Chart of the Day: Overbought Streak Poised to End
With the S&P 500 giving up earlier gains and trading lower on the day, the index is poised to close at non-overbought levels (>1 standard deviation above its 50-DMA) for the first time since 2/2. For reference, any close below 2,371.42 would move the index into neutral from overbought territory.
At a streak of 31 trading days overbought, this is the seventh longest streak of overbought closes in the current bull market and the eighth streak of 30 or more trading days. In today’s Chart of the Day (available to all paid clients), we took a closer look at prior streaks during the current bull market where the S&P 500 ended streaks of 30 or more trading days above its 50-DMA to see what patterns played out regarding its performance going forward. Sign up for a free-trial below to check it out!
ETF Trends: US Indices & Styles – 3/21/17
Gold miners were the best performers over the last week among ETFs we track. EM country ETFs and broad EM ETFs were the next best performers, owning the top of the recent performance slate. On the other side, banks undeperformed sharply over the past week with the USD, Health Care, and Senior Loans also performing well.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
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Bespoke Stock Scores: 3/21/17
The Closer — CFNAI, Auto Assemblies, Truck Tonnage — 3/20/17
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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we take a look the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, chart up some recent data on US auto production, and update trends in truck tonnage.
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China’s Record Stock Market Streak
About six weeks ago we began highlighting the S&P 500’s streak of consecutive trading days without a 1%+ decline. The streak remains intact through today, and it now stands at 109 trading days. If we make it past Wednesday without a 1%+ decline, we’ll surpass the 110-trading day streak that ended in May 1995. If we make it through the end of the week without a 1%+ decline, we’ll surpass the 112-trading day streak that ended in June 1985. Below is a look at historical streaks of trading days without a 1%+ decline going back to 1928:
But while the S&P 500’s streak of 109 trading days without a 1%+ decline is impressive, China’s stock market is on an even more impressive one. As shown below, China’s Shanghai Composite has now gone 64 trading days without a 1%+ decline! While not as long as the US streak, it’s easily a record for China, which has historically been much more volatile than the US market.
Top-Heavy Market Thus Far in 2017
The S&P 500 is up over 6% already in 2017, but thus far it has only been large-cap stocks posting meaningful gains. We broke the Russell 3,000 into deciles (10 groups of 300 stocks each) based on market caps in order to highlight this trend. In the chart below, decile 1 (labeled “Largest”) contains the largest 10% of stocks in the index at the start of the year. Decile 2 contains the next largest 10%, and so on and so forth until you get to the last decile (labeled “Smallest”), which contains the smallest 10% of stocks in the index. For each decile, we’ve calculated the average stock’s year-to-date percentage change. The two deciles containing the largest stocks in the Russell 3,000 have averaged gains of more than 5.7%. The next four deciles have all averaged YTD gains as well, but the four deciles containing the smallest stocks in the index are all averaging declines in 2017. The average YTD change of the stocks in the smallest decile is -1.96%, which represents significant underperformance compared to the cap-weighted S&P 500’s year-to-date gain.
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Can Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Finally Break Out of Its Range?
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) has seen a big jump lately, rising up to its current level above $110/share from a low in the mid-$80s late last year. As shown in the chart below, the stock has jumped more than 10% just over the last week, causing shares to break above highs made last September.
We’ve been tracking WYNN closely over the last couple of years, and the last twelve months have been remarkable — not because the stock has spiked or crashed, but because it has traded in such a back-and-forth sideways range. As you can see in the two-year chart of WYNN below, since last March, the stock has bounced up and down between $80 and $110 seven different times. Each time it has hit the top of its range, it has failed to break above resistance, and each time it has dipped to the bottom of its range, it has failed to break below support.
The reason we’re highlighting WYNN now is because today shares finally broke above resistance and hit a new 52-week high. WYNN longs are hoping this breakout finally puts an end to the game of ping-pong that has been going on for the last year.
Chart of the Day: The Retail Productivity Revolution And Collapse
Stock Seasonality Report – 3/20/17
ETF Trends: Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities – 3/20/17
Mexico continues to outperform, with 5 other EM country ETFs leading our list of the best performers. A few metals names and Spanish equities joined the rally as well. Undeperforming ETFs over the past week include banks (hit by a flattening yield curve), MLPs, and the US dollar.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
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