Bespoke’s Country Trading Range Screen — Back to Oversold
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With markets closed today, it’s a good time to provide an update of our country ETF trading range screen that shows where global equity markets stand heading into the final trading week of the year. In the screen, the dot represents where each ETF is currently trading within its range, while the tail end represents where it was trading one week ago. The black vertical “N” line represents each ETF’s 50-day moving average. When the price is above the 50-day, the ETF is thought to be in a short-term uptrend, while a price below the 50-day means it’s in a short-term downtrend. Moves into the red or green zones are considered overbought or oversold.
While the US (SPY) is entering the final week of the year in overbought territory, the number of countries that are oversold is more than double the number that are overbought. And only 12 of the 30 countries in our screen are above their 50-day moving averages. So while equity markets here in the US have been doing fine, that’s not necessarily the case in other areas of the world. Asian markets have really been struggling lately, with China (ASHR), Hong Kong (EWH) and Taiwan (EWT) all trading in extreme oversold territory.
Outside of Russia (RSX), Italy (EWI), and the US (SPY), most country ETFs traded here on US exchanges are either flat or down since the election.
Quick View Chart Book – 12/24/16
The Bespoke Report — 2017 — “Economic Indicators”
Our 2017 Bespoke Report market outlook is the most important piece of research that Bespoke publishes each year. We’ve been publishing our annual outlook piece since the formation of Bespoke in 2007, and it gets better and better each year! In this year’s edition, we’ll be covering every important topic you can think of dealing with financial markets as we enter 2017. And to say that 2017 should be an interesting year for asset classes would be an understatement given the huge rotation we’ve already seen in just a few weeks since the Presidential Election was held back on November 8th.
The 2017 Bespoke Report contains sections like Washington and Markets, Economic Cycles, Market Cycles, Washington, Sector Technicals and Weightings, Stock Market Sentiment, Stock Market Seasonality, Housing, Commodities, and more. In this year’s edition, we’ll also be featuring our new “Trump Index” of stocks that we expect to perform best in 2017 based on the new administration.
Over the next week until the full publication is sent to paid members on December 29th, we’ll be releasing individual sections as we complete them. Today we have published the “Economic Indicators” section of the 2017 Bespoke Report, which provides an in-depth analysis of more than 25 widely followed indicators across manufacturing, employment, inflation, sentiment, and housing. This one is a must-read.
To view this section immediately and also receive the full 2017 Bespoke Report when it’s published on December 29th, simply sign up for a 30-day free trial to Bespoke Premium. It’s that easy!
The Bespoke Report — 2017 — “Sentiment”
Our 2017 Bespoke Report market outlook is the most important piece of research that Bespoke publishes each year. We’ve been publishing our annual outlook piece since the formation of Bespoke in 2007, and it gets better and better each year! In this year’s edition, we’ll be covering every important topic you can think of dealing with financial markets as we enter 2017. And to say that 2017 should be an interesting year for asset classes would be an understatement given the huge rotation we’ve already seen in just a few weeks since the Presidential Election was held back on November 8th.
The 2017 Bespoke Report contains sections like Washington and Markets, Economic Cycles, Market Cycles, Washington, Sector Technicals and Weightings, Stock Market Sentiment, Stock Market Seasonality, Housing, Commodities, and more. In this year’s edition, we’ll also be featuring our new “Trump Index” of stocks that we expect to perform best in 2017 based on the new administration.
Over the next week until the full publication is sent to paid members on December 29th, we’ll be releasing individual sections as we complete them. Today we have published the “Sentiment” section of the 2017 Bespoke Report, which is certainly a big topic given the spike in optimism readings we’ve seen since the election for both investors and consumers.
To view this section immediately and also receive the full 2017 Bespoke Report when it’s published on December 29th, simply sign up for a 30-day free trial to Bespoke Premium. It’s that easy!
B.I.G. Tips – The Cost of Waiting for a Pullback
Overbought into Holidays
Get Bespoke’s 2017 Outlook Report with a 30-day free trial to Bespoke’s premium research! Click here to learn more.
Dow 20,000 watch continues as we head into the Holiday weekend as the major averages struggle to advance amid extended overbought conditions. As shown in the trading range charts below, both the DJIA and S&P 500 have been trading in overbought (more than one standard deviation above 50-DMA) territory for several weeks now. For the DJIA, yesterday’s close was the 31st straight day that the index closed at overbought levels, which is a streak that has been in place since the election. Surprisingly enough, the current streak of overbought closes for the DJIA isn’t even the longest of the year. Back in April, the index ended a streak of 35 straight daily closes at overbought levels. For the sake of reference, based on current levels it would take a drop of about 400 points for the DJIA to trade back in its ‘normal’ range.
In the post-election rally, it took a little longer for the S&P 500 to hit overbought levels, so its current streak of overbought closes currently stands at just 27 days. While this streak is shorter, it still goes down as the longest streak of overbought closes for the S&P 500 since July 2014. In the case of the S&P 500, in order to fall back into neutral territory, the index would have to trade down about 25 points to 2,260.
The Closer 12/22/16 – ‘Twas The Data Dump Before Christmas
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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we break down a huge slug of economic data released just before the holidays. Final Q3 GDP, November preliminary durable goods, state leading indicators, November personal income and spending, and the PCE inflation data from the personal income and spending report.
The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research!
ETF Trends: US Indices & Styles – 12/22/16
MLPs continue to outperform, along with Telecoms Energy names. The Swedish krona is up almost 2% versus the USD over the past week, a surprise entrant in the best performers list. Gold miners have also bounced over teh last week along with preferred shares and bonds. Asian country ETFs have underperformed badly, dominating the list of biggest decliners over the past week.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
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Bespoke’s Sector Snapshot — 12/22/16
We’ve just released our weekly Sector Snapshot report (see a sample here) for Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members. Please log-in here to view the report if you’re already a member. If you’re not yet a subscriber and would like to see the report, please start a 14-day trial to Bespoke Premium now.
Below is one of the many charts included in this week’s Sector Snapshot, which is our trading range screen for the S&P 500 and its ten sectors. We discuss in more detail how to read the chart in the full version of the report, but basically the dot is where the sector is currently trading, while the tail end is where it was trading one week ago. Last week at this time, all S&P 500 sectors were above their 50-day moving averages. Unfortunately, Health Care has ruined the party.
To see our full Sector Snapshot with additional commentary plus six pages of charts that include analysis of valuations, breadth, technicals, and relative strength, start a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now. Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.
