The Closer – Big Reactions, Small Cap Impacts, Housing – 5/11/26

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  • Triple plays have been common and rewarded handsomely so far this earnings season with average stock price reactions ranking in the 93rd percentile.
  • Top heaviness has been present in small cap stocks with a massive portion of the gains since relative performance lows last August.
  • Mortgage foreclosures rose to the highest level since December 2019 even though overall delinquencies fell to a five month low in March.

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The Closer – Fertilizer, Stable Sentiment, Expectations Up – 5/7/26

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  • Fertilizer prices have begun to moderate as related companies reported very strong first quarter results.
  • Despite the push to fresh highs, sentiment has not gotten overly extended.
  • The NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations saw multi-year highs for inflation expectaitons.

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The Closer – Leaping to New Highs, EIA, Employment – 5/6/26

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  • The S&P 500 jumped over 1% to a new high today with the low of the day being the open.
  • After a double-digit gain on Wednesday, Samsung is above a trillion dollar market cap and alongside SK Hynix accounts for almost half of total KOSPI market cap.
  • College graduate underemployment has moved materially higher since the release of ChatGPT.

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The Closer – Breadth Disconnect, AI Earnings, Prices Rising – 5/5/26

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  • The S&P 500 is closed in overbought territory on Monday while its 10-day advance/decline line was oversold. That is only the 33rd time that has happened since 1990.
  • For the first time since July 2022, more than half of respondents to the ISM Services PMI reported higher prices.
  • Electronics and related imports are rising at a rapid clip and accounted for 16.3% of goods imports in March.

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