Mar 10, 2023
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members. (Log in here if you’re already a subscriber.)
Heading into this week, the consensus concern among investors was the “higher for longer” narrative that had been brewing for the past month and whether the Fed would decide to hike rates by either 25 or 50 basis points at its upcoming meeting on March 22nd. Inflation numbers that were cooling in the last quarter of 2022 perked up again in January, and US employment data (data that is being impacted by falling response rates) just won’t cooperate even though we’re seeing big increases in job cut announcements (as we’ll highlight later).
Earlier in the week, markets interpreted Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress as hawkish, causing odds for a 50-basis point hike to spike well above the odds for a 25-basis point hike at the March meeting. On Wednesday, we also got a stronger than expected ADP Employment reading and a stronger than expected JOLTS reading. Both beats kept the 50-basis point hike narrative going ahead of Friday’s all-important nonfarm payrolls number for February.
On Thursday as investors were digesting the weekly jobless claims figures and listening to President Biden’s proposed tax hikes in his new budget, we saw a dramatic drop in the regional bank corner of the market when a West Coast bank known for funding a large portion of Tech and VC start-up businesses – SVB Financial (SIVB) – saw its share price fall more than 50% in early trading. By the end of yesterday, SIVB had lost 66% of its value in one day. By this morning when shares were halted after falling another 60% in pre-market trading, the entire investment world had taken notice, and when later in the day the state of California and the FDIC announced that SVB had gone belly-up, the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report was but an afterthought. The failure of SVB (formerly Silicon Valley Bank) is the 2nd largest bank failure in US history, and it happened just like that. For the week, the US equity market was down 4.5%, and Treasury bond yields that were hitting cycle highs earlier in the week ended up seeing some of their biggest 2-day declines ever.
Continue reading this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter by starting a one-month trial, or click the image below to view our membership options page.
Mar 3, 2023
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members. (Log in here if you’re already a subscriber.)
If you’re confused, join the club. Sweat is beading up on the foreheads of investors on both sides of the bull-bear debate lately. There are enough bearish headlines out there to make anyone question why in the world they would ever want to own stocks. Meanwhile, just as it seems as though the market is about to break down, Thursday and Friday happen. Seems to us like the market is doing its job!
In honor of Dr. Seuss’ 119th birthday this week, we thought it would be fun to write a description of the stock market channeling his writing style. With a tool like ChatGPT, we figured it would be easy enough. Unfortunately, the results were lacking, so in the spirit of Napolean Bonaparte who once said, “If you want a thing done well, do it yourself,” we did just that. We’ll let you judge for yourself if it was done ‘well’! But if you’re short on time this weekend, the story will tell you all you need to know about the stock market.
View this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter by starting a one-month trial, or click the image below to view our membership options page.
Feb 24, 2023
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members. (Log in here if you’re already a subscriber.)
It was another busy data week with Friday’s personal consumption expenditures inflation data delivering another painfully high reading. Earnings also wrapped up after a busy six weeks of results. We discuss index performance in the US, Asia, and Europe, dive deep into earnings results, break down movements in the dollar, discuss shifts in interest rates, and break down all the major data releases this week in the context of the hawkish Federal Reserve.
View this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter by starting a one-month trial, or click the image below to view our membership options page.
Feb 17, 2023
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
In this week’s newsletter, we’ve updated our Equity Market Risk Gauge for the month of February, and we also take a look at market technicals, healthy earnings, crazy inflation stats, interest rate movements, and what’s on tap for the coming weeks.
To see our updated Equity Risk Gauge and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, join Bespoke Institutional and get half off for the first three months!
Feb 10, 2023
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members. (Log in here if you’re already a subscriber.)
While the market is still right in the thick of earnings season, it was a quiet week in terms of news and macro data. After the deluge of both earnings reports and economic data to kick off February, and ahead of next week’s busy slate, investors could use a break. With the vacuum of info, though, investors chose to focus on the looming inflation report next week and expectations for a big jump relative to December’s deflationary reading. Based on the surge in rates, especially at the short end of the curve, investors are bracing for a hot number.
View this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter by starting a one-month trial, or click the image below to view our membership options page.
Feb 3, 2023
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members. (Log in here if you’re already a subscriber.)
In a blockbuster week for labor market data, the FOMC slowed the pace of rate hikes further but kept trying to talk tough about the outlook for rates. Equity, foreign exchange, and credit markets had different ideas both in the US and around the world. We dive deep into quarterly data on wages and productivity, monthly jobs numbers from the blockbuster Employment Situation Report today, PMI data from around the world economy, and other tidbits from the data this week. Earnings are also underway, and we provide qualitative and quantitative highlights from earnings results on both sides of the Atlantic this week.
View this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter by starting a one-month trial, or click the image below to view our membership options page.
