Nov 21, 2022
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin tonight with a look at the dynamics of quant factors over the past year (page 1) followed by a look into the latest earnings as crypto tests it post-FTX lows (page 2). We follow up with a look at volumes during Thanksgiving week (page 3). We then take a look at the two Treasury auctions held today (page 4) before finishing with a look at the multiple records in the latest positioning data (pages 5 – 7).
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Nov 21, 2022
The S&P 500 is starting out the holiday-shortened week lower and compared to other years post-WWII, that is not without precedent as the index has often fallen on the Monday of Thanksgiving week. Historically, on the Monday of Thanksgiving week, the S&P 500 has tended to trade slightly lower with a 1 basis point drop. However, in years like 2022 when the index entered the week down at least 10% year to date (12 years), performance has been more positive with a 37 bps average gain, though returns have only been positive half the time.
Performance on Tuesday of Thanksgiving week has tended to be even more mixed with an average gain of 5 bps across all years and a decline of 27 bps in years when the S&P 500 was down 10% YTD heading into Thanksgiving week.
While performance is mixed on Mondays and Tuesdays of Thanksgiving week, the two days surrounding the holiday have tended to see far stronger returns. As shown below, the average gain for all years on Wednesday has been a 0.28% gain and in years that the index was down double digits year to date, it has posted an even more impressive 1.13% gain on that day with positive performance better than 90% of the time. After coming back with full bellies on Friday, traders have continued to push the index higher again with consistently positive performance, especially in years the index entered the week down significantly year to date.
As for where the index goes from there, the S&P 500 has risen from the close of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through the end of the year roughly three-quarters of the time with an average gain of 1.93%. When momentum has been dragging the index lower year to date, though, rest of year performance has been less positive. Again looking at years in which the index has fallen at least 10% headed into Thanksgiving week as is the case this year, positive returns through the end of the year have been less common only happening half the time with an average decline of 0.1%. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
Nov 18, 2022
Bespoke’s Crypto Report contains numerous technical, momentum, and sentiment charts for bitcoin, ethereum, and other key cryptos. Page 1 of the report includes our weekly commentary on the space and attempts to identify any new trends that are emerging. The remaining pages include important overbought/oversold levels to watch, charts on historical drawdowns and rallies, seasonality trends, futures positioning data, Google search trend shifts, and more. Our weekly Crypto Report is produced so that followers of the space can more easily stay on top of price action, technicals, seasonality, and sentiment.
Sign up for a monthly or annual subscription to Bespoke Crypto to receive our weekly Crypto Report and anything else we publish related to cryptos. Note: If you’re currently a Bespoke Premium, Bespoke Newsletter, or Bespoke Institutional subscriber, you’ll need to subscribe to Bespoke Crypto as an add-on to receive access. The weekly Crypto Report and any additional crypto analysis is not included with our Premium, Newsletter, or Institutional memberships. You can sign up for Bespoke Crypto and receive our Crypto Report in your inbox weekly using the monthly or annual checkout links below. If you sign up for the annual plan, the first year of access is 50% off!
Bespoke Crypto Access — Monthly Payment Plan ($49/mth)
Bespoke Crypto Access — Annual Payment Plan ($247.50 for the first 12 months, then $495/year in year 2 and beyond)
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this service to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this service or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities, commodities, or cryptocurrencies. This service contains no buy or sell recommendations. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
