The Bespoke Report: Equity Market Pros and Cons — Q1 2021

This week’s Bespoke Report is an updated version of our “Pros and Cons” edition as we proceed through Q1 2021.

With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now.  It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!

On page two of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out.  We then provide slides for each “pro” or “con” that we’ve highlighted.

To read this report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week free trial to Bespoke PremiumEnter “THINKBIG” at checkout to receive a 10% discount once the trial ends.  You won’t be disappointed! 

The Closer – End of Week Charts – 1/22/21

Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model.  We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.

The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a free trial below to see it!

See tonight’s Closer by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/22/21 – Chips Fall

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

“Complacency often afflicts precisely those who have been the most successful.” – Andrew Grove

With a gain of over 12% already, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is off to a good start in 2021.  The chips are going to be giving some of those gains back this morning, though, as stocks like Intel (INTC) and Seagate (STX) are both trading lower in reaction to earnings.  The weakness in those stocks is dragging down the entire sector, but it’s hard to get too upset about the weakness when the SOX will still be hanging on to double-digit YTD percentage gains at the open.

For the broader market, it’s also looking like a weaker open as S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are both lower while Treasury yields move lower. The main driver is weak economic data out of Europe stemming from virus restrictions in the region.  Elsewhere, the week can’t end soon enough for bitcoin which is down more than 13% from last Friday’s levels.

Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, flash Markit Manufacturing and Services data for January, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.

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While the magnitude of the gains varies, the picture for major US indices looks the same across the board.  Markets are short-term overbought.  From the S&P 100 and Nasdaq 100, which are both at extreme overbought levels following big rallies in the mega-cap stocks, all the way down the market cap spectrum, every index ETF heads into Friday with gains over the last week putting them all at least one standard deviation above its 50-DMA.  While the big picture at the index level looks pretty uniform, underneath the surface, the gains haven’t been near as uniform.  Within the S&P 500, YTD returns for individual sectors range from a gain of 11.6% for the Energy sector to a decline of 3.3% for Consumer Staples. So, depending on your level of success, stock-picking has either really helped or hurt performance so far this year.

The Bespoke 50 Top Growth Stocks — 1/21/21

Every Thursday, Bespoke publishes its “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks in the Russell 3,000.  Our “Bespoke 50” portfolio is made up of the 50 stocks that fit a proprietary growth screen that we created a number of years ago.  Since inception in early 2012, the “Bespoke 50” is up 461.3% excluding dividends, commissions, or fees.  Over the same period, the S&P 500 is up in price by 178.7%.  Always remember, though, that past performance is no guarantee of future returns.  To view our “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks, please start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/21/21 – Strong Economic Data

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

“A plan without action isn’t a plan, it’s a speech.” – T. Boone Pickens

Futures are trading higher heading into the opening bell this morning on what is still another relatively light morning for earnings data.  The economic calendar was on the busy side this morning as Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing report were all just released and they ALL came in better than expected.

Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, Korean export data, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.

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Equities had a big day yesterday with the S&P 500 up over 1% and the Nasdaq higher by close to 2%.  One notable area of weakness, though, was in semiconductors.  In a divergence you don’t see very often, despite the broader market gains, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) finished the day down marginally. This type of divergence is so uncommon in fact that you have to go all the way back to October 2007 to find the last time the SOX was down on a day when the Nasdaq was up over 1.5%.

Fixed Income Weekly: 1/20/21

Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class?  Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday.  We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week.  We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea.  We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.

In this week’s report we review collapsing global inflation.

Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates.  You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!

Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!