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See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It wasn’t the money, it was just that we had them on the run and gave in. They knew it, and that’s why they wanted to come to terms.” – Al Davis
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
This weekend marks the 155th running of the Belmont Stakes, which is referred to as the “Test of the Champion” given it is the longest and most grueling of the Triple Crown legs. In many ways, the current bull market, which was confirmed yesterday with the S&P 500 closing 20% (barely) above its October 12th low, has been the Belmont Stakes of rallies off a bear market low. To find a period where it took longer for the S&P 500 to rally 20%+ off a bear market low, you have to go back to the late 1950s. The road may have been long, but it’s better than making new lows!
This morning looks like a continuation of the trend all week where there has been little news in terms of earnings and the economy, and futures are modestly lower. Enjoy the calm while it lasts, though, because next week will be another busy week for economic data and even a Fed rate decision to boot.
Megacap stocks may have taken a back seat to large caps in the last several trading days, but somebody forgot to tell Tesla (TSLA). Heading into today, the stock is riding a 10-day winning streak, and with shares up 5% in the pre-market, the streak looks likely to reach Spinal Tap levels today. TSLA has been a wild stock over the years, but in its history as a public company, the stock has only had two other double-digit winning streaks. The first was ten trading days ending in April 2020 while the second came less than a year later when the stock rallied for eleven straight trading days. A gain today would move the current streak into a tie for the longest on record.
The log chart below of TSLA since its IPO shows where each of the prior 10-day winning streaks occurred. The April 2020 streak marked the beginning of what was a massive post-COVID rally where the stock rallied an additional 191% over the next six months. Following the January 2021 streak, however, the stock went on to fall 21% over the next six months.
While TSLA is currently in the midst of one of its longest-ever winning streaks, the magnitude of the move during the last ten days has been less monumental. While 28.4% over ten trading days is nothing to push your plate away over, as recently as this past February, the stock rallied more than 48% over ten trading days, and since November 2021, there have been three other ten-day periods where the stock rallied as much or more than it has over the last ten trading days.
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the rotation in equities so far in June (page 1) followed by a dive into the latest job postings numbers from Indeed (pages 2 and 3). We then take a look at the latest Z.1 survey released by the Federal Reserve (pages 4 and 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis. The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday unless otherwise noted. There were no changes to the list this week.
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The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results. The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday. Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning each week. Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price. Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%. Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs. As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities. Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking. Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It wasn’t the money, it was just that we had them on the run and gave in. They knew it, and that’s why they wanted to come to terms.” – Al Davis
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
In a week that has been quiet on the market, economy, and policy fronts, one of the biggest stories has been the merger between the PGA and LIV Golf, and it came 57 years and just two days after what was the most important merger in US sports history when the NFL merged with the AFL forming what has gone on to become the most formidable league in all of professional sports. This week’s merger in golf hasn’t been without controversy, but with time, will we look back on this merger as anything nearly as significant?
As we said, it has been a quiet week, and this morning is no exception. The only economic reports of note today are Jobless Claims and Wholesale Inventories, and they’ll also be the last reports of the week. Jobless claims were mixed as initial claims came in at an 18-month high of 261K while continuing claims were lower than expected (1.757 mln vs 1.802 mln) falling to their lowest level since February. Equity futures are slightly higher but basically unchanged. Likewise, crude oil is up fractionally, and treasury yields are higher across the curve.
Market rotation has been a common theme this year, and throughout the first week of June, we’ve seen it again where the winners YTD have underperformed as the laggards lead. Look at the chart below which compares the YTD performance of major equity index ETFs (x-axis) to their performance in the first week of June. With its 31.2% YTD gain, no index ETF has performed better than the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), but in the first week of June, it is the only index ETF up less than 1%. Conversely, the Russell Microcap ETF (IWC) was the second worst-performing index ETF YTD, but it’s the best performed during the first week of June (+8.25%).
At the sector level, the inverse relationship hasn’t been quite as notable, but it has still been a factor. Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) are the two best-performing sector ETFs YTD with gains of over 30% each, but in the first week of June, they’ve been two of the three worst performers. Meanwhile, Energy (XLE), the worst-performing ETF this year (-6.11%), has rallied more than 7%, leading all other sectors. There have also been some exceptions, though. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is the third best-performing sector YTD and it remained near the top in the first week of June as the fifth best-performing sector. Meanwhile, Utilities (XLU), Health Care (XLV), and Consumer Staples (XLP) were among the weakest sectors YTD, and they continued to lag in the first week of June.
Whatever side of the trade you are on, the question of whether this rotation is a trend shift or not is important, but the fact that it has coincided with the start of a new month would suggest that it has been more a function of rebalancing than a real trend shift.
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a look at the implications of Canada’s rate hikes for pricing of the FOMC (page 1) followed by a dive into commodity prices (page 2) and term structure (page 3). We then look at the latest EIA data (page 4). We finish with reviews of the trade balance (page 5) and consumer credit (page 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!