Chart of the Day: Rotation Fireworks
Bespoke Market Calendar — July 2025
Please click the image below to view our July 2025 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/1/25 – The Spat Resumes
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Every story needs an element of suspense – or it’s lousy.” – Sydney Pollack
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s a new month, a new quarter, and a new half this morning, and while investors would certainly be happy with a repeat in terms of the returns during the half, they would prefer to do without the volatility. This morning, futures are drifting moderately lower after two straight days of record closing highs. The quarter is also getting off to an active start with the June ISM Manufacturing report at 10:00 AM, along with the May reports on Construction Spending and JOLTS.
While these reports will likely impact the market upon their release, so far this morning, there aren’t many headlines driving the market in either direction. While futures are lower, the magnitude of the losses has been pretty modest so far. In Washington, the Senate is still trying to pass the GOP Reconciliation Bill. That ongoing process has led to a resurgence in the war of words between Elon Musk, who hates the bill and is threatening to primary conservatives who vote for it, and President Trump, who responded with comments that Elon owes all his success to government subsidies and said DOGE should look into them.
Besides another flare-up in the spat between President Trump and Elon Musk, Tesla (TSLA) has been in the news this week as the company marked the 15th anniversary of its IPO on Sunday. Based on its performance this year, the stock hasn’t exactly been celebrating the milestone. While well off its April lows, it’s still down over 20% on the year, and this morning, it’s on pace to open down by another 5% after the President ‘truthed’ that DOGE should look into all the subsidies that Musk’s various companies receive. If these pre-market losses hold, it will also put the stock below both its 50 and 200-day moving averages, just as it experiences a ‘golden cross’ where the 50-day moving average (DMA) crosses up through the 200-DMA as both are rising.
Even with its 20%+ decline YTD, TSLA still ranks as the third best performing stock out of the current Russell 1000 members with an eye-popping gain of 19,849% since its IPO. The only two stocks that have performed better are Nvidia (NVDA), which has tripled TSLA’s gain, and Axon Enterprise (AXON), which is up just under 22,000%. Trailing behind TSLA, Broadcom (AVGO), and Texas Pacific Land (TPL) round out the top five stocks that have all rallied more than 10,000%. That’s a 100-bagger!
While the last 15 years have been great for TSLA, the road for traditional auto OEMs hasn’t been much bumpier. While the S&P 500 has rallied nearly sevenfold over the last 15 years, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have essentially gone nowhere.
The Closer – First Half Close, Weak Dollar, AI Ideas – 6/30/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a recap of first quarter performance (page 1) including a look at the historically bad start for the dollar (page 2) and underperformance of US equities relative to the rest of the world (page 3). Next, we check in on the performance of our AI baskets (page 4) including a look at some other under the radar AI plays (page 5). We finish with a review of the latest manufacturing data (page 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 6/30/25
Chart of the Day – 6/30/25 – July: A Port in the Storm
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/30/25 – Resume the Counting!
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It would be good to be a fake somebody rather than a real nobody.” – Mike Tyson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The market enthusiasm that took the S&P 500 to new highs last Friday has followed through to the new week as the S&P 500 looks to gap up about 0.5% at the open. Financials are leading this morning’s gains as the Fed announced last Friday that all of the banks passed the stress tests. Goldman Sachs (GS) is leading the way with gains of over 3%, but all of the other major banks and brokers are up around 1% or more.
The only economic indicators on the calendar this morning are the Chicago PMI at 9:45 and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report at 10:30. Washington will be a focus for the market today as investors look to see if the Senate can pass a version of the GOP tax bill.
Last Friday’s close in the S&P 500 marked the first new all-time closing high for the S&P 500 in over four months and now fully puts the tariff-induced near-bear market in the rearview mirror. It also completes one of the more stunning market cycles where the S&P 500 experienced one of its sharpest sell-offs from an all-time high on record, followed by one of its swiftest rebounds.
With the new high, we can also resume the count of new all-time closing highs for the S&P 500, which for 2025 now totals four. That may sound like a meager number, but two months ago, the thought of new highs for the S&P 500 seemed like a pipe dream. With roughly 125 trading days left in the year, we’re unlikely to get anywhere near last year’s total of 57 record closing highs this year, but you have to start somewhere.
