Bespoke Bloomberg Appearances (4/7/16)
Bespoke’s Paul Hickey appeared as a guest on Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio Thursday morning. To view any of the segments, please click on the image or any of the links below.
Jamie Dimon’s Annual Letter Warns of ‘Brexit’ Risks (Bloomberg TV)
PBOC Action and China’s Forex Reserve Surprise (Bloomberg TV)
What Does the Yen Strength Say About Japanese Economy (Bloomberg TV)
Hickey: Crude Oil and Fed Were Working Against the Market (Bloomberg Radio)
The Closer 4/7/16 – “Teetering Transports, Cautious Creditors”
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? Tonight in The Closer we take a look at the transports, which many bears have been flagging as cause for caution with their large divergence below. We details a long-term analogue of relative performance versus the Industrials, valuation, technicals, and a look at Association of American Railroads intermodal rail traffic data. Finally, we break down today’s Consumer Credit report from the Federal Reserve.
The Closer also includes its standard charts, large volume and price movers in the US equity market, and Bespoke’s Market Timing Model. The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a trial below to see it free for the next two weeks!
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Bespoke Q2 Market Outlook
Today we hosted our first ever market outlook call for Bespoke members. In today's call, we reviewed what was a wild Q1 (as if you didn't already know that!) and shared our views on what we think is in store for stocks for the rest of 2016. The presentation was based off the quarterly outlook report we released last week, which was sent to members on Friday, April 1st. Among things you might be interested to know:
- "We STILL have no idea" (which is a reference to our annual outlook report, which the NYT wrote about here).
- Despite that uncertainty, we see plenty of reason to be bullish on stocks for the rest of 2016.
- We examine why the ugly ducklings (small caps, high short interest, low analyst ratings and the losers of 2015) have outperformed so far this year.
- We look forward to a supportive Fed, improving economy and constrained sentiment underpinning equity performance for the rest of the year.
The report, presentation and audio recording of the call are available for paid members only. You can become a member of one of our three subscription levels at this page and receive a 20% discount for the life of your membership!
Pulse Points — Apple Watch Inflection Point?
Today we have published a new Pulse Points report as part of our Consumer Pulse add-on package looking at recent trends in the Apple Watch. Is the Watch finally turning a corner? Find out by signing up for a 30-day free Consumer Pulse add-on trial today.
ETF Trends: US Indices & Styles – 4/7/16
Most Volatile S&P 500 Stocks on Earnings
Start a 14-day no obligation free trial to receive Bespoke’s paid content for the next two weeks.
Yesterday we published our quarterly list of the most volatile stocks on earnings that trade on U.S. exchanges. Below we show just the most volatile stocks on earnings in the S&P 500. Using our Interactive Earnings Report Database (available to Bespoke Institutional members), we’re able to calculate the average change that each stock typically experiences on its earnings reaction day. (For stocks that report before the open, that trading day is its earnings reaction day. For stocks that report after the close, the next trading day is its earnings reaction day.)
Each stock listed below typically moves up or down at least 6.2% on its earnings reaction day. Netflix (NFLX) is the most volatile stock on earnings in the S&P 500 with an average change of +/-13.84%. First Solar (FSLR) ranks second at +/-12.33%, followed by Akamai Technologies (AKAM) at +/-11.65%. TripAdvisor (TRIP) and Michael Kors (KORS) are the only other stocks in the S&P 500 that have historically averaged a move of more than 10 percentage points on their earnings reaction days.
A few other notables on the list include names you would probably expect to see: Priceline (PCLN), Amazon.com (AMZN), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Chipotle (CMG), Facebook (FB), Under Armour (UA), and Salesforce (CRM). If you’re looking for action this earning season, keep this list handy!
Jobless Claims Resume Their Decline
After three straight weekly increases in jobless claims, this week saw a larger than expected decline. While economists were forecasting claims to come in at a level of 270K relative to last week’s reading of 276K, the actual level came in at 267K. Certainly not a major move by any stretch, but we would note that this is now the 57th straight week of sub-300K readings in jobless claims.
Although claims actually declined this week, the four-week moving average saw a slight uptick, rising from 263.25K to 266.75K. This is now 7.25K above the cycle low of 259.5K that we hit four weeks ago on 3/11. Given that we will be dropping a reading of 259K from the count next week, barring a good decline in claims next week we can expect this reading to increase again.
Finally, on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, jobless claims rose by 10.3K up to 246K. For the current week of the year, this is the lowest reading since 2000, and it is also 98K below the average of 344K for the current week of the year going back to 2000.
Dynamic Upgrades/Downgrades: 4/7/16
The Closer 4/6/16 – “Doves Coo, EIA Stew”
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? Tonight in The Closer we summarize and analyze the Fed minutes released this afternoon and break down weekly data from the Department of Energy on energy supply, demand, and inventories. We also preview a huge 24 hours in central banking with the heads of the BoJ, ECB, and Fed all taking the stage overnight and tomorrow.
The Closer also includes its standard charts, large volume and price movers in the US equity market, and Bespoke’s Market Timing Model. The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a trial below to see it free for the next two weeks!
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