Below we tabulate the contribution to QoQ seasonally adjusted annual rate growth in Q4. Total growth reported by the BEA in its second estimate of real output was little changed, revised down by all of 2 bps QoQ SAAR to 1.86% QoQ SAAR versus 1.88% in the Advance release. While there was little change to the headline, it came in below consensus expectations for a revision up to 2.1%.  Consumption was more than all of that growth in this estimate, adding 2.05% to headline versus 1.70% in the Advance estimate thanks to upward revisions in Motor Vehicles (10 bps contribution) and Gasoline as well as Food in the Nondurable goods category. Upward revisions to Health Care Services spending alone added 48 bps to growth versus the first estimate of GDP. Unfortunately, other categories were less positive. Investment’s contribution to total growth was revised down by 22 bps, with most major categories of private fixed investment being revised lower at the margin. Trade in aggregate went unrevised, with exports and imports revised up by the same amount on a contribution basis (higher imports reduces their contribution to GDP growth). Finally, government spending was revised sharply lower in a disheartening result that saw the contribution to growth from state and local government spending cut in half.

022817 GDP

Print Friendly, PDF & Email