The Bespoke Report – Equity Market Pros and Cons – Q3 2025
This week’s Bespoke Report is an updated version of our “Pros and Cons” edition for Q3 2025.
With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now. It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!
On page three of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out. Slides for each topic are then provided on page four and beyond.
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Below is a look at the performance of key ETFs across asset classes so far in Q2 and year-to-date.
After a very rough March and early April, equities both domestically and globally have surged since. The S&P 500 (SPY) is currently up more than 10% in Q2 with just one full trading day left on Monday. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up much more at 17.4%, while the Semis (SMH) are up more than 30%.
As good as it has been in the US, it has been an even better first half and second quarter for much of the rest of the world. The All World ex US ETF (CWI) is up 18.5% on the year versus a gain of 5.7% for the US (SPY), and countries like Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), Mexico (EWW), and Spain (EWP) are sitting on 30%+ YTD gains.
As a reminder, quarterly rallies this strong aren’t the norm, so enjoy it but don’t get too cocky heading into Q3. Mr. Market loves serving humble pie to the face of investors that think they have it all figured out.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/27/25 – Lockstep
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If we really want to know who is responsible for the mess we’re in, all we have to do is look in the mirror.” – Ross Perot
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Less than three months after President Trump unleashed “Liberation Day” on the world and sent the S&P 500 plunging by nearly 20%, a new phrase has made its way back into the lexicon: new highs. Equity futures are higher this morning, with the S&P 500 trading at record highs following a strong session in Europe. Treasury yields and crude oil are modestly higher, while gold is plunging over 1% as investors continue to exit safe-haven trades.
For these new highs to hold through the closing bell, we still have to navigate a decent amount of economic data for a summer Friday with reports of Personal Income, Personal Spending, and PCE at 8:30, followed by Michigan Sentiment at 10 AM. The 8:30 data was mixed but mostly in the wrong direction. Personal Income came in sharply weaker than expected, falling 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Personal Spending fell 0.1% compared to expectations for an increase of 0.1%. On the inflation front, headline PCE was right inline with expectations at 0.1% m/m and 2.3% y/y, but the core reading was a tenth higher than expected on both a m/m and y/y basis at 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively. The initial reactions to the data have been pretty muted.
Looking at US equity market performance, we were struck by how uniform the gains have been over the last five trading sessions. All fourteen of the index ETFs in our Trend Analyzer screen have gained at least 2%. At the top of the list, both ends of the market cap spectrum are represented with Microcaps (IWC) up 3.4% while megacaps in the Nasdaq and S&P 100 are the second and third best performers with gains of 3.26% and 2.90%, respectively. Relative to their short-term trading ranges, all fourteen index ETFs are at similarly overbought levels, and they are all at least 4% above their 50-day moving averages. The only area that returns haven’t been uniform is on a YTD basis, where the Nasdaq 100 is up 6.8% while small caps are in the red.
The Closer – Growth Woes, Hard vs Soft, Shorts – 6/26/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after beginning with a recap of the latest spending bill drama, Fedspeak, and GDP revisions (page 1), we review jobless claims data (page 2). After that, we check in on the conflicting signals in hard and soft data (page 3) before closing out with an update on the newest short interest figures (pages 4 and 5).
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: FedEx (FDX)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers FedEx’s (FDX) Q4 2025 earnings call.
FedEx Corporation (FDX) is a global logistics and transportation company that provides express delivery, freight, and e-commerce services across more than 220 countries and territories. Known for its vast and flexible global network, FedEx connects over 3 million shippers to 225 million consumers and moves $2 trillion worth of goods annually. The company serves a wide range of customers, from large multinationals to small businesses, offering integrated logistics, supply chain solutions, and advanced digital tools to navigate increasingly complex trade environments. FedEx posted a modest 1% revenue growth in Q4 FY2025 amid a volatile global trade landscape, with strong execution driving an 8% increase in adjusted operating income. Tariff disruptions sharply reduced China-to-US volumes, but still, FedEx maintained flexibility, increasing US domestic parcel volume by 6%, and made further progress on its $4B cost-reduction DRIVE initiative. Healthcare and auto logistics were standouts, with $9B in healthcare revenue and GM naming FedEx Supplier of the Year. The Freight spin-off remains on track for June 2026…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for FDX by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Carnival Corporation’s (CCL) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Carnival Corporation (CCL) is the world’s largest leisure travel company and cruise operator, with a portfolio of nine global brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, and Holland America Line. It operates over 90 ships serving millions of passengers annually across North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. Known for delivering high-value vacation experiences at scale, Carnival provides insight into global travel trends, discretionary consumer spending, and hospitality demand across demographics. What sets the company apart is its ability to pair operational scale with brand differentiation, while also owning and developing exclusive destinations, such as private islands and beach resorts that enhance onboard offerings. In Q2 2025, Carnival delivered record results for the eighth consecutive quarters. Yields rose 6.5% amid strong ticket and onboard demand, and margins surpassed 2019 levels by 200 basis points, the highest in 20 years. Carnival hit all three of its 2026 targets 18 months early, including a 20% carbon intensity reduction. Expansion of Celebration Key and the new “Paradise Collection” were key themes, alongside a revamped loyalty program and ongoing fleet upgrades. Despite geopolitical headwinds, bookings remain strong, and the company raised full-year guidance…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for CCL by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: AeroVironment (AVAV)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers AeroVironment’s (AVAV) Q4 2025 earnings call.
AeroVironment (AVAV) is a US-based defense technology company specializing in unmanned systems, loitering munitions, autonomous platforms, and advanced solutions across air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains. Best known for its Switchblade drones and Puma UAS, AVAV serves the US Department of Defense, international allies, and key government agencies. Its portfolio offers unique insight into military modernization, battlefield autonomy, and the global demand for small, rapidly deployable unmanned systems. AVAV closed fiscal 2025 with record revenue of $821M (up 14%) and Q4 revenue of $275M (up 40%). Loitering Munitions saw massive momentum, pushed forward by a nearly $1B sole-source IDIQ contract from the US Army and $477M in LMS bookings. AVAC introduced three new products (P550, JUMP 20-X, and Red Dragon) all of which are expected to generate hundreds of millions in future backlog. The BlueHalo acquisition expanded AVAV’s reach into space, cyber, and directed energy. Notably, over 52% of fiscal 2025 sales were international, showing surging NATO demand as defense budgets grow globally. AVAV reported better-than-expected results on the top and bottom lines and the stock is up close to 40% since the close on Tuesday, 6/24…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for AVAV by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Chart of the Day – Comeback NASDAQ
The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 6/26/25
The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis. There were 11 changes to the list this week.
The Bespoke 50 is available with a Bespoke Premium subscription or a Bespoke Institutional subscription. With Bespoke Premium, you’ll receive a number of daily market updates from us along with our weekly newsletter and a portion of our investor tools. With Bespoke Institutional, you’ll receive everything that’s included with Premium plus additional daily macro analysis and more stock-specific research.
To see all 50 stocks that currently make up the Bespoke 50, simply start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.
The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results. The Bespoke 50 is updated monthly on Thursdays unless otherwise noted. Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning after publication. Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price. Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%. Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs. As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities. Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking. Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 6/26/25
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/26/25 – New Highs in Sight
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It takes a great deal of bravery to stand up to our enemies, but just as much to stand up to our friends.” – JK Rowling
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
New highs for the S&P 500 are increasingly coming up on the horizon as the S&P 500 is on pace to open within 0.5% of its record closing high in February, but between here and there, we have a slew of data and Fed speakers to get through. Leading up to those reports at 8:30 and 10, Treasury yields are fractionally lower, while crude oil and gold are fractionally higher, and the dollar is lower.
FedEx (FDX) reported earnings after the close on Tuesday, and despite better-than-expected EPS and sales, the stock fell 3.3% in reaction to its report on Wednesday. The table below shows how FDX has reacted to earnings over the last four years, and the results haven’t been positive. Over this period, this week’s report was only the third time FDX reported better-than-expected EPS and sales for the same quarter. While the company has reported better-than-expected EPS 10 times in the last 16 quarters, it has only exceeded sales forecasts six times. The company’s inability to consistently exceed expectations, particularly in terms of revenue, suggests that management has a significant problem in managing Wall Street’s expectations. It also appears that investors have become increasingly frustrated with the company, as the stock has now experienced four consecutive negative reactions to earnings.
The one-year price chart of FDX also doesn’t look good. Each of the red arrows below indicates when FDX reported earnings. Even outside of those four days, the stock has seen a steady slide lower, falling from over $300 to the low $200s. For years, FDX was considered a leading indicator for the economy as its transportation network was among the largest in the world. A slowdown in FDX’s business signaled a slowdown in the economy and vice versa. Given that logic, should investors be concerned about the ongoing weakness in FDX’s results and share price reaction?
