2021 Outlook – Seasonality
Our 2021 Bespoke Report market outlook is the most important piece of research that Bespoke publishes each year. We’ve been publishing our annual outlook piece since the formation of Bespoke in 2007, and it gets better every year! In this year’s edition, we’ll be covering every important topic you can think of that will impact financial markets in 2021.
The 2021 Bespoke Report contains sections like Valuation, The Fed, Sector Technicals and Weightings, Stock Market Sentiment, Stock Market Seasonality, Housing, Commodities, and more. We’ll also be publishing a list of our favorite stocks and asset classes for 2021 and beyond.
We’ll be releasing individual sections of the report to subscribers until the full publication is completed by year-end. Today we have published the “Seasonality” section of the 2021 Bespoke Report, which looks at the seasonal trends of various asset classes.
To view this section immediately and all other sections, become a member with our 2021 Annual Outlook Special!
2021 Outlook – Economic Cycles
Our 2021 Bespoke Report market outlook is the most important piece of research that Bespoke publishes each year. We’ve been publishing our annual outlook piece since the formation of Bespoke in 2007, and it gets better every year! In this year’s edition, we’ll be covering every important topic you can think of that will impact financial markets in 2021.
The 2021 Bespoke Report contains sections like Valuation, The Fed, Sector Technicals and Weightings, Stock Market Sentiment, Stock Market Seasonality, Housing, Commodities, and more. We’ll also be publishing a list of our favorite stocks and asset classes for 2021 and beyond.
We’ll be releasing individual sections of the report to subscribers until the full publication is completed by year-end. Today we have published the “Economic Cycles” section of the 2021 Bespoke Report, which recaps trends and levels of different US economic indicators and what they say about the health of the US economy.
To view this section immediately and all other sections, become a member with our 2021 Annual Outlook Special!
2021 Outlook – Economic Indicators
Our 2021 Bespoke Report market outlook is the most important piece of research that Bespoke publishes each year. We’ve been publishing our annual outlook piece since the formation of Bespoke in 2007, and it gets better every year! In this year’s edition, we’ll be covering every important topic you can think of that will impact financial markets in 2021.
The 2021 Bespoke Report contains sections like Economic Cycles, The Fed, Sector Technicals and Weightings, Stock Market Sentiment, Stock Market Seasonality, Housing, Commodities, and more. We’ll also be publishing a list of our favorite stocks and asset classes for 2021 and beyond.
We’ll be releasing individual sections of the report to subscribers until the full publication is completed by year-end. Today we have published the “Economic Indicators” section of the 2021 Bespoke Report, which recaps trends and levels of different US economic indicators and what they say about the health of the US economy.
To view this section immediately and all other sections, become a member with our 2021 Annual Outlook Special!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 12/11/20
B.I.G. Tips – IPOs Looking Bubbly
IPO Craze
It has been a big week for IPOs with DoorDash (DASH) and Airbnb (ABNB) both hitting the secondary market. These two stocks saw massive first-day gains of 86% and 113%, respectively. Generally speaking with the two aforementioned stocks as a case study, recent IPOs have been welcomed with open arms. As a result, the IPO ETF (IPO) has seen a sizeable rally having gained over 30% since the low at the end of October. While neither DoorDash nor Airbnb are current holdings of this ETF, this week saw some volatility with a 3% drop on the day of DoorDash’s debut and a 2.5% rally yesterday when Airbnb debuted. IPO currently sits just off its highs after the past month and a half’s rally, but that is at some of the most overbought levels of the past five years as shown in the second chart below.
Relative to the S&P 500 (SPY), IPOs have seen massive outperformance since the bear market lows. In the chart below we show the performance of the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) versus the S&P 500 (SPY) over the past five years. From 2016 through the pandemic lows in March, these two tracked each other very closely, but IPO has skyrocketed versus SPY over the last nine months. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options for our best research available.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/11/20 – No Deals Yet
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“Diplomacy is the art of telling people to go to hell in such a way that they ask for directions.” – Winston Churchill
Lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic are in intense discussions, but the involved parties in both sets of talks have yet to reach an agreement. Over in the UK, negotiators in the UK and EU have been at a stalemate and European Commission President Von Der Leyden says no deal is the most likely outcome of current talks. Closer to home in the US, lawmakers in Washington haven’t quite told each other to go to hell, but they still can’t agree on the terms of a new round of fiscal relief.
Futures are lower heading into the last trading session of the week as all of the major averages with the exception of the Russell 2000 are set to finish the week lower. Don’t tell that the this week’s latest round of IPOs, though. As noted in today’s Morning Lineup, they’ve been on fire lately.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, a recap of recent IPO performance, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
After yesterday’s rally in the Nasdaq, we wanted to provide a quick update on its intraday performance over the last three weeks. Even after yesterday’s rebound, the Nasdaq remains well below the uptrend it broke earlier this week. Looking forward, that level is likely to act as short term resistance on any bounce.
Similar to the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 also broke its uptrend earlier this week, but not to quite the same degree as the Nasdaq. Like the Nasdaq, though, that former uptrend line is likely to act as a short-term speed bump on any bounce.
Lastly, while most investors wouldn’t touch long-term treasuries at this point, they’ve actually performed quite well over the last few trading days and will likely break this short-term downtrend in today’s trading.
The Bespoke 50 Top Growth Stocks — 12/10/20
Every Thursday, Bespoke publishes its “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. Our “Bespoke 50” portfolio is made up of the 50 stocks that fit a proprietary growth screen that we created a number of years ago. Since inception in early 2012, the “Bespoke 50” is up 380.6% excluding dividends, commissions, or fees. Over the same period, the S&P 500 is up in price by 166.4%. Always remember, though, that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. To view our “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks, please start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 12/10/20
Meet the Nasdaq 100’s Post-Election Leaders
The Nasdaq 100 finally made a new high on Tuesday before pulling back yesterday, but in the run-up to new highs in the post-election rally, it hasn’t been the same old crew of stocks pushing the index higher. While the Nasdaq 100 is up about 12.5% since the election, thirteen stocks are up by more than twice the amount of the index itself. Leading the way higher, Moderna (MRNA) is up over 100% after positive news regarding its vaccine. After MRNA, shares of Pinduoduo (PDD), a Chinese e-commerce play, have rallied more the 50%, rising from $97.72 up to $154.00. Tesla (TSLA) rounds out the top three with a gain of 47% in just the last five weeks. The next two stocks on the list – Applied Materials (AMAT) and Micron (MU) – can hardly be considered emerging stocks. In addition to those two stocks from the semiconductor sector, three others from the sector made the cut (LRCX. MCHP, and QCOM) as chips have been red-hot.
At the bottom of the table, we have also included the performance of the five mega-cap stocks of the Nasdaq 100. While all five stocks outperformed for much of 2020, not a single one of them is outperforming the Nasdaq 100 since Election Day, and only Apple (AAPL) is anywhere close to matching the performance of the index itself.
The chart below shows the performance of an equally-weighted basket of the five mega-cap stocks over the last year. From 9/2 to 9/23, this basket of stocks pulled back more than 16%, and while it has been steadily grinding higher in the eleven weeks since that low, up until this point, the prior highs from September haven’t even come into play. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options and a free trial to our best research available.
