Nov 11, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The test of success is not what you do when you are on top. Success is how high you bounce when you hit the bottom.” – George S. Patton
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures are in hangover mode after yesterday’s big rally to start the week, which put a dent in a good chunk of last week’s decline. At this point, S&P 500 futures indicate just a modest decline of 0.2% at the open, while the Nasdaq is down twice that. The Treasury market is closed for Veterans Day, but both crude oil and gold are up about 0.8% while cryptocurrencies are lower. In Europe, the STOXX 600 is up another 0.8%, while Asian stocks were mixed.
Judging by the metrics of General Patton’s quote above, the bounce of last April’s low was one of the most successful of all time, and even the bounce off last week’s test of the 50-DMA has, initially at least, been successful. On this Veterans Day, we want to thank anyone who has served in the US Armed Forces for their service. Everyone in the country appreciates their service.
Given the Veterans Day holiday, we wanted to look at how aerospace and defense stocks have performed so far this year. From last November through early April, the group traded mostly sideways, so while it didn’t rally with the broader market to close out 2024, it didn’t feel much of the effects of the tariff-tantrum in March and April. Since those April lows, though, the sector has taken off and not looked back. Like the S&P 500, the group tested its 50-DMA last Friday but managed to bounce and stay above that level.
With the successful test of the 50-DMA, the Aerospace and Defense industry has closed above its 50-DMA for 139 trading days. That’s the longest streak since a record 151 trading days in 2017 and ranks as the third-longest in the last 30 years.
May 29, 2024
Even after today’s decline, the S&P 500 still sits on a year-to-date gain of over 10% indicating just how strong the first five months of 2024 have been. The Dow, however, has followed a much weaker path as it’s barely holding onto gains for the year at 2.2%.
The scatter chart below shows the YTD performance of the S&P 500 and the Dow in the first five months of the year, and they tend to track each other very closely. Even though the construction of the two indices is very different and 500 stocks comprise the S&P 500 compared to just 30 for the Dow, the performance of the two indices has been very similar over time. If one index is up in the high-single-digit percentages, the other usually is too. That’s what makes this year and last year so unique.
The S&P 500 is on pace to outperform the Dow by over eight percentage points in the first five months of this year, and that follows last year when the performance gap was even wider! As shown in the chart below, the last two years have seen the widest margin of outperformance between the S&P 500 over the Dow. In 1999, the Dow outperformed the S&P 500 by a similar magnitude, but the last two years have been unprecedented in terms of the S&P 500 outperforming the Dow.
The table below shows the YTD performance and weightings of the 30 Dow components (sorted by weighting). Overall, the average stock in the index has rallied 4.25%, so on an unweighted basis, the performance gap isn’t quite as wide, but one of the bigger drags on the Dow this year has been UnitedHealth (UNH). The stock’s weight in the Dow is over 8.5%, and shares have slipped nearly 4% on the year. Boeing (BA) doesn’t have as large of a weight in the index, but its 30%+ decline has been a big drag as well, while other notable losers have been McDonald’s (MCD) and Home Depot (HD).
Technology has been a large contributor to the S&P 500’s YTD gain, but within the Dow, the sector has a weighting of over 19%, which isn’t small. The only problem is the Technology stocks that comprise the index (shaded in gray). Regarding tech stocks in the DJIA, outside of Microsoft (MSFT), which has rallied over 14% this year, some of the sector’s other representatives – (we’re looking at you Cisco and Intel) aren’t what most investors would consider cutting edge!
Mar 11, 2022
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“And Lord, we’re especially thankful for nuclear power, the cleanest safest energy source there is. Except for solar, which is just a pipe dream.” – Homer Simpson
It’s just a coincidence that Google searches for the term ‘nuclear war’ are hitting a record high as we’re marking the 11th anniversary of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, but the term nuclear has been showing up a lot lately. Whether it is Germany’s plan to shut down its nuclear power plants and make it even more reliant on Russian energy, or the Russian invasion of Ukraine that has raised risks of a nuclear accident at the site of the former Chernobyl plant or Ukraine’s other nuclear power plants that are operational, or the risk of nuclear war with Russia if NATO comes in to actively help defend Ukraine, you can’t get away from the subject of nuclear lately.
Thankfully, equity markets look to be putting a lot of these concerns aside temporarily giving investors a reprieve heading into the weekend. S&P 500 futures are currently up over 1%, crude oil is up over 1%, gold is down 1.5%, the 10-year yield is flat right at about 2.0%, and bitcoin is right around $40,000. The positive tone in equities was present for most of the night but just got an added boost shortly before 7 AM on reports that Russian President Putin said there were positive shifts in talks with Ukraine. At this point, the markets will take whatever good news they can get, but keep in mind that Putin is also the one who said Russia wouldn’t invade Ukraine.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.
It’s been a pretty nasty week for US equities since the close last Thursday. During that span, the S&P 500 is down over 2% while the Nasdaq is down 3%. The worst performing sector during this period has been Consumer Staples (XLP) which is down close to 5%, while Technology (XLK) and Financials (XLF) are both down over 3%. Rounding out the top five of biggest losers, Communication Services (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) are both down over 2.5%. Not surprisingly, all five of the aforementioned sectors are also at short-term oversold levels.
While most sectors are lower, three have managed to buck the trend over the last week. Energy (XLE) has been the biggest winner, rising close to 6%, followed by Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE). Unfortunately for the broader market, though, these three sectors are also the smallest sectors in terms of their weightings in the overall S&P 500.
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.
