Bespoke’s Quick-View Chart Book — 3/10/17
Short Interest Report: 3/10/17
8-Year 10-Baggers
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Yesterday was the 8th anniversary of the Financial Crisis lows for the S&P 500. It doesn’t qualify as the 8th anniversary of the current bull market, however, since the index didn’t close at a new bull market high yesterday. We won’t know if the bull market officially turned 8 until a new high is made past the 3/9/17 date. (If the S&P ends up declining 20% from the bull market highs reached last week, the bull market will have never made it to its 8th birthday.)
We went back and took a snapshot of the S&P 500’s index members on March 9th, 2009, and calculated the percentage change since that date of each index member that’s still in existence. Below is a list of the S&P 500 stocks as of 3/9/09 that are up 10x or more since then — the elusive “tenbaggers” that famed investor Peter Lynch loved so much.
As shown, Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) is up the most of any stock that was in the S&P 500 on 3/9/09 with a gain of 2,548%. CBS Corp. (CBS) ranks second with a gain of 2,091%, followed by Expedia (EXPE), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), TGNA (formerly Gannett), and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD).
Amazon.com (AMZN) ranks seventh with a gain of 1,310%, Starbucks (SBUX) ranks tenth with a gain of 1,235%, and Apple (AAPL) ranks twentieth with a gain of 1,068%.
If you have a hard time remembering just how dour the outlook was back in early March 2009, you can read what the headlines were saying in this report that we publish for clients every month. At the time, there was hardly a bull to be found, but 3/9/09 turned out to be the greatest buying opportunity of a generation. Remember that headlines are by definition a lagging indicator — they don’t tell us what the future holds.
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The Closer — Comfort Soars, Fixed Income Frustration, Funds A’ Flowin’ — 3/9/17
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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we discuss a very strong print from the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index. We also discuss today’s ECB decision, the quarterly Flow of Funds report released by the Fed today, and the carnage in fixed income over the last couple of days.
The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research!
Bespoke’s Sector Snapshot — 3/9/17
We’ve just released our weekly Sector Snapshot report (see a sample here) for Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members. Please log-in here to view the report if you’re already a member. If you’re not yet a subscriber and would like to see the report, please start a 14-day trial to Bespoke Premium now.
Below is one of the many charts included in this week’s Sector Snapshot, which highlights the year-to-date returns for the eleven major S&P 500 sectors. As you can see, Technology is leading the way with a gain of 10.52%, while Energy is lagging severely with a decline of 7.93%.
To see our full Sector Snapshot with additional commentary plus six pages of charts that include analysis of valuations, breadth, technicals, and relative strength, start a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now. Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.
Chart of the Day: Stocks Closing At The Highs Less Frequently
ETF Trends: US Sectors & Groups – 3/9/17
European equities continue to outperform over the last five days with Natural Gas the best performing ETF we track despite chaos in the Energy sector more broadly. XES, OIH, XOP, IEO, and XLE all have capitulation-type charts with a huge flush on the 6% decline in front-month WTI yesterday and no recovery visible today. Russia, steel, metals and mining, and commodities more broadly have had a painful run of late.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
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Jobless Claims Rise From Extraordinarily Low Levels
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After an absolutely gangbusters initial jobless claims report last week, first-time claims saw a larger than expected increase this week. While economists were expecting first time claims to come in at a level of 238K, the actual reading came in at 243K. While 243K is still very low by historical standards, the 20K increase in claims this week was the largest weekly increase since December. Even still, though, first time claims have been below 300K for 105 straight weeks now and under 250K for six straight weeks.
With a 20K increase in claims, the four-week moving average also ticked higher, rising from a multi-decade low of 234.25K last week to 236.5K this week.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims rose by 31.1K to 243.9K. For the current week of the year, though, this is the lowest level since 1973 and more than 115K below the average of 360.5K for the current week of the year dating back to 2000.
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Bespoke’s Sector Trading Range Charts
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US equity futures are pointed slightly lower once again this morning, and after a week or so of declines, we thought it was a good time to update our S&P 500 sector trading range charts. In the charts below, the white line represents each sector’s 50-day moving average, while the light blue shading represents its “normal” trading range, which is between one standard deviation above and below the 50-day. Moves into the red or green zones are considered “overbought” or “oversold.” The red zone is between one and two standard deviations above the 50-day, while the green zone is between one and two standard deviations below the 50-day.
As shown below, the recent pullback is barely but a blip on the one year chart of the S&P 500. The index remains in a very strong uptrend channel, and it could fall quite significantly and still be trading within its uptrend.
Below is a look at our individual sector trading range charts. Sectors like Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Technology, and Materials all look solid still, but a few other sectors have run into some technical problems. Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities all had nice runs up until their recent highs, but all three sectors stalled without being able to take out their highs from mid-2016. Finally, the Energy sector has been the main area of weakness for the market in 2017, and it’s 2.5%+ drop yesterday leaves it right at key support that we’ve drawn on the chart. We’ll see if it can hold support or not in today’s trading.
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Bespokecast Episode 7 — Helene Meisler — Now Available on iTunes, GooglePlay, Stitcher and More
We’re happy to announce that the newest episode of Bespokecast is now available to the general public both here and via the various podcast platforms. Be sure to subscribe to Bespokecast on your preferred podcast app to gain access to our full collection of episodes. We’d also love for you to provide a review as well!
In our newest conversation on Bespokecast, we speak with renowned technician and market commentator Helene Meisler. Helene has had a long career in financial markets, starting in the early 1980s with Cowen before becoming the only technician on staff at Goldman Sachs in the mid-1980s. She offers a valuable, experienced perspective on markets, trading, and technical analysis. Currently, Helene’s observations are widely followed on Twitter and she writes a daily column at RealMoney.com. We really enjoyed hearing her perspective on the markets and we hope you enjoy the conversation!
Each new episode of our podcast features a special guest to talk markets with, and Bespoke subscribers receive special access before it’s made available to the general public. If you’d like to try out a Bespoke subscription in order to gain access to these podcasts in advance, you can start a two-week free trial to check out our product. To listen to episode 7 or subscribe to the podcast via iTunes, GooglePlay, OvercastFM, or Stitcher, please click below.
