The Closer – FOMC, TICS, PPI – 3/18/26

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  • Today’s Federal Reserve policy statement contained no material surprises and Fed Chair Powell’s presser was also mostly unremarkable.
  • DRAM/NAND memory producer Micron (MU) blew the doors off earnings with revenues 21% above estimates and triple what they were a year ago.
  • The latest PPI release showed that costs were broadly accelerating even before the recent leap in gasoline and diesel prices.

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The Closer – FOMC, Energy, Credit – 3/17/26

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  • Since the last FOMC meeting on January 28th, the Fed Funds future curve has shifted justifiably and dramatically.
  • Stocks with the highest international revenue exposure have seen large moves since the start of the war in Iran.
  • February saw a steep decline in the number of consumers receiving rejections after applying for credit.

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The Closer – $2 Per Day, Positioning, Credit – 3/16/26

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  • Despite the dip today, front month WTI is rising at a $2/day pace.
  • Positioning data is beginning to reflect adjustments in energy and agriculture commodity futures as a result of the closure of the Strait Hormuz.
  • Consumer lending, private equity, and private credit stocks are down as IG credit spreads have soared.

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