Consumers Sour on Stocks
High-frequency sentiment surveys have consistently shown an overwhelming amount of bearish sentiment in recent weeks. For example, the AAII survey has registered more than 50% of responses as bearish for a record nine straight weeks per the latest release last Thursday. That negative stock market outlook is also showing up in consumer, rather than investor-focused data. Today’s release of the Conference Board’s reading on Consumer Sentiment saw broadly weaker than expected readings across categories (this will be discussed more in tonight’s Closer). In November, readings showed peak positive sentiment when the percentage of respondents expecting higher stock prices in one year hit a record high of 57.2% versus only 21.7% expecting lower prices. Fast forward to today, 48.5% of responses expect lower prices in the next year, versus 36.1% expecting higher prices. While the index for higher prices is middling relative to its historical range, the level for those expecting lower stock prices is in the 98th percentile at the highest level since October 2011.
Taking a net reading, consumers expect stock prices to fall in the next year. However, the current level was even more depressed as recently as the 2022 bear market. What is more unprecedented is how rapid the shift has been towards those negative feelings. As shown in the second chart below, the four-month change in that net reading is the most pronounced decline on record. The only two four-month declines that even come close were those ending in October 1990 and July 2002.
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Sherwin-Williams (SHW)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Sherwin-Williams’ (SHW) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is one of the world’s largest paint and coatings companies, serving professional painters, industrial customers, and DIY consumers across residential, commercial, and industrial markets. It operates through three main segments: Paint Stores Group (its company-operated stores), Consumer Brands Group (retail and distribution partnerships), and Performance Coatings Group (industrial applications like packaging, protective marine coatings, and auto refinishing). It offers insights into residential repainting trends, homebuilding activity, infrastructure investment, industrial production, and consumer spending resilience. Reflecting on the beginning of a year that has been choppy thus far, SHW reported that Residential Repaint remained a bright spot, posting mid-single-digit sales growth and clear market share gains. Tariffs and cost inflation were major themes, but the company expressed confidence in its ability to pass through price increases if necessary. Protective & Marine grew at a high single-digit pace, while Performance Coatings continued to face headwinds, particularly in heavy equipment and auto refinish. SHW missed revenue estimates but EPS results came in better-than-expected. The stock was up roughly 6% on 4/29…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Spotify (SPOT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Spotify’s (SPOT) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Spotify (SPOT) is the world’s largest audio streaming platform, offering a freemium service that provides access to music, podcasts, and audiobooks across more than 180 markets. The company serves consumers, artists, and advertisers through a dual model: a free, ad-supported tier and a paid Premium subscription. SPOT gives a unique window into global consumer entertainment habits, subscription economics, and digital advertising dynamics. SPOT Premium subscribers were up 12% YoY in Q1 to 268 million and total MAUs (Monthly Active Users) reaching 678 million, despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Subscriber growth outperformed, driven by emerging markets like Latin America and Asia-Pacific, while developed markets saw continued organic expansion and share gains. Advertising revenue grew 5%, helped by automated buying tools and DSP (Demand-Side Platform) integrations. Innovation remained a key theme, with AI accelerating product development and internal efficiency, leading to faster rollout of features like AI playlists. Content diversification through audiobooks and video podcasts boosted engagement, with video watch time up 44% YoY. Management reiterated confidence in future pricing power and signaled long-term growth opportunities through new premium tiers like Superfan offerings. SPOT missed estimates and the stock fell as much as 8.8% on 4/29…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Royal Caribbean (RCL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Royal Caribbean’s (RCL) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Royal Caribbean (RCL) is one of the world’s leading cruise lines, operating globally through its well-known brands: Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea. The company serves millions of travelers each year. With a growing portfolio of technologically advanced ships, exclusive private destinations like Perfect Day at CocoCay, and a unified loyalty ecosystem across brands, RCL offers insight into consumer discretionary spending and experiential travel trends. Q1 was a record-breaking quarter, driven by strong consumer demand, especially in close-in bookings and onboard spending. Yields grew 5.6% YoY, fueled largely by ticket pricing. WAVE season was the best in company history, and April bookings for 2025 are pacing ahead of last year. The company is benefiting from positive consumer sentiment around leisure travel, a widening value gap versus land-based vacations, and premium pricing on new ships like Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel. The company beat EPS estimates but missed on the top line despite 7.3% YoY revenue growth, resulting in a +2.1% share-price move at the open on 4/29 followed by intraday weakness that wiped out the gains…
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Chart of the Day – Deep Dollar Declines
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/29/25 – Another Quiet Morning
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“If you’ve made your own hell, then only you have the power to escape it.” – Willie Nelson
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April was on track for being one of the most volatile months on record, but it’s closing out on a quiet note. While yesterday’s move in the S&P 500 was the smallest since the S&P 500 peak, equity futures are even quieter this morning as they indicate an unchanged market at the open. It’s been a busy overnight session for earnings, but the big reports from Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Meta (META) are still to come.
The big economic reports of the morning will be Consumer Confidence and JOLTS. The former is an April number, so it will give us a good idea of how the month’s craziness has impacted sentiment.
Here’s something you don’t see often. The S&P 500 Technology sector ETF (XLK) is up nearly 11% over the last five trading days, but it’s still down over 10% YTD and more than 1% below its 50-day moving average (DMA). Like Tech, the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) has rallied more than 9% and is still down nearly 12% YTD and more than 1% below its 50-DMA.
More broadly, it’s been a phenomenal five trading days for US equities- except for the Consumer Staples sector (XLP). Don’t shed too many tears for Consumer Staples, though, it’s still up 2.5% YTD. For the most part, the sector has done exactly what it’s supposed to do: underperform when the market rallies and outperform when the market declines. Putting it all together, while five sectors have rallied over 5% in the last week, and all but one have essentially rallied at least 3%, ten out of eleven sectors remain below their 50-day moving average, and all eleven sectors remain in neutral territory.
The Closer – Earnings, Borrowing Plans, Short of Targets – 4/28/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with an earnings recap (page 1) followed by a dive into the quarterly borrowing plans for the Treasury (page 2). Next, we check up on the charts of the mega caps (page 3) followed by a look into the most heavily shorted stocks (page 4) and those that are trading furthest below price targets (page 5). We then update our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 6) and finish with an update on the latest positioning data (pages 7 and 8).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/28/25
Chart of the Day: Historic Turnaround Months + May-Day
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Boston Beer (SAM)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Boston Beer’s (SAM) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Boston Beer (SAM) is one of the largest craft brewers in the US, best known for its Samuel Adams beers, Twisted Tea hard iced teas, Truly hard seltzers, Angry Orchard ciders, and newer products like Sun Cruiser and Hard Mountain Dew. The company serves as a bellwether for evolving alcohol trends in the US among light beer traditionalists to younger drinkers looking for flavored, high-ABV options. In Q1, shipments were up 5.3% despite a 1% dip in depletions, driven by strong wholesaler demand for new products like Sun Cruiser and Truly Unruly. Twisted Tea held over 86% of the hard tea market but slowed from past growth as new competitors crowded shelf space. Inflation, weakening beer demand, and $20–$30M in expected 2025 tariff costs (mainly from aluminum and Chinese POS materials) weighed on the company’s outlook. Management remains optimistic, betting on distribution gains, summer marketing, and portfolio innovation to drive a second-half rebound. The stock was up as much as 7.6% after-hours on 4/24 but gave up most of the gains on 4/25 after beating expectations…
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