The Closer – FOMC, Energy, Credit – 3/17/26
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
- Since the last FOMC meeting on January 28th, the Fed Funds future curve has shifted justifiably and dramatically.
- Stocks with the highest international revenue exposure have seen large moves since the start of the war in Iran.
- February saw a steep decline in the number of consumers receiving rejections after applying for credit.
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 3/17/26
B.I.G. Tips – Powell’s Penultimate Meeting
Chart of the Day – NVDA Stalls, But Semis Keep Trucking
Past the Ides of March
The S&P 500 fell more than 3% in the first half of March, but there’s reason to be more optimistic from a seasonal perspective. As we highlighted in this Chart of the Day for members at the start of the month, March gains have historically been back-end loaded.
The top chart below shows the S&P 500’s average path during the month of March since 1983. The second chart shows the S&P’s price action so far this March.
Historically, the market has traded relatively flat through the Ides of March and then picks up steam with gains in the back half of the month.
So far this week, we’ve seen the bulls get back to work with the S&P up more than 1% as of noon on Tuesday. We’ll see if the gains can hold and continue following the historical script with a strong finish to the month.
Sign up for Bespoke’s Think BIG mailing list to receive an interesting market stat like this in your inbox a few times per week. Click here or on the image below to sign up. An email is all we need!
For more context on market seasonality, the graphic below was featured in our Chart of the Day for members back on March 2nd. It shows the average monthly percentage change for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow 30 since 1990.
While March has typically seen gains of just under 1% for all three indices, April has been an even better month over the years!
In addition to the graphic above, the one below shows how the market has performed in March during midterm election years like 2026 versus all other years. As shown, the market has historically done slightly better in March during midterm years with an average gain of 1.39% since WW2.
Like this analysis? Receive our Chart of the Day in your inbox each day by starting a Bespoke trial! Click below for details on how to sign up:
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/17/26 – Trying to Get in the Holiday Mood
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Competitive golf is played mainly on a five-and-a-half-inch course… the space between your ears.” – Bobby Jones
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As hard as the bears have been working to push futures lower overnight and this morning, the luck of the Irish won’t quit and has pushed futures on the S&P 500 and the Dow into the green. The Nasdaq isn’t quite there, but it is well off its overnight lows. Treasuries are modestly higher, pushing yields slightly lower, while crude oil rebounds more than 2% to $95 per barrel. Gold prices are fractionally higher, and Bitcoin is basically flat.
It’s a quiet day for economic data today, with Pending Home Sales and Leading Indicators the only two reports on the calendar, and both will be released at 10 AM.
In international markets, Asian stocks were mixed overnight, while Europe is mostly higher, with the STOXX 600 up 0.5%. Those gains come despite ZEW Economic Sentiment Indices coming in significantly weaker than expected, as concerns over the war in Iran weigh on sentiment.
Can it get any worse for airline stocks? After already dealing with the government shutdown where TSA agents aren’t getting paid, the war with Iran has caused jet fuel prices to double and raised the threats of terrorism, which, at the margin, causes travel plans to decline. Since its peak in early February, the US Global Jets ETF (JETS) has plunged more than 20%, effectively erasing the gains from late last year after it broke out of a multi-month trading range. At $24.58, the ETF closed yesterday right near support at the low end of that prior range.
With all the headwinds facing the sector, it’s not looking like the Q1 earnings season is a period that airlines are looking forward to. Despite that backdrop, it was surprising to see comments from Delta CEO Ed Bastian this morning where he said that despite the negative impact of rising energy prices on company margins, the weakness has been completely offset by exceptionally strong demand. In his interview on CNBC, Bastian noted that “We’ve seen eight of the top 10 sales days in our history this quarter, and five of those just within the last two weeks, within just the last week of March”. With demand like that, we can only imagine what the company’s quarterly results would have looked like had there not been a war!
Looking at the airline stocks from a longer-term perspective, the timing of the Iran war couldn’t have been worse. At its recent peak in February, the JETS ETF traded above $31 and was within a dollar of its pre-Covid highs. It’s been a long slog for the sector, but after more than six years, it’s almost back to even.
The Closer – $2 Per Day, Positioning, Credit – 3/16/26
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
- Despite the dip today, front month WTI is rising at a $2/day pace.
- Positioning data is beginning to reflect adjustments in energy and agriculture commodity futures as a result of the closure of the Strait Hormuz.
- Consumer lending, private equity, and private credit stocks are down as IG credit spreads have soared.
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 3/16/26
Bitcoin Morning Strength
Alongside other risk assets rebounding to start the week, Bitcoin prices are approaching $74K, which is the highest price point since early February. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies differ from traditional assets in that they trade around the clock. In the charts below, we show an intraday composite for Bitcoin over the full course of a day over various time frames. These charts show Bitcoin’s average price movement throughout the 24-hour trading day over the time frames shown.
As shown below, Bitcoin has averaged around a 0.75% daily gain so far in March, with the bulk of that strength occurring in morning trading. In fact, Bitcoin has averaged around a 0.5% gain on the day heading into the US equity market open (9:30 AM ET) thanks to an early morning rally, and it has continued to rally towards a 1% gain by late morning. After peaking just before noon, Bitcoin has traded sideways all afternoon and night.
Bitcoin’s recent strength throughout the day is the opposite of what has been observed since the high in Bitcoin last fall. Generally speaking, throughout Bitcoin’s current drawdown, it has traded flat in the early morning hours and then lower throughout the US equity market trading day.
As shown below, Bitcoin has become less volatile as it has matured and especially since the latest waypoint of institutional adoption when spot ETFs garnered approval in early 2024. From 2017 up until early 2024 when the first spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, Bitcoin generally traded higher throughout the trading day save for during regular US trading hours when price action was more flat in addition to declines late at night. Since spot ETFs like the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) were approved, though, price action has changed. Again, morning trading has been solid and even neck in neck with the intraday composite from before ETF approval. Likewise, during regular trading hours, Bitcoin price action has been largely uneventful, that is until the end of the day. Whereas previously the close of regular market hours saw Bitcoin ramping higher, since ETFs were approved, the end of the equity trading session has seen steep declines.
As we have done with the S&P 500 (SPY) in the past, below we show the performance of two hypothetical strategies of ownership. The first would be to buy bitcoin and only hold during regular US equity market hours (buy the open, sell the close) while the other would be the reverse of only owning outside of regular trading hours (buy the close, sell the open). As we discussed above, throughout various periods, Bitcoin performance was stable at best when stocks, bonds, and commodities are trading hands. Given this, only owning Bitcoin during regular market hours over the past year would have been the losing strategy, resulting in a 17% loss. The opposite strategy hasn’t exactly been a huge winner, but it at the moment it would still have resulted in modest gains. We would note that in the past two weeks, the two lines have begun to move in opposite directions. That dynamic was also prevalent from mid-December through the first week of the new year too.
Like this analysis? Join our premium members by starting a trial today! Click below for details on how to sign up: