Bespoke Brexit Presentation
We were scheduled to host our Q3 Outlook call today based on the Quarterly Outlook report we published on Wednesday. Instead, due to the volatility around the Brexit “Leave” vote last night, we pivoted our presentation towards Brexit implications because it has obviously become much more relevant today. It was certainly an interesting exercise to get it prepared from about midnight last night when the BBC called it for “Leave” through this morning at 11 am when we were scheduled to hold the call. Having said that, we hope our clients found it useful to put today’s events in context. We will of course have more to say about Brexit over the coming days (and beyond).
The Brexit presentation and audio recording of the call are available for paid members only. You can become a member with one of our three subscription levels, descriptions of which can be seen at our Bespoke Research Packages page. If you are already a member, please login here to view the replay and slides.
Bespoke’s Sector Snapshot — 6/23/16
We’ve just released our weekly Sector Snapshot report (see a sample here) for Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members. Please log-in here to view the report if you’re already a member. If you’re not yet a subscriber and would like to see the report, please start a 14-day trial to Bespoke Premium now.
Below is our trading range screen of the S&P 500 and its ten sectors. For each sector, the dot represents where it’s currently trading within its range, while the tail end represents where it was trading one week ago. Moves into the red zone are considered “overbought,” while moves into the green zone are considered “oversold.”
The black vertical “N” line in the screen represents each sector’s 50-day moving average. Solid gains today pushed the S&P and all ten of its sectors above their 50-day moving averages. That’s a healthy sign in our view.
Notably, even with the index trading slightly overbought from a price perspective, the S&P 500’s 10-day advance/decline line is slightly negative. That means underlying internals are far from overheated. This suggests that there’s still plenty of room to run on the upside if investors can just stay upbeat.
To see our full Sector Snapshot with additional commentary plus six pages of charts that include analysis of valuations, breadth, technicals, and relative strength, start a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now. Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.
Bespoke Q3 Market Outlook
In April, we published our quarterly outlook report and held our first ever conference call for Bespoke clients. Based on the positive feedback, we will make this a regular feature of the Bespoke membership. Our next call is scheduled for next week on Friday, June 24th. Prior to that, we’ll publish The Bespoke Report: Q3 2016 Outlook on Wednesday, June 22nd. We’ll re-visit our stance from last quarter’s outlook and our annual outlook report (published in January) that despite anticipated volatility, equities have some key tailwinds to support a rally through year-end. Clients will also have an opportunity to submit questions for the Bespoke team to answer on the call. Between Fed expectations, Brexit and a global equities swoon, the Q&A is sure to be lively!
The quarterly outlook report and the conference call are for Bespoke clients only. Please review our subscription options and choose the annual or monthly plan that best suits your needs. If you’re not ready to purchase today, you can start a 14-day trial. Please note, however, that the outlook report and conference call are only available with a paid subscription, not with a free trial.
Tale of Two Retailers: Consumer Pulse Update
In the past few months, we’ve introduced a product called Consumer Pulse that uses survey data from thousands of consumers to identify actionable investment ideas. In the past, we’ve highlighted trends in Apple and Amazon, and today we have another example of how useful this product can be for making investment decisions. Earlier this month, Consumer Pulse subscribers got an update that we had rotated out of Target (TGT) and into Wal-Mart (WMT) based on results from the April survey. Now that both companies have reported Q1 and we’ve seen the thesis play out, we wanted to highlight what we learned through Pulse:
Recent Results: Target reported on 5/18. Q1 earnings actually beat estimates while revenue was a little lower than analyst expectations. However, based on a soft outlook for Q2 and very cautious commentary from management, shares were off by as much as 11% post the earnings release. Bricks and mortar retailers traded off alongside Target on Wednesday as the market prepared for Wal-Mart to release earnings the following day. When Wal-Mart finally did release on Thursday 5/19, WMT holders got a nice surprise as the troubles at Target were nowhere to be found in Wal-Mart.
Survey Says: While the divergence in the fortunes in Wal-Mart and Target caught many market commentators off sides, we were able to observe this trend through our survey data weeks in advance. Among the many trends we follow in our Pulse surveys is store traffic as reported by actual consumers. Based on our most recent surveys, we noticed a clear negative change in Target traffic relative to Wal-Mart and other discount retailers. In fact during the earnings call, Target’s management noted the traffic decline in April, which is exactly what our survey data reflects.
Bespoke subscribers (and now non-subscribers too!) can purchase our Consumer Pulse survey analysis for just $365/year or $39.99/month (including a 30-day free trial). We strongly encourage you to give our Consumer Pulse subscription a try!
As a non-member, you can purchase Consumer Pulse below as a stand-alone product, or subscribe to one of our other memberships and get a big discount on Consumer Pulse. Click here to learn more about the product.
Annual — Bespoke Consumer Pulse — $365/Year w/ 1-Month Free Trial
Monthly — Bespoke Consumer Pulse — $39.99/Month w/ 1-Month Free Trial