Apr 8, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
The US equity market is facing big valuation headwinds from rapid shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve policy near-term and a market view that rates will be higher in the long term. With yields surging, the market has relied on ever-higher earnings estimates to stay afloat as we approach Q1 earnings. High earnings estimates make this season a unique risk for the market as the post-COVID bonanza in beats trails off. Foreign central banks are also getting in on the game as interest rates surge into positive territory in the Eurozone. We discuss French elections with the first round of voting this Sunday, as well as touching on policy in Russia and China. Global trade frictions appear to be easing, and used auto prices have started to fall, both of which offer a sunnier picture for inflation. We also look at earnings Triple Plays, credit markets, the strong dollar, the outlook for the Fed’s balance sheet, oil markets, big NASDAQ drops, equity market dividend yields, recession probabilities, and more in this week’s Bespoke Report.
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Apr 1, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
After a bounce in the second half of March that surprised just about everyone watching, the last two trading days of Q1 and the first trading day of Q2 have called into question whether or not the rally was the real thing. On the positive side, the gains that stalled out earlier this week pushed the S&P 500 back above its 50 and 200-day moving averages as well as the highs from early February forming a higher high in the process. On the negative side, the highs from February didn’t hold for long as Thursday’s waterfall decline to close out the quarter took the S&P 500 back below those levels.
Friday started off with some gains, but sellers quickly took control as equities weakened throughout the day before some stabilization into the close. While the February highs are overhead resistance again, bulls will be closely watching the major moving averages for signs of support. This week’s declines haven’t been enough yet to cause bulls to lose hope, but it won’t be a worry-free weekend either.
With the beginning of a new quarter, markets are in a bit of a limbo period as investors await what is likely to be a volatile earnings season, but there was still a lot to cover this week. There’s not enough time (or computer memory) to cover everything that transpired this week, but we tried to cover some of the most pressing macro issues. Make sure to check it all out in this week’s Bespoke Report.
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Mar 25, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
Stocks have stopped paying attention to the interest rate markets, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from continuing to plunge. Surging interest rates and a Fed willing to crush the economy to tamp inflation are being ignored by the furious rally in a stock market that believes in the admittedly very strong US economic expansion. In addition, we dive into the investing returns of different generations, with a surprising winner when it comes to long-term investing results as well as key analysis on the driver of long-term investing returns. With the supply side of the economy struggling to keep up, we look at two industries and how supply constraints are benefiting one while holding another back. We also introduce a new basket of stocks designed to find big growth opportunities in EM, review the performance of stocks over the last two years and big winners since the COVID bottom, record low jobless claims, the distribution of assets and liquid savings across the income distribution, economic hits in Europe, and more in this week’s Bespoke Report.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Mar 11, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
No way out is a phrase we’ve heard a lot lately. Whether it’s Putin’s war in Russia, the FOMC, or the market, it’s hard to picture a smooth way out for any of them in the middle of this morass. Concerns aside, life goes on and the markets will open on Monday – or at least most will. So, grab a coffee, or for this week, you may want something a little stronger, and read up on the latest trends impacting markets and the economy in this week’s Bespoke Report.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Mar 4, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
The invasion of Ukraine has sparked market volatility beyond equity markets, with historic moves in European fixed income this week alongside the biggest advance in wheat prices on record. We discuss the implications of the commodity price shock for equity markets and the Federal Reserve, which remains the elephant in the room when it comes to the outlook for stocks and the economy. We also review global economic data, the monthly jobs numbers released this morning, implications for the dollar’s rally in stocks, and more in this week’s Bespoke Report.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
