Gold Caught in the Middle

Apr 27, 2026

Last year, precious metals were an astoundingly strong trade with some of the strongest performance of any asset. As shown below, as the calendar turned the page, the rally in front month gold has reversed. Over the last year, gold is still handily outperforming indices like the S&P 500, Russell 1,000 Value, and Russell 1,000 Growth. However, the Nasdaq has caught the yellow metal due to a combination of Tech stock’s recent strength and the recent weakness in gold.

Checking in on front month gold’s drawdown, at the worst of the decline on a closing basis, gold fell 17.7% versus its January peak. As shown below, that was the sharply drawdown since late 2022, but is far from the worst declines on record.  Further, the metal has rallied back to now be 11.8% from its 52-week high. That is only a few percentage points worse than the historical average drawdown (-9.9%).

As shown below, gold peaked in late January and after successfully testing support at its 50-DMA intraday on February 2nd, it quickly moved higher to retest prior highs within the next month.  That run to new highs was unsuccessful though as gold has lost its glitter. The metal closed below its 50-DMA by March 18th (the first instance since August 21, 2025) and continued lower throughout the back half of the month.  Similar to the early February intraday test of the 50-DMA, on March 23rd, gold tested its 200-DMA. While it never closed below, the rally higher since then has stalled as it re-addressed the 50-DMA which is now trending lower.

Again, last month gold never quite fell below its 200-DMA on a closing basis. As a result, the metal has kept alive the second longest streak of closes above its 200-DMA on record: this streak is now at 615 straight trading days, meaning the last time gold closed below its 200-DMA was on November 10, 2023. Ironically, while this streak is still alive and well (gold would need to fall over 10% to return to the 200-DMA), it has also been on a growing streak of closes below its 50-DMA. As shown in the second chart below, gold has been below its 50-DMA for 28 straight days, the longest since a 41-day long streak ending in July 2023.

All that is to say that from a technical picture, front month gold has seen a deterioration in its technical picture as it is now sandwiched between support at the 200-DMA and 50-DMA.  While those two moving averages will continue to be levels to watch, there is a wide spread between them. As shown below, there’s 16% between the two moving averages, and one month ago that spread was over 20%. The only other times this spread has been wider was 1980, 1983, 2006, and 2008.

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Semi Stocks Boost the S&P 500

Apr 24, 2026

Since the March 30th low, one of the best performing areas of the stock market has been the semiconductors. At the moment, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (or the SOX) has risen for 18 sessions in a row since the March 30th low.  Using the tradable VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) as a proxy, the group is now up right around 40% since then, which is a record 18-day rally since its inception.

Of course, the semiconductors are now home to some of the largest stocks in existence.

Broadcom (AVGO) now trades with a greater that $2 trillion market cap and, of course, there is NVIDIA (NVDA), with a market cap above $5 trillion.

Given the S&P 500 is market-cap weighed, the semis are the single largest weight of any industry group. In fact, the group accounts for 15.5% of S&P 500 weight.

So with a combination of massive outperformance and a massively large weight, the semiconductors are to thank for 4.9 percentage points of the index’s 12.8% rally since March 30th, meaning they’ve accounted for roughly 40% of the gain.

As shown below, that is more than twice as large of a positive contribution as the next best, Media & Entertainment, with 2.12 percentage points.

The other two Tech sector industries – Tech Hardware & Equipment and Software & Services – have also made positive contributions. The latter might come as a surprise as it has been a beleaguered group for most of the year. Nonetheless, since the lows, it is to thank for more than a full percentage point of the S&P’s 12.8% rally.

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Bulls Charge Back

Apr 24, 2026

The S&P 500 has finally returned to record highs in the past couple of weeks, and sentiment has reflected that positive price action.

This week’s release of the American Association of Individual Investors survey came in with 46% of respondents reporting bullish sentiment. That is the highest level of bullishness since January 15, 2026.

That surge in bullish sentiment corresponded with an 8.4 percentage point decline in bears. At 34.4%, bearish sentiment per this survey is now at the lowest level since the final week of January.

For bullish sentiment, this week’s jump was big. As shown below, the 14.3 percentage point increase week-over-week was the largest one-week uptick since January 23, 2025. Additionally, for the full history of the survey dating back to 1987, this weekly change ranks in the 97th percentile of readings.

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