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“I am a warrior, so that my son may be a merchant, so that his son may be a poet.” – John Quincy Adams
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After a weak showing yesterday, bulls are attempting to rebound this morning as S&P 500 futures are up over 0.50%, and the Nasdaq is priced to open up by 1%. It’s been an extremely quiet week for economic data, but we just got two reports this morning with initial and continuing jobless claims coming out at 8:30. Both reports came in slightly higher than expected with initial claims exceeding forecasts by 6K and continuing claims topping forecasts by 28K.
Not only are US futures rising this morning, but stocks in Europe have also been marching higher. In fact, Germany’s DAX is up over 1% and is actually trading at a 52-week high. Bear what?
Today’s 52-week high for the DAX broke a streak of 314 trading days that the index has gone without trading at a 52-week high. As shown in the chart below, the streak that just ended was hardly extreme as there have been nine other periods where the index went longer without a 52-week high, including an 883 trading day stretch that ended in September 2003.
The DAX may be trading at a 52-week high from the perspective of a German investor, but for US investors, there’s still some climbing out of the hole left to go. On a dollar-adjusted basis, the DAX remains just over 6% below its 52-week high. In order to reach a new high, the dollar-adjusted DAX can get there one of two ways. It can either rally from here, or it can merely trade sideways and as the 52-week window continues to drop higher prices from last February, the bar will get increasingly set lower.
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