While we don’t ever suggest that investors should base their trading solely on the calendar, there is evidence that the market and many stocks do indeed follow seasonal patterns. This makes our S&P 500 Stock Seasonality report a useful addition to every investor’s toolbox. Using the last ten years worth of price data, our Stock Seasonality report looks at the average returns for the S&P 500, its eleven sectors, and its 500 individual stocks. In the report, we highlight the five stocks in each sector that have historically been the best and worst performers over the next two weeks. For each stock, we also include information such as average returns, the percent of time each stock or sector is positive/outperforms the S&P 500, and its historical performance over the next two weeks for each of the last ten years. The Stock Seasonality report is published on a weekly basis on Mondays, and it is available to all Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional subscribers.
This week’s stock that we have chosen to highlight is salesforce.com (CRM). CRM typically reports Q4 earnings late in the month of February, and this year is scheduled to report after the close on 2/28. Historically speaking, investors have liked what they have seen in the report. As shown in our Earnings Screener, the stock has gapped up following its Q4 report in eight of the last ten years, and in many cases by double-digit percentages. Overall, in the two-week period from the close on 2/20 through the close on 3/6, CRM has seen a median gain of 6.9% with gains in all but one year. That one year where the stock declined was in 2011, but it wasn’t the earnings that dinged the stock back then, because on its earnings reaction day, CRM rallied close to 5%.
For active traders, our Stock Seasonality report is an excellent tool to help keep track of the best and worst times of year for the overall market, sectors, and individual stocks. To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!