Daily Sector Snapshot — 1/23/23
Chart of the Day – Leading Indicators Head Further South
Earnings Onslaught On The Way
As we noted in today’s Morning Lineup, we may technically be in the midst of earnings season, but we have yet to see too heavy of a slate of reports. We are kicking off this week with another quiet day with only 11 reports scattered before and after the bell. Earnings will ramp up dramatically starting tomorrow, though, with the calendar remaining busy through the next month. As shown in the snapshot from our Earnings Explorer tool below, after today there will be another nearly 200 reports scheduled for this week alone.
While the number of stocks reporting will remain high through February, this week and next will see the bulk of companies in terms of market cap. In the chart below from last Friday’s Bespoke Report, we show each day’s daily market cap of S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings through the end of February. Through next Friday alone, a combined $19.8 trillion in market cap will report, or 57% of the S&P 500’s total market cap. That includes the mega-cap names with Microsoft (MSFT) leading things off tomorrow followed by Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday. Next Thursday, the combined $4.3 trillion in market cap from Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) will all be out on the same day. After that, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) will be the last remaining mega-cap stock to report earnings, and that will not be until February 27th.
To keep track of all upcoming earnings reports, be sure to check out our Earnings Explorer.Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 1/23/23
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It’s obvious that we don’t know one millionth of one percent about anything.” – Thomas Edison
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At 13 trading days into the new year, Communication Services (XLC) is currently the best-performing sector YTD with a gain of 10.65%. As shown below, XLC is easily the farthest above its 50-DMA of any sector, propelled last week by big moves higher in names like Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Remember, Communication Services was the worst-performing sector of 2022 with a decline of more than 37%. We’ve clearly seen some bottom fishing this year in last year’s hardest-hit areas of the market.
It’s not just the mega-caps driving Communication Services higher either. 84% of stocks in the sector are currently above their 50-DMAs; the highest reading for any sector. On the other hand, it’s the defensive areas of the market that investors have moved away from recently, with just 26.7% of Utilities sector stocks and 15.2% of Consumer Staples above their 50-DMAs. Consumer Staples (XLP) is the only sector that’s currently oversold.
See more of our thoughts on Communication Services, including a look at the individual names that make up the sector, in today’s Morning Lineup.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
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The Bespoke Report – 1/20/23 – We’ll Take It
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Since the start of Q4 last year we’ve seen a trend shift across a range of asset classes. Interest rates, the dollar, stocks, industrial metals, natural gas, and a range of other markets are moving in the opposite direction compared to most of last year. Some of this is down to luck – specifically related to the weather – but shifts from policymakers and economic data are also playing a major role. Despite trend shifts, US stocks have still not broken out. Earnings season is under way and could be the defining factor between whether bear market downtrends prevail or a new bull trend has been established.
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 1/20/23
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 1/20/23
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Your mind is like a parachute: If it isn’t open, it doesn’t work.” – Buzz Aldrin (born on this day in 1930)
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
While US index ETFs have pulled back over the last week, the rest of the world has actually held up just fine. As shown below, the Dow (DIA) is now in oversold territory and down YTD, while the S&P (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have moved below their 50-DMAs. All-world ex US (CWI), Europe (IEV), and emerging markets (EEM) have held steady in overbought territory over the last week and remain up 7-8% YTD. While SPY is down 2.8% over the last two days, EEM is actually up 7 basis points.
As we highlighted in yesterday’s Morning Lineup, Q4 earnings for Netflix (reported in January) has historically been its most positive quarter. The company didn’t disappoint this time around as shares are set to open higher by nearly 7% this morning.
Next week over 200 companies will report Q4 numbers, with plenty of blue-chips on the calendar. Probably the two most closely-watched releases will be Microsoft (MSFT) on Tuesday and Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday — both after the close.
Microsoft’s Q4 reports throughout its history have been relatively uninspiring compared to other quarters, as shown in the snapshot from our Earnings Explorer below:
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Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 1/19/23
Chart of the Day – Dollar Enters Correction Territory
Claims Peak Early
Jobless claims were anticipated to reverse much of last week’s improvement as forecasts were calling for initial claims to rise from 205K to 214K. Instead, there was a sub-200K print as claims fell to the lowest level since the end of September.
Before seasonal adjustments, claims fell to 285.58K from a seasonal peak of 339.16K last week. As shown below, a decline in the second week of the year is not unheard of but is not exactly the norm either. In most years, the second week of the year has marked the annual high for claims as the week has historically seen a week-over-week increase in claims 85% of the time. 2017 and 2018 are the two other most recent examples of claims peaking in the first rather than the second week of the year.
All that is to say, the week-over-week drop in the seasonally adjusted number per today’s print is perhaps a bit overstated. The end and start of the year tend to be volatile for seasonality thus the weeks ahead will help to provide a clearer picture of where claims really stand.
Turning over to continuing claims, the first week of the year saw claims rise by 17K up to 1.647 million. That is still below higher levels observed throughout late November and December as the deterioration in claims over the past month has subsided. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
