Bitcoin Morning Strength

Mar 16, 2026

Alongside other risk assets rebounding to start the week, Bitcoin prices are approaching $74K, which is the highest price point since early February. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies differ from traditional assets in that they trade around the clock. In the charts below, we show an intraday composite for Bitcoin over the full course of a day over various time frames.  These charts show Bitcoin’s average price movement throughout the 24-hour trading day over the time frames shown.

As shown below, Bitcoin has averaged around a 0.75% daily gain so far in March, with the bulk of that strength occurring in morning trading.  In fact, Bitcoin has averaged around a 0.5% gain on the day heading into the US equity market open (9:30 AM ET) thanks to an early morning rally, and it has continued to rally towards a 1% gain by late morning. After peaking just before noon, Bitcoin has traded sideways all afternoon and night.

Bitcoin’s recent strength throughout the day is the opposite of what has been observed since the high in Bitcoin last fall. Generally speaking, throughout Bitcoin’s current drawdown, it has traded flat in the early morning hours and then lower throughout the US equity market trading day.

As shown below, Bitcoin has become less volatile as it has matured and especially since the latest waypoint of institutional adoption when spot ETFs garnered approval in early 2024. From 2017 up until early 2024 when the first spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, Bitcoin generally traded higher throughout the trading day save for during regular US trading hours when price action was more flat in addition to declines late at night.  Since spot ETFs like the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) were approved, though, price action has changed. Again, morning trading has been solid and even neck in neck with the intraday composite from before ETF approval.  Likewise, during regular trading hours, Bitcoin price action has been largely uneventful, that is until the end of the day. Whereas previously the close of regular market hours saw Bitcoin ramping higher, since ETFs were approved, the end of the equity trading session has seen steep declines.

As we have done with the S&P 500 (SPY) in the past, below we show the performance of two hypothetical strategies of ownership. The first would be to buy bitcoin and only hold during regular US equity market hours (buy the open, sell the close) while the other would be the reverse of only owning outside of regular trading hours (buy the close, sell the open). As we discussed above, throughout various periods, Bitcoin performance was stable at best when stocks, bonds, and commodities are trading hands. Given this, only owning Bitcoin during regular market hours over the past year would have been the losing strategy, resulting in a 17% loss. The opposite strategy hasn’t exactly been a huge winner, but it at the moment it would still have resulted in modest gains.  We would note that in the past two weeks, the two lines have begun to move in opposite directions. That dynamic was also prevalent from mid-December through the first week of the new year too.

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The Closer – Retail Teeter, Fertilizer, Trade – 3/12/26

Mar 12, 2026

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  • Retail flows and options volumes have moderated in the past year.
  • US based fertilizer prices have now risen 29% MTD thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The December 2026 Fed Funds rate implied by futures markets is now at the highest level since February of last year.

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Positive Sentiment Streak at an End

Mar 12, 2026

This week’s sentiment gauges saw some big moves. As we noted in last night’s Closer, the Charles Schwab (SCHW) Schwab Trading Activity Index, or STAX for short, experienced a near record increase in February. Meanwhile, other weekly sentiment gauges have deteriorated. The AAII survey is a prime example, as bullish sentiment fell to 31.9% this week. That is the sixth consecutive weekly decline, bringing bullish sentiment to the lowest level since the week of 11/13.

That drop in bulls was met with a double-digit percentage point surge in bears. Bearish sentiment leaped from 35.5% last week, a one-month low, to 46.4% today. That is the highest reading for bears since the week of 10/16 and the largest one-week increase since November.

Put together, the bull-bear spread has now been negative (meaning there are more bears than bulls) for the fourth week in a row.  The 12.1 point drop this week was the biggest WoW decline since the week of 11/13, and the spread is also the lowest since that same week.

In other words, the AAII survey has taken a decisively negative tone partway through the second week of conflict with Iran.  Likewise, the same can be said for other surveys, such as the NAAIM Exposure Index and the Investors Intelligence survey.  The former showed active managers reporting as the least aggressively long since the final week of last April during the tariff-tantrum.  Meanwhile, bulls dropped below 50% in the Investors Intelligence survey for the first time since November.  Putting it all together, our Sentiment Composite is back to negative territory following over six months of positive readings.

As shown below, this week snapped a streak of 29 consecutive weeks of positive readings in the sentiment composite. With the streak over, it ends as the fifth-longest streak on record.

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The Closer – Inline CPI, Commodities and Recession, SPR – 3/11/26

Mar 11, 2026

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  • CPI came in right in line with expectations in February as deceleration in supercore services acts as a major factor.
  • As the IEA announces release of emergency stockpiles, US strategic petroleum reserves are hardly recovered from massive drawdowns following the invasion of Ukraine.
  • Retail investor sentiment experienced one of the largest monthly increases on record in February.

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