The Closer – Brazil, Hot PPI, Hawks Speak – 5/13/26
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- The Brazil ETF (EWZ) was down 4% today, breaking support at its 50-DMA.
- Other than the 2022-2022 period of very high inflation, April saw the highest PPI reading since the current iteration of the final demand series was introduced back in 2010.
- Today’s Fedspeak in the wake of the latest inflation data was decisively hawkish.
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Chart of the Day – Bubbling Up
This content is for members onlyThe Closer – Overbought, Metals, CPI – 5/12/26
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- The Nasdaq 100 reached a 14-day RSI reading above 80 each of the past two days.
- Copper rose to a new 52-week high while silver has also begun to move higher. The chart for gold is looking less constructive.
- CPI saw the second largest leap in core prices since 2023, however, that acceleration was entirely due to vagaries of the rent calculation.
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Tech’s Spectacular Superlatives
It has now been 30 trading days since the Iran War low on March 30th, and in that time, Tech has become the clear star of the rally, racking up superlatives left and right. We have highlighted many of these superlatives in our Daily Sector Snapshots in the past several days, and below we show the charts for some of those stats.
To start, it may feel like Tech rallies just about every day since that low, and that’s almost correct. In the 30 sessions since the low, Tech has posted a daily gain on 24 of those days. As shown below, that is the most consistent stretch of daily gains in 30 days since February 2019. Going back to 1990, there have only been seven other (eight, including that 2019 instance) examples of Tech rallying for at least 24 of 30 sessions. Surprisingly, not a single one of those was during the Dot Com boom and bust. In fact, the first example wasn’t until late 2004.
That begs the question: how much is Tech up over those 30 days? The answer is over 30% thanks to the sector averaging daily gains of 0.91% during that time. That is now the largest 30-session rally since November 2002. Other than that, the only other handful of larger 30-day rallies were in 1998 and 2001.
The rapid move higher in Tech stocks has, as might be expected, left moving averages far behind and once again earns superlatives. As of yesterday’s close and recent high, Tech was over 17% above its 50-DMA. That is once again, a reading unlike anything seen since November 2002, and the only other examples of such extended prices were during the late 1990s/early 2000s (in addition to one other example in 1991).
While Tech is extremely extended in percentage terms, conditions are less extreme when looking at the 50-DMA spread in terms of standard deviations. Tech has been overbought (at least one standard deviation above the 50-day) every session since April 13th. Since April 14th, Tech has been deeply overbought, trading at least 1.5 standard deviations above that moving average. As shown below, that 21-day streak is now the longest since January 2020.
Finally, we would note that the latest rally didn’t only result in new highs for price. Tech has been the longstanding number one sector in terms of its weight in the S&P 500. Today, the sector accounts for 36.7% of the S&P 500’s total market cap, and as of yesterday’s close, it topped 37% for the first time on record.
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