Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/13/22 – More Monday Weakness

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“Come what may, all bad fortune is to be conquered by endurance.” – Virgil

Morning stock market summary

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It’s not a pretty picture for risk assets of any kind this morning as equity indices around the world are down over 2%, US futures are down by about the same amount, treasuries are selling off hard, and crypto prices are down sharply. Concerns over inflation and its impact on economic growth have become heightened over the last several days, and unlike prior periods in recent history where growth has come into question, with inflation pressures as strong as they are, there is little optimism that the Fed can help to cushion the blow.

In today’s Morning Lineup, there’s a lot covered this morning as we discuss prior streaks of 1%+ and 2%+ declines for the market (pg 4), the plunge in crypto prices (pg 5), overnight movements in the yen (pg 6), action in Asian and European markets (pg 6), overnight economic data in Asia and Europe (pg 7), and much more.

The first trading day of the week has already been weak for the market, but today’s 2%+ downside gap in SPY will be, by far, the largest downside gap to start a week of the year and the largest since March 2020.

Weak Opening Gap

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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Down: What Else is New?

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“Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.” – Daniel Kahneman

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members.  Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.

Today, the futures aren’t even attempting to sucker traders in with a rally, so maybe today, we’ll actually get a bounce.  Treasuries are continuing to rally again this morning, while crude oil trades modestly lower and crypto plunges.  Overnight, China pledged further support to its economy.  On the geopolitical front, Finland has said it is preparing to apply for membership in NATO, and Russia has responded by threatening retaliatory steps of both military and ‘other’ measures.

We just got a chunk of economic data in the form of PPI and jobless claims.  In terms of PPI. headline CPI was in line with forecasts at a m/m gain of 0.5%.  Core PPI rose much less than expected at 0.4% vs 0.7%, but data for March was revised higher.  In terms of jobless claims, initial claims came in 10K higher than expected 203K vs 193K while continuing claims showed another drop falling to 1.343 million versus forecasts for 1.372 million.  Equity futures have seen little in the way of a reaction to the news while treasury yields remain lower.

In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap the recent developments in the crypto space (pg 4), overnight earnings (pg 5), economic data out of Europe (pg 6), and a lot more.

The year is barely more than a third over, but already the Nasdaq has had 24 different over the course of just 90 trading days.  That works out to more than once a week!  Again, we still have nearly two-thirds of the year left ahead of us, but already, the number of 2%+ daily declines this year ranks as the 8th highest in the Nasdaq’s history.  The only years that were higher were 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009, and 2020.  If, and this is a big if, the current pace of 2% declines continues, 2022 wouldn’t quite catch 2000 for the record number of 2% declines in a single year, but it would be a close second.

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