The Bespoke Triple Play Report — 2/10/23
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with above-expectations results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 14 stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/10/23 – A Volatile Rally
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Losing a Super Bowl destroys all the good things that happened to get you there.” – Don Shula
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
Just like one bad trade can ruin a trader’s year, one loss can ruin an entire season. Don’t take our word for it, just ask any of the players on the rosters or the fans of the 56 prior teams who have come up on the losing end. The 2007 Patriots are considered one of the best teams in NFL history, but given how that season ended, you’d have a hard time finding anyone on that roster who would call the season a success. Whatever you do, don’t ask Rodney Harrison.
On what has been the quietest week in terms of economic data all year, it’s been a disappointing one for equities. Futures are indicated to open moderately lower, putting the S&P 500 on pace to trade down on four of five days this week. Weakness today coincided with the European open as stocks on the continent have been trending lower all morning. The Nasdaq has been even weaker. Over the last five trading days, the Nasdaq has been down over 0.99% (not quite 1%) four times, and today, it’s on pace for another 1% decline.
Through Thursday, there have only been 27 trading days this year, and yet 16 have been moves of 1% or more. Since 1972, this is the tenth year where there have been 15 or more 1% daily moves, and last year there were actually 17 at this point. What’s unique about this year, though, is how strong stocks have been during this period of heightened volatility.
Volatility is usually a characteristic of a weak stock market rather than a strong one. Of the nine prior years where the Nasdaq had at least fifteen 1% daily moves in the first 27 trading days of the year, it was down YTD six times, and the largest YTD rally was 7.2% in 2000 (21 1% daily moves). This year, the Nasdaq is up over 12%! The other years were 1999 (19) and 2001 (16), and in those years it was up 5.3% and 3.7% YTD, respectively.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
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The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 2/9/23
The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis. The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday unless otherwise noted. There were four changes to the list this week.
The Bespoke 50 is available with a Bespoke Premium subscription or a Bespoke Institutional subscription. You can learn more about our subscription offerings at our Membership Options page, or simply start a two-week trial at our sign-up page.
The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results. The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday. Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning each week. Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price. Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%. Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs. As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities. Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking. Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 2/9/23
Chart of the Day – Sentiment Streaks Coming to a Close
Jobless Claims Above Expectations
After a few weeks of declines, jobless claims rose this week coming in at 196K on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to forecasts of a more modest increase to 190K. Albeit higher, jobless claims remain at healthy levels with this week marking the fourth in a row with a sub-200K reading.
Before seasonal adjustments, claims are at a point of the year in which they tend to trend lower. As for the most recent reading, claims rose from 225K to 234K. As shown in the second chart below, while claims do tend to fall at this point of the year, the current week of the year (as well as next week) has been less consistent with declines only around half the time. In other words, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims have flattened out a bit and should continue to be watched as that plateau is not necessarily going completely against usual seasonal patterns.
Continuing claims similarly rose by more than expected this week reaching 1.688 million, the highest level in a little over a month.
While both continuing and initial claims were higher this week, the past few months have generally seen a much more pronounced rise in the former than the latter. That marks a reversal from what was observed last year when initial claims were rising without continuing claims following suit. As a result of that move, the ratio of initial to continuing claims had surged well above what has historically been the norm, peaking in the summer. Fast forward to today, that ratio moved back below the low from early last spring to reach the lowest level since October 2020. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/9/23 – Claims Out
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I am a warrior, so that my son may be a merchant, so that his son may be a poet.” – John Quincy Adams
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
After a weak showing yesterday, bulls are attempting to rebound this morning as S&P 500 futures are up over 0.50%, and the Nasdaq is priced to open up by 1%. It’s been an extremely quiet week for economic data, but we just got two reports this morning with initial and continuing jobless claims coming out at 8:30. Both reports came in slightly higher than expected with initial claims exceeding forecasts by 6K and continuing claims topping forecasts by 28K.
Not only are US futures rising this morning, but stocks in Europe have also been marching higher. In fact, Germany’s DAX is up over 1% and is actually trading at a 52-week high. Bear what?
Today’s 52-week high for the DAX broke a streak of 314 trading days that the index has gone without trading at a 52-week high. As shown in the chart below, the streak that just ended was hardly extreme as there have been nine other periods where the index went longer without a 52-week high, including an 883 trading day stretch that ended in September 2003.
The DAX may be trading at a 52-week high from the perspective of a German investor, but for US investors, there’s still some climbing out of the hole left to go. On a dollar-adjusted basis, the DAX remains just over 6% below its 52-week high. In order to reach a new high, the dollar-adjusted DAX can get there one of two ways. It can either rally from here, or it can merely trade sideways and as the 52-week window continues to drop higher prices from last February, the bar will get increasingly set lower.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.
Daily Sector Snapshot — 2/8/23
Chart of the Day: Intraday Pattern Takes a 180
Refis Rise
Mortgage rates have come off of recent lows with the 30-year national average from Bankrate.com currently at 6.53%. While rates are not making new lows, those are much more attractive levels than last fall when they peaked well above 7%. On a rolling 3-month basis, the decline in mortgage rates continues to rank as some of the largest since the late 1990s (after the largest increase since the 1990s).
Given the alleviation on the rates front, purchase applications have been rebounding. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly purchase application index is currently 19.2% above the post-pandemic low put in place in the first week of the year.
When rates were rising rapidly, massively stifling demand last year, refinance applications had taken a much larger hit than purchase applications. At the worst levels during the holidays, refinance applications reached the lowest level since May 2000. Since the start of the year, though, refinance applications have surged. Although there is still plenty of lost ground still to make up as applications continue to run below the past two decades’ range, the 68% month-over-month increase in applications has been the largest jump since March 2020 when applications doubled. Of all weekly readings since 1990, the current one-month increase ranks in the top 5% of all month-over-month moves on record. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
