Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Equities and Yields Trading Higher
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“We all go through a challenge in life because without a challenge there’d be no reason to keep going toward your future.” – Mark Twain
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a mixed session overnight in Asia, European equities are trading modestly higher this morning, and that follows a gain of over 0.5% for the STOXX 600 on Monday while US markets were closed. Here in the US, equity futures are looking to start the short week positively. The S&P 500 is indicated to open 0.4% higher while Nasdaq 100 futures are looking at gains of just about 0.5%. Yields are also higher as the 10-year is modestly back above 4.5%.
The economic calendar is on the quiet side this morning with the only two reports of note being Empire Manufacturing at 8:30 and the NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Index at 10 AM. Both reports are forecast to improve from last month’s reading, but they’re also forecast to remain in contraction territory. For the remainder of the week, the calendar is relatively busy with notable reports including Housing Starts and Building Permits on Wednesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the final read on UMich Consumer Sentiment on Friday. That last report will be notable as the preliminary report released earlier this month showed a major skew in inflation expectations between Democrats and Republicans.
After closing out the prior week just south of 4.5% on February 7th, the 10-year US Treasury yield exploded higher with sound and fury in the first three days of last week. It rose as high as 4.66% on Wednesday after the stronger-than-expected January CPI report. Just as it looked like the early January highs were due for a test, though, on Thursday and Friday, yields reversed lower and more than erased the gains from the first three days. By Friday’s close and heading into the three-day weekend, the big moves from earlier in the week had nothing to show for themselves, and the 10-yield finished the week lower than it started below 4.48%. Just when you think the market is going to go one way, it does its best to keep you on your toes (or knock you off them depending on your perspective).
Brunch Reads – 2/16/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Tut’s Tomb: On February 16th, 1923, archaeologist Howard Carter and his team officially opened the burial chamber of Pharaoh Tutankhamun in Egypt’s Valley of the Kings. After months of meticulous excavation, Carter and Lord Carnarvon entered the innermost chamber, where they laid eyes on the grand quartzite sarcophagus holding the boy king’s coffins. Unlike other tombs that had been robbed, Tutankhamun’s burial chamber remained largely intact, preserving a wealth of golden treasures, ornate shrines, and the iconic funerary mask. The moment was a defining one in archaeology, solidifying Tutankhamun’s place as one of the most famous pharaohs in history.
AI & Technology
The Impact of Generative AI on Critical Thinking: Self-Reported Reductions in Cognitive Effort and Confidence Effects From a Survey of Knowledge Workers (Microsoft)
Generative AI is changing how knowledge workers engage in critical thinking, with its impact depending largely on user confidence. A survey of 319 professionals found that those with higher trust in AI tend to think less critically, while those with greater self-confidence engage more deeply in evaluating and integrating AI-generated responses. Instead of eliminating critical thinking, GenAI shifts its focus toward verifying information, synthesizing outputs, and overseeing task completion, presenting both challenges and opportunities for designing smarter AI-assisted workflows. [Link]
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 2/14/25
The Bespoke Report — 2/14/25
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we look at what Corporate America has been talking about the most on earnings calls this season and much more! Make sure to give this one a read.
B.I.G. Tips – Big Drop in January Retail Sales
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/14/25 – What’s Old is New Again
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If you’d asked me in 1980 what the big impact of microprocessors would be, I probably would have missed the PC. If you asked me in 1990 what was important, I probably would have missed the Internet.” – Gordon Moore
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After coming up just a couple of points short of a closing record high yesterday, US equity futures are heading into the long weekend on a very modest negative note while the 10-year yield is unchanged. There’s a decent amount of economic data to deal with so the placid tone will likely change between now and the closing bell. Retail Sales were just released, and the January readings came in significantly weaker than expected although December’s report was revised higher. Import and Export Prices were largely inline with forecasts.
Also, the last three Fridays have seen stocks sell off into the weekend as investors look to avoid any potential tape bombs. With a three-day weekend on the horizon after today, if the market manages to avoid a sell-off like it has done the last three Fridays, that would be considered a win!
Gordon Moore co-founded Intel (INTC) in 1968, and in the above quote, he was brutally humble about his fallibility regarding large technological trends. While Intel (INTC) was on the cutting edge of the semiconductor industry for its first few decades, the company has missed a lot of major tech developments and trends over the last decade. The stock has paid handsomely for it. After trading above $60 less than four years ago, INTC recently traded below $20 shedding 70% of its value.
This week, though, INTC has done something not seen since its glory days. In the five trading days ending Thursday, the stock rallied 24.5% which is a level it has only exceeded in three other periods in the last 30 years – January 2000, April 2001, and October 2002.
The Closer – Tariffs, MAHA, Consumer Debt – 2/13/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with commentary regarding the latest tariff news in addition to an overview of PPI data (page 1). We then recap the latest earnings (page 2) followed by a look at stocks that are poised to be helped and hurt by MAHA policies (pages 3 and 4). Next, we dive into consumer debt data (page 5) before closing out with a review of today’s long bond auction (page 6).
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 2/13/25
Chart of the Day: Europe Surges
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/13/25 – The Meh Seven
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“With regard to matters requiring thought: the less people know and understand about them, the more positively they attempt to argue concerning them.” – Galileo
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
What looked like it would be a troublesome day for bulls yesterday took a positive turn as the S&P 500 opened down nearly 1% at the open after CPI came in surprisingly high. The opening ticks were as bad as things got, though, and from there, stocks staged a comeback throughout the trading session even as yields only pulled back modestly from their intraday highs.
The S&P 500 successfully tested its 50-day moving average right at the open, but bulls still have something to prove as a pattern of lower highs has started to set in since the high in late January. Individual investors appear to be increasingly worried about the market’s churning lately as the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) gauge of bearish sentiment has surged from 34.0% to 47.3% in the last two weeks!
This morning, futures sit right around the unchanged level ahead of the January PPI and after a rollercoaster overnight session where futures sold off into the Asian close and have rallied since then as European stocks rally (again).
