Jun 24, 2019
While the relationship between the performance of equities and US Treasuries has changed over time, throughout most of the bull market in equities off the March 2009 lows, positive equity performance has coincided with weaker performance in Treasuries and vice versa. This year has bucked that trend. While the S&P 500 has rallied nearly 19% on a total return basis, long-term Treasuries, as measured by the Merrill Lynch Long-Term Treasury index, have rallied just under 10% and were actually up over 10% on the year through last Thursday’s close. In our latest B.I.G. Tips report, we provided an analysis of prior years where equities and long-term treasuries both saw strong first half returns to see if there were any discernible trends for the second half. To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!
Jun 19, 2019
After becoming less inverted in seven out of the prior nine trading days heading into last weekend, it was looking as though the yield curve was working its way out of inverted territory. After Tuesday’s dovish commentary from ECB President Mario Draghi, though, traders flooded into fixed income, sending yields lower and putting additional pressure on the already inverted curve. Today, the market is undoing some of that pressure, but 10s/3s still remains inverted by 10 basis points.
What’s notable about the yield curve today is that it is now on pace to finish the day at inverted levels for 20 consecutive trading days. In our latest B.I.G. Tips report, we analyzed S&P 500 performance following periods of extended yield curve inversions to see if there was any connection to future equity market performance. To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!
Jun 14, 2019
While it may not have looked like anything special based on the weaker than expected headline reading, there actually wasn’t much not to like about May’s Retail Sales report. In addition to being slightly better than expected after stripping out Autos and Gas, April’s report was revised significantly higher.
The table below shows monthly streaks of gains or losses for each of the sectors tracked in the Retail Sales report. Here we can see how broad and consistent the strength has been in Retail Sales after taking revisions into account. Five sectors have seen m/m growth for five straight months, and no group has seen more than one straight month of decline. Bars and Restaurants are one group that has seen sales growth for five consecutive months, and while it has yet to overtake Food and Beverage Stores in terms of its total share of sales, it’s getting close.
We just published our monthly update to key trends in this month’s Retail Sales report. To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!
