tailgate would look like if Prohibition was still in place, but probably not this.
Regarding alcohol, we thought it would be a good time to check out how stocks in the sector have been faring lately. Overall, performance has been mixed. Molson Coors (TAP) has been the best performer this year, gaining more than 20%, but it’s down about 10% from its summer high. Along with TAP, other beer stocks have seen modest YTD gains this year. Even the embattled Anheuser-Bush (BUD) has seen a sharp rebound in the last month as the company’s Bud Light brand has been spending big on brand rehab inking deals with Ultimate Fighting (UFC) and NFL legends Peyton Manning and Emmitt Smith. While beer stocks have had a decent year, companies more involved in the spirits business, like Diageo (DEO) and Brown-Furman (BF/b) are both nursing hangovers.
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Dec 4, 2023
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“May the best of your today’s be the worst of your tomorrow’s” – Jay-Z
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s looking like a sluggish start to the first full week of trading for December as US equity futures are modestly lower, crude oil is lower, and bond yields are higher. The 10-year yield is up a little bit over 5 basis points (bps), but that’s only enough to take the yield back to 4.25%. The fact that crude oil prices are lower even as a US destroyer and several commercial ships came under fire in the Red Sea over the weekend shows just how heavy that market has become lately. In China, officials are advising people to refrain from large gatherings due to the reports of respiratory sickness around the country, so that’s something investors will be keeping an eye on going forward.
In a continuation of the stair-step rally that has been in place all year, bitcoin is adding another riser to the staircase as it rallies above $40K and to its highest level since April 2022.
On a y/y basis, bitcoin is now up over 140% which is impressive no matter how you look at it especially when you consider the fact that exactly a year ago, it was down over 70% on a y/y basis. Six months ago, in early June, the y/y change finally flipped back to positive levels and has remained that way ever since.
While a 140% y/y rally sounds extreme, from a longer-term perspective, bitcoin has seen some much more impressive y/y gains. Back in early 2021, bitcoin had rallied ten-fold over a trailing 12-month period, and in late 2017, the y/y change was over 2,000%. Granted, it was off a lower base, but it’s a massive move, nonetheless. What may sound even crazier, is that since the start of 2017, bitcoin’s average y/y change has been 180% or 40 percentage points more than the current y/y change.
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Dec 1, 2023
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Dec 1, 2023
Our Matrix of Economic Indicators provides a concise summary analysis of the US economy’s momentum. We combine trends across the dozens and dozens of economic indicators in various categories like manufacturing, employment, housing, the consumer, and inflation to provide a directional overview of the economy.
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Dec 1, 2023
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 28 new stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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InterDigital (IDCC) is an example of a company that reported an earnings triple play recently. As shown below, IDCC has been in an uptrend for all of 2023 and is now at a new all-time high. YTD, it’s up 102%. On 11/2, the company’s shares gained 8.6% on earnings, and since then, the stock has rallied another 20.6%.
In our database that goes back to 2003 for the company, IDCC hadn’t had a triple play before November 2023’s earnings report. As a company involved in wireless communication and video technology, the industry landscape is perpetually in evolution. What’s really exciting about IDDC lately is that it became a founding member of Avanci 5G automobile patent licensing platform as the value of 5G to automobile manufacturers increases. In Q3, Mercedes-Benz and BMW were licensed for 5G, for which the royalty rates are double the original 4G. Revenue from connected cars will continue to grow over time according to CEO Liren Chen. Second, IDCC signed a license with Lenovo to cover its HEVC video compression technology. Lastly, the company is beginning to dive into research that will bring 6G to the world. It looks like exciting times for IDCC, and exciting times for many of the companies that also reported Q3 triple plays. You can read more about IDCC and the 27 other triple plays in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
