No one was expecting a strong number for jobless claims this week as forecasts were predicting claims to come in at a record high. The median forecast was calling for claims to total 1.7 million compared to 282K last week which had been the highest reading since September of 2017.  Instead, they practically doubled those forecasts coming in at a record 3.283 million. Fortunately, that was less than some of the most aggressive estimates like Citigroup which forecasted claims to be 4 million.  This week’s data is an unprecedented albeit anticipated jump in jobless claims. To put the size of the number into perspective, that is roughly 1% of not  the US working population, but the entire US population!  In the history of the data going back to 1967, there has never been a higher number in the level of claims (first chart below) or week-over-week change (second chart below). The previous high for jobless claims was 695K from October of 1982, almost one-fifth of this week’s print.  As for the week to week changes, the over 3 million increase in claims blew the size of the previous largest movements out of the water.

The four week moving average typically helps to smooth out the week to week fluctuations of the high-frequency data, but considering the size of the move, the utility of the moving average is fleeting this week. The moving average has also reached a record high and experienced the largest one week increase on record.

While it may not be much consolation given how horrific this week’s numbers are, one silver lining is in the non-seasonally adjusted number. Before seasonal adjustment, jobless claims were slightly less staggering at 2.898 million. In other words, seasonal factoring does make the number of claims look higher than the actual amount reported. But that is still the largest weekly increase and highest number on record regardless of any seasonal patterns that may be affecting the number. Given more workers are continuing to stay home than return to work these numbers are likely to keep rising over the coming weeks. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.

Turnaround Tuesday has carried into hump day with the Dow up well over 5% again today as of this writing.  As we mentioned in an earlier post, that means the Dow is on track for its first back-to-back up days for the first time since early February.  Remarkably, even with only two consecutive up days, the index is closing in on exiting a bear market. For that to happen, the Dow would need to close above the 22,310.32 level which is 20% off of the bear market closing low (Monday’s close at 18,591.93). At today’s high, the Dow was less than 300 points or 1.32% from that level.

As for the individual stocks contributing to the rally, Boeing (BA) deserves a lot of thanks.  The stock has been hit very hard during the sell-off. Whereas the stock has traded in the mid-$300 for much of the past two years and up to mid-February, as of late last week BA had fallen below $100.  That massive drop in price means that day to day movements in the stock would have a lesser impact on the level of the price-weighted Dow. In spite of this, BA has contributed over 400 points to the Dow’s rally in the past two days alone!  That is much more than any other stock in the index with the next biggest contributor being UnitedHealth (UNH) who’s 335.44 point contribution comes as its share price is currently around $100 more than BA.  BA’s contribution is also almost 200 points more than those of McDonald’s (MCD), Visa (V), and Apple (AAPL). Of all 30 Dow stocks, there is only one that is down over the past couple of days, subtracting from the index’s rally: Walmart (WMT). Given WMT has held up fairly well recently, its performance is yet another example of investors’ focus on the more beaten down names that we have noted earlier today and in last night’s Closer. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access Closer and full range of research and interactive tools.

The way things have been moving on a minute to minute basis, nothing is guaranteed in this market, but the way things stand now, the Dow is on pace to break its streak of days without back to back daily gains at 32 trading days.  That’s right, not since February 6th have we seen the Dow finish the day in positive territory for more than a day at a time.  Looking back throughout history, there have only been a handful of other periods where the DJIA went this long or longer without two up days in a row.  The last occurrence was all the way back in 1984, and before that, you have to go back to 1969.  Other than those two streaks, there were also two other periods in 1931 where the DJIA went more than 30 trading days without back to back gains.  While the current streak ranks as tied for the fourth-longest on record, if the DJIA isn’t able to hold onto its intraday gains today, the current streak will extend out to a minimum of at least two trading days and that would move the current streak into second place overall.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our Custom Portfolios, interactive tools, and full library of research.