The Closer – Record Backwardation, Supply Chain Stress – 4/7/26
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- The move in Brent spot has now reached a completely unprecedented level of backwardation: more than $30 per barrel separates spot from the current front-month Brent future priced on delivery in June.
- Supply chain indicators like the NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and the Logistics Mangers’ Index highlighted rapidly rising prices and stress in March.
- Consumers anticipate gas prices to rise over 9% in the next 12 months according to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
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The Closer – Cyclicals Technically Better, Backwardation – 4/6/26
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- Some cyclical parts of the market have seen technicals improve following the past few days’ rally.
- Front-month WTI reached a new cycle high today; resulting in a record spread between front and second month prices.
- The share of mortgage loans seriously delinquent and in foreclosure reached multi-year highs in February.
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The Closer – AI Eats Trades, Mortgage Rates, Oil – 4/2/26
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- Imports of categories related to AI spend are going absolutely gangbusters with total import bill of just below $60 billion in February, up 63% in six months.
- Our Salient Price Stress Index combining impacts of mortgage rates and gas prices is up 5.9% over the past few months.
- Spot Brent trades for cargoes loaded in the near-term rose above their 2008 nominal peak to close at a record $141.37/barrel.
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