This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter provides an update on everything going on in markets as we kick off the new year. To read this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Delta Air Lines’ (DAL) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is one of the world’s largest airlines, serving over 200 million customers annually across more than 300 destinations in over 50 countries. Delta closed 2024 with record-breaking results, reporting a $1.6 billion pre-tax profit for Q4, up over $500 million from the prior year. Corporate and leisure travel demand surged, with January seeing two record sales days. Premium revenue grew 8% YoY, driven by loyalty programs like SkyMiles, which added over 1 million new members. International markets, particularly the Transatlantic, outperformed expectations due to US travel demand. DAL discussed partnerships with YouTube and Uber and introduced AI-powered Delta Concierge. On better-than-expected results, DAL shares were up more than 10% on Friday morning, 1/10…
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Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Constellation Brands’ (STZ) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Constellation Brands (STZ) is a premier producer of beer, wine, and spirits, known for iconic brands like Corona, Modelo, and others. In Q3 fiscal 2025, STZ discussed subdued consumer spending and elevated unemployment rates, particularly among Hispanic consumers. Despite that, the Beer Business achieved a 3.2% growth in depletions and a 3% increase in net sales. The company advanced over half of its target of 500,000 additional distribution outlets and introduced innovative pack formats, such as the 12-ounce Chelada cans. The Wine and Spirits segment faced a 14% decline in net sales due to demand headwinds and inventory de-stocking but saw growth in high-end brands like Meiomi and Kim Crawford following the divestiture of SVEDKA. STZ missed estimates on the top and bottom lines due in part to the noted consumer weakness, resulting in the stock sliding more than 16% on Friday 1/10…
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See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It’s equal can not be seen on this earth.” – Anthony Lucas
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
These words describe the image of oil soaring into the sky from beneath the clay Texas surface at the first major oil discovery in US history. It occurred 124 years ago today when Anthony Lucas and his partners struck black gold, starting the US oil industry. Lucas and company tried and failed for years to find oil underneath the Texas, but January 10th, 1901, was the day their dreams were finally realized.
Like the dog that catches the car, right after finally finding success, the question quickly became “Now what?” Once oil started flowing and launched the pipe they were drilling with 100s of feet in the air, they realized they had nowhere to put it or no way to stop it from flowing. First, they tried a 2.5-foot-high wall around the perimeter of the well, but it overflowed within 24 hours. They built a second wall at a wider circumference, but that quickly became overwhelmed too. A third wall covered 50 acres, but it wasn’t long before that was overflowing too. Talk about a good problem to have! Eventually, they got things under control and so began the modern-day US oil industry.
The chart below shows how US crude oil production started to take off after 1901. According to the Department of Energy, in 1900, the US produced 63 million barrels of crude oil annually. Within 10 years, production tripled. Another 10 years later, it more than doubled again and kept rising from there until peaking in 1970. Production was nearly cut in half from 1970 through 2008 as analysts started to fear the world was running out of oil and prices shot well into the triple-digits. Then, proving the adage, that the cure for higher prices is higher prices, the shale boom arrived, and production since then has rebounded to a historic degree. So much for running out of oil.
Even as the US oil industry exploded in the early 1900s, exports were practically non-existent until more than 100 years after Lucas’ first discovery. Beginning in the 2010s, though, exports surged like nothing ever seen before and now total a record 4+ million barrels per day.
When it comes to recent crude oil performance, prices were weak for most of the second half of 2024 after prices peaked in the high 80s during the spring. Over the next six months, WTI sank into the mid-60s where it started to stabilize. Since early December, though, prices have started to rebound with a rally this morning taking it above $75 per barrel and back above its 50-day moving average for the first time since October. While one level of resistance has been cleared, another remains at the downtrend line in the high $70s. If those levels get taken out, markets will find it increasingly difficult to prevent concerns over inflation from getting louder.
For the next couple of hours, though, December’s non-farm payrolls will be the market’s main area of focus, and the much higher-than-headline forecast has yields surging and equity futures plunging. At 4.78%, the 10-year yield is now at its highest level since November 2023.
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a recap of today’s Fedspeak and where global policy rates stand (page 1). We then dive into consumer credit figures (page 2) and bank stocks (page 3). Next, we recap the latest EIA data (page 4) and big moves in solar names (page 5) before closing out with a rundown of the latest 30 year bond reopening (page 6).
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See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“When things go wrong, don’t go with them.” – Elvis Presley
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We had the wrong kind of “turnaround Tuesday” yesterday. Equities opened positively and then sold off throughout the trading day as the better-than-expected ISM Services and higher-than-expected Prices Paid component pushed yields higher and stock prices lower. That weakness flowed into Asia overnight and Europe this morning where equities have been trading lower. The picture for today looks dicey again as yields continue to move higher. The 10-year yield is firmly above 4.7% and, in the UK, the 10-year yield has moved to its highest level since October 2008! There was just a brief respite in the selling of bonds as comments from Fed Governor Waller hit the tape where he said he supports rate cuts in 2025 provided the economy and inflation play out as expected, but it lasted less than a few minutes before yields were back near their highs of the day.
The ADP Employment report came in weaker than expected as total payrolls increased 122K versus forecasts for an increase of 136K. While weaker than expected, it was still a steady number and has helped to alleviate some of the pressure in bonds and stocks. Jobless claims also just hit the tape, and initial claims fell to 201K which was below forecasts while continuing claims came in higher than expected. Given the holidays, though, some of these claims numbers could be distorted.
Nowhere was yesterday’s negative reversal more pronounced than in Nvidia (NVDA). The stock opened at record highs and looked like it was going to breakout of its six-month trading range after Monday night’s keynote speech from CEO Jensen Huang. It quickly reversed lower throughout the session, though, and finished down by over 6% on the day and over 8% from its intraday high. As shown in the chart below, yesterday was the sixth time in the last year that NVDA hit an all-time high intraday but then sold off at least 4% during the trading day. While the first three are almost hard to notice given they occurred during steady uptrends for the stock, the last two marked short-term tops. While NVDA managed to stay above its 50-day moving average in yesterday’s decline, it closed closer to that level than any of the other prior reversals.
