Feb 24, 2023
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It was another busy data week with Friday’s personal consumption expenditures inflation data delivering another painfully high reading. Earnings also wrapped up after a busy six weeks of results. We discuss index performance in the US, Asia, and Europe, dive deep into earnings results, break down movements in the dollar, discuss shifts in interest rates, and break down all the major data releases this week in the context of the hawkish Federal Reserve.
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Feb 17, 2023
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In this week’s newsletter, we’ve updated our Equity Market Risk Gauge for the month of February, and we also take a look at market technicals, healthy earnings, crazy inflation stats, interest rate movements, and what’s on tap for the coming weeks.
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Feb 10, 2023
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While the market is still right in the thick of earnings season, it was a quiet week in terms of news and macro data. After the deluge of both earnings reports and economic data to kick off February, and ahead of next week’s busy slate, investors could use a break. With the vacuum of info, though, investors chose to focus on the looming inflation report next week and expectations for a big jump relative to December’s deflationary reading. Based on the surge in rates, especially at the short end of the curve, investors are bracing for a hot number.
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Feb 3, 2023
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In a blockbuster week for labor market data, the FOMC slowed the pace of rate hikes further but kept trying to talk tough about the outlook for rates. Equity, foreign exchange, and credit markets had different ideas both in the US and around the world. We dive deep into quarterly data on wages and productivity, monthly jobs numbers from the blockbuster Employment Situation Report today, PMI data from around the world economy, and other tidbits from the data this week. Earnings are also underway, and we provide qualitative and quantitative highlights from earnings results on both sides of the Atlantic this week.
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Jan 27, 2023
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In this week’s newsletter, we’ve updated our Equity Market Risk Gauge for the month of January, and we also take a look at market technicals, improving internals, international equity market outperformance, interest rate movements, and next week’s upcoming FOMC meeting.
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Jan 20, 2023
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Since the start of Q4 last year we’ve seen a trend shift across a range of asset classes. Interest rates, the dollar, stocks, industrial metals, natural gas, and a range of other markets are moving in the opposite direction compared to most of last year. Some of this is down to luck – specifically related to the weather – but shifts from policymakers and economic data are also playing a major role. Despite trend shifts, US stocks have still not broken out. Earnings season is under way and could be the defining factor between whether bear market downtrends prevail or a new bull trend has been established.
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