Short interest figures for the middle of February were released after the close last night, and we just sent out our regular update of the release to Bespoke Premium and Institutional clients.  Be sure to check it out by signing up for a Bespoke Premium membership, because the latest data is full of interesting trends.  In the table below, we have provided a list of the 25 S&P 1500 stocks with the highest short interest as a percentage of float (SIPF).  All 25 stocks listed have more than 30% of their free-floating shares sold short.  To see this many stocks with so much of their free-floating shares sold short is a bit of a surprise given the market is trading at all-time highs, but maybe the shorts know something the rest of the market doesn’t.

Overall, the average February performance of the 25 stocks shown is a decline of 0.19%, which is pretty bad given the strength we have seen in the broader market.  However, much of the weakness is confined to two stocks, as both Tidewater (TDW) and Hornbeck Offshore (HOS) have lost more than a third of their value.  On a median basis, the returns are much more respectable at a gain of 2.63%, but that’s still more than a full percentage point behind the performance of the S&P 1500.

Finally, while a lot of the stocks listed aren’t household names, one trend that stands out is the large presence of retailers.  Of the 25 names listed, seven are retailers of some sort or another.  Given the pressure this group has been under, that’s not a surprise.  What is surprising, though, is that some of these names like RH (formerly Restoration Hardware), Shake Shack (SHAK), and Big Lots (BIG) are actually up on the month.

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Below is a look at our trading range screen for the 30 largest country stock market ETFs traded on US exchanges.  While nearly all countries remain above their 50-day moving averages, we’ve seen a steady drift lower in most parts of the world over the last week.  Even the US (SPY) has ticked lower, but it’s still the most overbought country in the world right now — trading at 2 standard deviations above its 50-DMA.

The country that stands out the most on the screen is Russia (RSX).  While Russia is still the best performing country since the election last November, it’s now just barely ahead of the US and Sweden.  Over the last week, RSX has moved from trading just above its 50-day to trading well into extreme oversold territory.

Below is a six-month chart of RSX.  After gapping up to new highs a few weeks ago, we’ve seen a steady trend lower that has culminated with a big break below support today.

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Below we tabulate the contribution to QoQ seasonally adjusted annual rate growth in Q4. Total growth reported by the BEA in its second estimate of real output was little changed, revised down by all of 2 bps QoQ SAAR to 1.86% QoQ SAAR versus 1.88% in the Advance release. While there was little change to the headline, it came in below consensus expectations for a revision up to 2.1%.  Consumption was more than all of that growth in this estimate, adding 2.05% to headline versus 1.70% in the Advance estimate thanks to upward revisions in Motor Vehicles (10 bps contribution) and Gasoline as well as Food in the Nondurable goods category. Upward revisions to Health Care Services spending alone added 48 bps to growth versus the first estimate of GDP. Unfortunately, other categories were less positive. Investment’s contribution to total growth was revised down by 22 bps, with most major categories of private fixed investment being revised lower at the margin. Trade in aggregate went unrevised, with exports and imports revised up by the same amount on a contribution basis (higher imports reduces their contribution to GDP growth). Finally, government spending was revised sharply lower in a disheartening result that saw the contribution to growth from state and local government spending cut in half.

The lack of volatility in the markets these days has really been something to behold.  If your EKG looked like an intraday chart of the S&P 500 recently, the doctor would probably be reaching for the paddles.  The latest example of zero volatility in the market comes courtesy of the S&P 500’s intraday trading range.  Over the last 50 sessions, the S&P 500’s average percentage spread between the intraday high and intraday low has been 0.540%.  Going back to 1983, when our database of intraday data begins, there has only been one other time where the S&P 500’s 50-day average intraday range was narrower.  That was back in early February 1994 when the average range got as low as 0.539%, so the current narrow range is close to a record.  But it gets even better.  Barring a big intraday move tomorrow (greater than 1% – an intraday range we haven’t seen since mid-December), the S&P 500’s average daily range will drop below the record low of 0.539% that has been in place for nearly a quarter of a century.  Even the computers have gone fishing.

What makes the period of low intraday volatility even more amazing is that it has occurred in the middle of a Presidential transition, which is often a period of increased volatility, especially when the outgoing administration has been in office for two terms.  Judging by virtually all of the media accounts, the current transition has been the most chaotic and disorganized in modern history, riddled with blunders coming from an inexperienced Administration, but through it all the market has been humming.  So, who has it wrong? The markets or the media?