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Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a mixed session overnight in Asia, European equities are trading modestly higher this morning, and that follows a gain of over 0.5% for the STOXX 600 on Monday while US markets were closed. Here in the US, equity futures are looking to start the short week positively. The S&P 500 is indicated to open 0.4% higher while Nasdaq 100 futures are looking at gains of just about 0.5%. Yields are also higher as the 10-year is modestly back above 4.5%.
The economic calendar is on the quiet side this morning with the only two reports of note being Empire Manufacturing at 8:30 and the NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Index at 10 AM. Both reports are forecast to improve from last month’s reading, but they’re also forecast to remain in contraction territory. For the remainder of the week, the calendar is relatively busy with notable reports including Housing Starts and Building Permits on Wednesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the final read on UMich Consumer Sentiment on Friday. That last report will be notable as the preliminary report released earlier this month showed a major skew in inflation expectations between Democrats and Republicans.
After closing out the prior week just south of 4.5% on February 7th, the 10-year US Treasury yield exploded higher with sound and fury in the first three days of last week. It rose as high as 4.66% on Wednesday after the stronger-than-expected January CPI report. Just as it looked like the early January highs were due for a test, though, on Thursday and Friday, yields reversed lower and more than erased the gains from the first three days. By Friday’s close and heading into the three-day weekend, the big moves from earlier in the week had nothing to show for themselves, and the 10-yield finished the week lower than it started below 4.48%. Just when you think the market is going to go one way, it does its best to keep you on your toes (or knock you off them depending on your perspective).
