The BLS released October results of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey this morning showing a significant uptick in job openings.  Openings totaled 11.03 million in October, slightly below the record of 11.098 million from this past July.  Openings rose by 431K month over month which ranks as the biggest one-month uptick since July and is in the 94th percentile of all monthly moves.

While the JOLTS data is insightful, it is released at a decent lag. Job listings website Indeed, however, offers a higher frequency (daily) dataset with more up-to-date readings with the latest data available through November 26th.   As we discussed ahead of the JOLTS release in last night’s Closer, postings through this reading have been hitting new highs and are 57% above the February 2020 baseline reading.  That comes with acceleration in new postings being put up on the site throughout the fall, but especially so in recent weeks.

Indeed also offers a breakdown based on industry.  As shown below, there are four industries that currently have postings that are twice as high as they were pre-pandemic.  Ironically, given the fair degree of labor market slack, the human resources sector continues to top the list with postings almost 120% above the baseline level.  Loading & Stocks, Production & Manufacturing, and Software Development are the other most in-demand industries through late November.  The other end of the spectrum continues to include many reopening sensitive areas like Hospitality and Tourism (which has also been on the decline in recent weeks as shown in the next chart below), though, these too are now all above baseline levels.

As previously mentioned, Hospitality and Tourism have seen a decline in postings recently likely as a result of rising case counts. Noting a few other industries, Banking & Finance, Construction, Cleaning & Sanitation, and Food Preparation & Service have all seen an acceleration in postings.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

The S&P Case Shiller home price indices for September 2021 were released recently and showed that home prices nationally are now up 47% from their prior highs made during the housing bubble of the mid-2000s.  And notably, all 20 of the individual cities/regions tracked by S&P Case Shiller have now eclipsed their prior housing bubble highs now that Chicago has finally moved above its prior high from September 2006.  As shown below, home prices in Chicago are now 1% above those September 2006 levels.

Two cities — Dallas and Denver — have home price levels now that are 100%+ above their mid-2000 highs.  Five more cities are up at least 50% from their prior housing bubble highs — Seattle, Portland, Charlotte, San Francisco, and Boston.

You can see Chicago home price levels based on the S&P Case Shiller indices just barely eclipsing their prior highs in the chart below:

The pandemic has of course been a huge boon for home prices across the country.  Below is a look at how much home prices are up versus levels seen in February 2020 just prior to COVID.  Prices in Phoenix are up the most post-COVID at 45%, followed by San Diego and Tampa at 35%.  Las Vegas, Charlotte, Miami, Dallas, and Seattle have all seen prices rise by 30%+, while the remaining cities are all up between 19% and 27%.  Chicago, New York, and DC have seen home prices rise the least, but even these three cities are up ~20% since COVID hit.  Like this type of analysis?  See more of it with a Bespoke Premium membership.  Click here to learn more and start a two-week trial.

The Russell 2000 tracking ETF (IWM) has been particularly volatile as of late, and as of yesterday’s close, there have been seven straight trading days in which there was a 2% spread between the intraday high and low. A streak of seven had not been reached since July 2020 (7/2), and the current streak is tied for the longest since 6/22/2020. During the COVID correction, this streak of 2% intraday ranges actually reached 41 days, which was then followed by two streaks of nine trading days in the spring and summer. While the Russell 2000 is up sharply again today, because it gapped higher, the streak is likely to end at seven trading days unless IWM trades below $221.45 or above $226.64.

IWM has only had a streak of 41 or more three times since IWM began trading in late May of 2000. The longest streak came during the financial crisis from late 2008 through early 2009 when 67 consecutive trading days saw at least a 2% spread between IWM’s intraday highs and lows. Although the market currently appears quite volatile, it is hardy unprecedented, and IWM has experienced periods where it has undergone significant volatility for much longer periods than the current streak. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

On 6/5, El Salvador passed a bill that made Bitcoin legal tender in the nation effective 9/17. Since passing the bill, the country hosted a Bitcoin Week, which generated excitement from the crypto community in which he and political/industry leaders spoke about the logistics and benefits of legalizing Bitcoin as a legal tender.  During Bitcoin week, El Salvador’s leadership unveiled its plans for ‘Bitcoin City’, which will be funded by issuing a $1 billion Bitcoin Bond. The city (and the Bitcoin mining inside of it) will be powered by geothermal power generated from a nearby Volcano.

Over the weekend, El Salvador’s President, Nayib Bukele took to Twitter, stating that “El Salvador bought the dip” and added that he trades cryptocurrency for his country through his phone. Although Bitcoin enthusiasts view this adoption as revolutionary, the investing community has taken a different view. Since the country officially announced that Bitcoin would become legal tender, its bonds have declined in value.  As one example, the price of the country’s 7.65% bonds maturing in June 2035 has plummeted by 37.5%. Investors are wary of the idea of tying a country’s assets and balance of payments to an extremely volatile asset, and that has caused the yield on the bond shown below to rise nearly over 600 bps from under 8% to over 14% now.

The cost of insuring against default for El Salvador’s debt (credit default swaps) has risen significantly since the nation legalized Bitcoin as legal tender, and CDS spreads have more than doubled over the period. Will this dissuade other countries from using cryptocurrencies as legal tender? Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.