Jun 1, 2022
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out tonight by looking at the performance of momentum relative to value as well as how earnings estimates have changed (page 1). We then pivot over to a look at the technicals of high yield and investment-grade bond ETFs. We zero in on the record streak below the 50-DMA for investment grade and what previous streaks have meant for performance (pages 2 and 3). We then quantify the Beige Book findings (page 4), update job openings data (pages 5 and 6), before closing out with an update of manufacturing PMIs (page 7).
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Jun 1, 2022
Please click the image below to view our June 2022 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Jun 1, 2022
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s report we discuss the worst bond market in history through May.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
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May 24, 2022
In addition to weaker than expected preliminary S&P Global (formerly Markit) PMIs, another weak regional Fed manufacturing index hit the tape this morning. The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Composite dropped into contraction in May as the index hit its lowest level in two years. The 23-point month-over-month drop was also the second-largest decline on record behind the 49-point drop in April 2020.
Each regional Fed’s headline manufacturing number differs slightly in composition and the Richmond reading is made using shipments, new orders, and employment as inputs. As shown below, each of those indices experienced historic declines this month causing the massive drop in the composite. Breadth elsewhere in the report was not much better though. Other categories like capacity utilization, order backlogs, and average workweek also pulled back sharply. Meanwhile, expectations for several categories are in the bottom few percentile of their historical ranges going back to the start of the data in the 1990s. Overall, this month’s report showed a massive slowdown in activity that is consistent with other surveys that have come out this month.
Two of the inputs to the composite that also fell into contraction this month were new orders and shipments. New Orders have seen a small handful of larger declines with September of last year being the most recent one. New Orders were also much lower after that decline last fall. As for Shipments, the 31-point month-over-month decline ranks as the second-largest on record next to April 2020 when the index fell a whopping 77 points. While it does not necessarily outweigh the rapid deterioration in demand, one silver lining of the report was a further huge improvement in supply chains. The reading on Vendor Lead Times was sliced in half as the index remains below pre-pandemic levels.
Again, Employment is the third input to the composite and it was the sole input to remain in expansion in May. That being said, it too fell sharply versus the prior month. While that reading indicates lower mid-Atlantic manufacturers are currently net taking on more workers, expectations saw a record decline meaning hiring plans are likely to decelerate significantly in the near future. That is as wage growth has stalled out and the length of the average workweek has been cut.
Finally, in spite of supply chain improvements and weaker demand, prices have continued to rise unabated. Prices paid hit fresh record highs across both current conditions and expectations. Prices received are off-peak but the reading did tick up slightly in May. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
May 24, 2022
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It can be terribly dangerous, even perilous, to assume that because people hold positions of responsibility they are therefore acting responsibly.” – David McCullough
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
That rally lasted long. After bouncing from the last hour on Friday through yesterday, US stocks are set to open down by over 1% this morning following Snap’s (SNAP) earnings warning and its comments regarding the weakening broader macroeconomic environment. Adding to the concerns regarding the economy, preliminary PMI readings out of Europe also came in lower than expected. The US versions of these reports will be released later this morning. Given these growth concerns, treasuries are rallying as the 10-year yield drops back down to 2.82%. Oil prices, however, are largely unchanged on the day.
In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap on the latest declines in the tech sector (pg 4), Asian and European markets (pg 4), COVID case numbers (pg 5), the latest economic data out of Asia and Europe (pg 5), and a lot more.
After a 1.87% gain for the S&P 500 (SPY) yesterday, we’re seeing the inverse of a “Turnaround Tuesday” this morning with SPY set to open lower by just over 1%. Since 1993 when SPY began trading, there have only been five prior instances in which SPY rose 1%+ on a Monday and then gapped lower by more than 1% the next morning. As shown below, SPY continued lower from the open to the close on four of the five prior Tuesdays, and one week from the Tuesday open, SPY was down all five times for an average decline of 2.3%. One step forward, two steps back.
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