The Closer – Earnings, Revisions, Data Center ABS – 4/22/26

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  • Tesla (TSLA) reported earnings after the bell with weaker profitability in part because of a litany of massive projects such as Optimus robots, Robotaxi rollout, and more.
  • Since the end of 2024, earnings estimates have risen 25.3% and have accelerated more recently with the 6 month change in the 95th percentile of all periods.
  • After a strong Q1 last year, data center ABS issuance has moderated over the past year.

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The Closer – Warsh, Tech Finally Falls, Credit Cards – 4/21/26

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  • The Tech sector ended a 14-day long winning streak; the sector’s second longest winning streak on record.
  • Weekly estimates of private sector jobs growth from ADP continue to impress and are running above 200K for March.
  • Credit card issuer delinquency rates have generally remained stable as related stocks have rebounded solidly.

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The Closer – Hawkish Shift, Rate Outlook, Canada Data – 4/20/26

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  • Volatility indices like the VIX and MOVE have cratered back below their 6-month averages while the volatility index for oil remains a full standard deviation above.
  •  Recent years have consistently seen seasonally weak readings in payrolls in the second half of the year.
  • Quarterly data from the Bank of Canada showed the effects of last year’s trade disputes are starting to ease.

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