Brunch Reads – 6/29/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Apple Reinvents the Phone: On June 29, 2007, Apple released the first iPhone. Maybe you’re reading this on one right now, 18 years later. At $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB, it wasn’t cheap, but lines still wrapped around Apple and AT&T stores as people camped out overnight, eager to get their hands on what Steve Jobs had promised was “an iPod, a phone, and an internet communicator.”
Until then, smartphones were mostly clunky devices with physical keyboards, tiny screens, and software designed more for business than pleasure. The iPhone ditched the stylus, let you tap, swipe, and pinch your way around a touchscreen, and packed it all into a minimalist design that looked more like a luxury item than a tech gadget at the time. There was no App Store yet, just preloaded apps like Safari, Mail, and iPod, but it was enough to start a tech revolution.
Critics were initially skeptical. There was no physical keyboard, no 3G, no copy-paste. But the public didn’t care. Within days, the iPhone became a cultural phenomenon, and within a few years, it would redefine communication, media, commerce, and even life itself. Everything from maps and music to photography, shopping, and banking sits in our pockets. Today, the iPhone is slimmer, faster, and smarter, featuring AI-powered capabilities and professional-grade cameras. Over 2.3 billion iPhones have been sold since launch, with Apple shipping more than 230 million annually in recent years and commanding a massive global user base of 1.38 billion people. It’s no exaggeration to say the iPhone made Apple one of the most valuable companies in the world, worth over $3 trillion today.
AI & Technology
Cloudflare CEO says people aren’t checking AI chatbots’ source links (Engadget)
AI companies include source links, but traffic data suggests that people aren’t clicking them. Publishers are paying the price. Cloudflare’s CEO says referral rates from OpenAI and Anthropic are dismal, with one site visit for every thousand pages scraped, turning the web into a one-way extraction machine. In response, Cloudflare is rolling out tools to trap and frustrate unauthorized AI bots, calling out the industry for ignoring “no crawl” rules and draining the open internet without paying. [Link]
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 6/27/25
International Revenues
Equities have returned to record highs, but performance during the fall from grace earlier this year and the subsequent rebound off the April lows has not exactly been even. With tariff headlines being one of the main focuses of the market this year, performance has been sensitive to how exposed a given stock is to international trade. One proxy for this international exposure is the percentage of revenues that a company generates inside versus outside of the US. As shown below, from the election last November through Liberation Day when President Trump first announced reciprocal tariff rates, the best-performing cohort of Russell 1,000 members was those that do not generate any revenues outside of US borders (about 27% of member stocks in the index). That group averaged a 1.36% gain over that span compared to an average loss of 6.24% for the stocks that generate over half of their revenues outside the US (a little less than 20% of member stocks) or a more modest 2.65% average loss for all stocks in the index. With the index trading back at fresh records, stocks have been in rally mode in the wake of Liberation Day, with the average Russell 1,000 stock now sitting on a 4.6% gain in that span. Those internationals that had formerly been hit the hardest have since shifted to the best performers, averaging a 6.28% gain.
Breaking the Russell 1,000 into deciles (equal-sized groups ranked by their share of revenues generated internationally from low to high) is another way of telling the story. As shown in the first chart below, from Election Day through Liberation Day, the only decile to average a gain was comprised of the stocks with zero international revenue exposure. Conversely, decile 10 containing the stocks with the most international revenue exposure dropped 8.16% on average, the worst of any decile. That trend of outperformance of domestics and underperformance of internationals has been turned on its head in the past couple of months as decile 10 is now the best performing group since Liberation Day.
Using data from our International Revenues Database, a little over a quarter of the Russell 1,000 generates all of their revenues domestically (or in North America). That reading has been mostly flat in the past few years and is also down versus the high 30% range in the late 2000s. By comparison, the share of stocks that rely on international sales for a majority of their revenues is a little less than 20% which is right inline with the typical reading observed for most of the past decade.
Of course, the type of business a company is involved in is a major determinant of international revenue exposure. For example, Utilities are, in a sense, natural monopolies as well as heavily regulated. Logically, that makes it hard for these companies to break into new markets, especially outside the US. As such, nearly all of that sector’s revenues are generated within US borders, whereas an area like Tech is the polar opposite. Easier trade restrictions and largely frictionless supply chains for things like software mean that the Tech sector sees almost half of its revenues come from outside the US.
