Bespoke’s Crypto Report — 2/3/23
Bespoke’s Crypto Report contains numerous technical, momentum, and sentiment charts for bitcoin, ethereum, and other key cryptos. Page 1 of the report includes our weekly commentary on the space and attempts to identify any new trends that are emerging. The remaining pages include important overbought/oversold levels to watch, charts on historical drawdowns and rallies, seasonality trends, futures positioning data, Google search trend shifts, and more. Our weekly Crypto Report is produced so that followers of the space can more easily stay on top of price action, technicals, seasonality, and sentiment.
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Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this service to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this service or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities, commodities, or cryptocurrencies. This service contains no buy or sell recommendations. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
New Chapter in the Meme Stock Mania
We may be just a little more than a month into the new year, but there have already been a handful of Russell 1,000 stocks that have posted absolutely massive moves. There are currently seven Russell 1,000 stocks that have doubled year to date, some of which are more embattled high-growth stocks like Carvana (CVNA) and Peloton (PTON). Breaking down the index into deciles based on which stocks have the highest levels of short interest clearly shows that the top performers have also been those which have been most heavily bet against by investors. Whereas the decile of stocks with the lowest levels of short interest has risen a mere 4.4%, the decile of most heavily shorted names is up a substantial 36.3%.
Expanding to the Russell 3,000, in the chart below we show an equal weight index of the 100 most highly shorted stocks. Over the past month, the group has rallied almost 30%. That is a comparable rally to this past summer and outside of that, the only larger rallies of the past five years were coming out of the COVID Crash and the early 2021 short squeezes. This is not the first rodeo for highly shorted stocks flying higher. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
Dollar Down, Internationally Exposed Stocks Up
In last night’s Closer, we provided a decile breakdown of Russell 1,000 stocks’ year to date moves. One area in which there has been a clear distinction between winners and losers has been how exposed the companies are internationally. Given the dollar’s decline this year, stocks which generate a higher share of revenues abroad would face less headwinds from the dollar to make them more attractive and vice versa for stocks that are more domestically focused. That has largely appeared to have played out. As shown below, the decile of stocks that have the least international revenue exposure have only risen an average of 4.5% this year whereas most other deciles have seen average gains in the mid-teens. Then there is the 10th decile of stocks that generate the highest share of revenues abroad. That group is up an average of 22.4% this year.
Again, the dollar’s changes are a key reason for the strength in these stocks with heavy international revenue exposure. As shown below, Bloomberg’s trade-weighted dollar index peaked back in the fall and has been on a one-way trip lower, erasing much of the past year’s gains in the process. Over the past few days, the dollar has rebounded, but the steep downtrend is still alive and internationally focused companies may continue to have some fuel. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
The Closer – Dash for Trash Reaches Fever Pitch – 2/2/23
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a look at tonight’s earnings reports including the mega caps (page 1) followed by a decile breakdown of performance year to date (page 2). We then update today’s durable goods data (page 3) and the labor productivity numbers (page 4). We finish with a look at the latest housing inventories data (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!