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Dow 20,000 watch continues as we head into the Holiday weekend as the major averages struggle to advance amid extended overbought conditions. As shown in the trading range charts below, both the DJIA and S&P 500 have been trading in overbought (more than one standard deviation above 50-DMA) territory for several weeks now. For the DJIA, yesterday’s close was the 31st straight day that the index closed at overbought levels, which is a streak that has been in place since the election. Surprisingly enough, the current streak of overbought closes for the DJIA isn’t even the longest of the year. Back in April, the index ended a streak of 35 straight daily closes at overbought levels. For the sake of reference, based on current levels it would take a drop of about 400 points for the DJIA to trade back in its ‘normal’ range.
In the post-election rally, it took a little longer for the S&P 500 to hit overbought levels, so its current streak of overbought closes currently stands at just 27 days. While this streak is shorter, it still goes down as the longest streak of overbought closes for the S&P 500 since July 2014. In the case of the S&P 500, in order to fall back into neutral territory, the index would have to trade down about 25 points to 2,260.