Aug 17, 2026
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- Today the 30y yield topped 5.30% intraday, the highest level for the longest-term risk-free rate since 2007. That may sound ominous, but with some context the historical analogue gets even more interesting.
- While overall foreign fixed income flows have been modest over the past few years, equities have seen massive buying.
- While S&P 500 futures have the first net long positioning since March 2025, the Nasdaq 100 is t the most net short positioning since October 2020.
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Aug 17, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I generally avoid temptation unless I can’t resist it.” – Mae West
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Outside of the Dow, where futures are modestly lower, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are both higher, with the Nasdaq leading the way, looking at a gain of 0.45%. Despite no signs of tensions breaking down in the Middle East, crude oil prices are basically unchanged, and Treasury yields are slightly lower.
Asian stocks started the week mostly higher, with Japan up 0.7% while Chinese stocks rallied more than 1% despite weak economic data from both countries. South Korean markets were closed for a holiday, but the big news from that region was an action from President Trump to scale back joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises, citing ‘expenses’ and that country’s lack of material assistance with the war in Iran. It’s also an olive branch to North Korea to potentially get that country to provide less military assistance to Russia’s war with Ukraine.
In Europe, trading is much more subdued with the STOXX 600 up 0.1%, and the only country up or down more than 0.2% is Italy (+0.4%).
Earnings season is winding down, but on the economic calendar, Empire Manufacturing for August just hit the tape and doubled expectations to the upside (20.6 vs 10.0), while homebuilder sentiment, which is expected to tick down slightly from July, will hit the tape at 10 AM.
The S&P 500 eked out a fractional gain last week after breaking out to new highs in the week before. As earnings season winds down and August goes on, don’t be surprised if market activity starts to really slow down. That would probably be the best we could hope for given all the geopolitical issues simmering around the world.
The S&P 500 may have rallied to new highs last week, but the Nasdaq, which has been a long-term leader, has been lagging in the short term. While the index has broken its downtrend from the June highs, it remains more than 1.5% below that all-time high heading into the new week of trading. Besides that, the 50-day moving average has also started to slope downward, indicating the lack of upside momentum in the index.
We call semiconductors a leading indicator of the economy and the market, and the current picture isn’t particularly positive from a short-term perspective. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is in worse shape than the Nasdaq. Not only has the slope of its 50-day moving average turned lower, but the index is still trading below that level. While it broke out above its June downtrend last week, the SOX is now boxed in between that former resistance and the 50-DMA, which it failed to clear on the upside last Thursday. The one caveat, though, is that the SOX’s Q2 rally was so far divorced from reality that some cooling off was inevitable. Taken together, Q2 and Q3 still leave the index in relatively good shape.
Bitcoin used to be considered a measure of risk tolerance in the market, but with all the excitement going on in the AI space, who needs crypto? Bitcoin remains stuck in a stubborn downtrend that has been in place for a full year now. For the last couple of weeks, the downtrend line and 50-day moving average have been acting as monkey bars that Bitcoin keeps riding along from below. It’s been a disappointing year for crypto, and the only selling point it has actually lived up to is being an uncorrelated asset.
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Aug 14, 2026
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Nearly all of the major US equity indices we track have made it back to new highs as the stock market has had about as good of a first half of August as you could ask for. In this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter for subscribers, we highlight a number of data points that bulls can hang their hats on, but there are also a few readings that warrant caution.
Along with our unique market analysis, we also dive into this week’s economic data and what it means for the rest of 2026 and beyond. Did this week’s inflation data and a number of readings on the consumer change any opinions at the Fed? Is the three-headed monster of rates, oil, and the dollar causing us to worry? You’ll have to read the full report to find out! Simply start a trial to any of our membership levels to give it a read over your weekend coffee. We hope you enjoy it!
Aug 14, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“We have resolved to pave the way for a grand peace for all generations to come by enduring the unendurable and bearing the unbearable.” – Emperor Hirohito, 8/14/1945
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We’re heading into the last trading day of the week with equity markets around the globe more overbought than any other asset class. As shown in the snapshot below, the long bond ETF (TLT) is the only area that’s oversold, while oil (USO), Bitcoin (IBIT), and the dollar (UUP) are neutral.
The stock market has had about as good of a first half of August as you could ask for. The final days of July saw the major indices below their 50-DMAs and teetering on full breakdowns. A couple weeks later, small-caps (IWM), mid-caps (IJH), and large-caps (SPY) have all broken out to record highs, confirming the bull market that’s been in place since late 2022.
Of the major index ETFs across the market-cap spectrum, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is the only one that hasn’t broken out to new highs.
Even though QQQ (cap-weighted) still needs to gain a few percent to reach prior highs, the equal-weight version of the index (QQQE) just broke out to record highs yesterday. While the mega-caps have kept QQQ at bay, the average stock in the index has done better.
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Aug 13, 2026
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- The S&P 500 had less than 1% between its high and low in the five days ending Wednesday. That’s the tightest five day range since December.
- The S&P 500 has now gone over 150 days without an “all or nothing” day for breadth, the longest streak in over 25 years.
- While the percentage of stocks above 50- and 200-DMAs are at recent highs, current readings are common from a historical perspective.
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Aug 13, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Genius sees the answer before the question.” – J. Robert Oppenheimer
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After surging nearly 6% from July 29th through August 4th (last Tuesday), the S&P 500 (SPY) has flat-lined since:
As shown below, key US index ETFs remain in overbought territory even with the S&P’s sideways action:
You can see just how overbought we got at the highs last week, with the S&P’s 50-DMA spread hitting its most extreme level in the last year:
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